Attitudes changing?

[CathyandHeathcliff]

Has anybody noticed attitudes changing over the past few days?

It seems to have gone from Facebook comments on articles calling for a stricter lockdown and so on, to calling for lockdown to be lifted sooner rather than later, comments about the economy failing and weighing up the balance.

In New York City, excess deaths between mid March to Mid April stand at 300%. So, if for example 100 people usually die in NYC, currently 400 people are dying a day.

In the UK and France (and many others) excess deaths are around 30% and higher.

So:

A) the vast majority of the people who are dying are not people who "would have died anyway" from some other flu AND

B) most countries are signifcantly underreporting the lethality of the virus (by up to 50% in many cases, more in the case of the US)
Excess deaths recorded between March -April are nowhere near fully covered by official Covid deaths statistics for the respective countries/cities.

Anyway, anecdotally people seem to be taking matters into their own hands and gradually opening up again. We’ll just have to see how the government responds.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Children won't die from lack of speech therapy, but Covid could kill them. Let's not trivialise the situation

No, they'll die from poverty, lack of medical treatment, abuse, neglect and all the other reasons that make children incredibly vulnerable during a lockdown.
But apparently, some people only view deaths from covid as important....deaths from other things are not even being acknowledged

The daily mail was back in its '
Going back to work' headlines again today after taking it down yesterday!
Queues at five guys. More cars on the road.
It's going on under the government's nose and they are letting it go it seems.

In short, this virus is deadly and without the lockdown we'd probably have seen at least 100,000 excess deaths in the UK at this point, with hundreds of thousands more to come. Yes, mostly of those over 60. But also thousands, probably tens of thousands of 15 - 50 year olds who would otherwise have been totally fine.

People seem to think pretending it's gone away has made it go away for real.

I think this is a very valid point. It's definitely seeming like some people have decided life is going back to normal when in reality things haven't really changed yet.

wintertravel1980 Any non Covid death isn't because of lockdown. It's because of the pandemic. It's because of Covid even if indirectly. There would be even more of those deaths without lockdown. Because of course the NHS simply wouldn't have any capacity. At this stage it might be just an estimate but all the evidence indicates it's accurate. Care homes. We still haven't got proper figures but I'd be unsurprised if our numbers are at least as high, if not higher than the French. It's a shame actually the people who are too scared to go to hospital for emergencies. It's a very understandable and valid fear but if only they realised how much safer it is now during lockdown. It's if we end it early when it will be really dangerous to go (if there's any capacity).

Most experts worldwide have predicted we'll have one of the worse death rates in the world. Look at how other countries are reporting on us. We're seen as an embarrassment. An incompetent negligent joke. Hardly attractive to future investors or trading partners, or tourists. People talk about the economy. That includes our tourism economy. No foreign tourist will want to visit one of the worst infected countries.

...the vast majority of the people who are dying are not people who "would have died anyway" from some other flu ...

We need to look at a longer time horizon (e.g. 6-12 months) to identify the real number of excess deaths.

The 30% difference for London will include 4 categories:

• True excess deaths from C19;
• Accelerated C19 deaths - where people who have got terminal conditions die earlier; and
• Deaths resulting from the lockdown (e.g. people not seeking prompt medical help, domestic violence victims, etc)

offset by:

• Lives saved by lockdown (e.g. reduction in victims of traffic accidents).

FT ran a series of articles that explain the concept of excess deaths very well.

Sorry - a correction to the above - the 30% difference for the UK.

"Children won't die from lack of speech therapy, but Covid could kill them. Let's not trivialise the situation."

Sarah, are you really advocating that lockdown should continue for one or two years? Really?

People are so heavily focussed on ‘we’re all going to catch it anyway so sod it why wait’ they are failing to remember why this all began, to avoid overwhelming the NHS which would lead to further deaths than necessary. In addition, if we get another spike because people can’t follow simple advice and think they know better then the lockdown will have to last longer. The government may not be able to stop people mixing at the work/beach/mate’s houses but they can continue to keep businesses and schools closed and can even close more businesses if they think necessary to keep the spread under control. A longer lockdown or a second lockdown is no good for any body either

People are so heavily focussed on ‘we’re all going to catch it anyway so sod it

We needed lockdown, we still need lockdown. Things ain't going back to normal for a very long time.

But people are now stressing about feeding their kids. Not now, but long term.

People are seeing the forecast of drop in GDP and thinking of shit. How are we going to manage this. How are we going to get through this to the other side.

Yet these people have essentially been told to shut up. And that they are selfish and don't care if people die or not
.

Sarah from accounts proves it above. She is clearly only thinking of herself and her family.

Her decision making is based entirely on that. we all think about our own families 1st.

Care homes. We still haven't got proper figures but I'd be unsurprised if our numbers are at least as high, if not higher than the French.

We do have the numbers up until April 10 (ONS is very slow and bureaucratic but it is also highly reliable - arguably more reliable than records in most other countries). Care home deaths have so far represented 15% of the overall toll although I am afraid it will change.

"Sarah from accounts proves it above. She is clearly only thinking of herself and her family."
Yes, I agree. We all want to protect ourselves and our family, but the Government has to think of the whole country. Thinking this is going on for years is a bit batshit crazy.

Smile where is your evidence that the Bank of England governor and expert epidemiologists are talking nonsense?

How do you think normal everyday hospital treatment will be able to work when we have a highly contagious and deadly virus circulating? Those it doesn't kill are frequently bedbound for weeks. Fit young healthy people. How will poverty and other bad life circumstances be eased in a second wave. It's not hard to see things would only get far worse. Also, do some posters here see the very many people with underlying conditions as expendable? Over 60s (which is really not that old, especially given the pension age has risen to nearly 70)? What about the disproportionate impact on the BAME communities? Expendable?

The Daily Mail has an agenda. Albeit one lacking any foresight. As the BoE governor says, a very temporary return to work and the stop, start, stop, start issue will be terribly damaging economically.

Articles about people apparently getting back to work are subtle manipulation. Intended to encourage people into making rash and dangerous decisions. It will be us normal people taking the risks of course. It's a risk free trial for the wealthy elite. The daily mail is owned by Lord Rothermere. An extremely rich man who himself will be going nowhere near any Covid risk. He won't be travelling on public transport, crammed into an open-plan office, or jostling with others in crowded supermarkets. He also won't suffer financial consequences the inevitable second wave will bring.

Will the houses of parliament be back to normal now too? They've only just set up their virtual parliament. Will the MPs travel into London and cram into the commons and lords?

Why don't people want to limit deaths, recover the economy, return to a functional NHS, save jobs, minimalise mental health crisis? Because that's what avoiding a second wave and holding off on initial lockdown until we're ready will do.

@SarahInAccounts your attitude if anything seems more selfish. Yes I get your situation, I’m sorry your in it, I am also not saying we should come out of lockdown as soon as possible but we do have to come out soon before the country nose dives irretrievably. No one is saying you or your children have to come out of isolation if you are worried, you can stay put if that’s what you need, not everyone needs to be completely isolated, Saying we are selfish for putting your children at risk isn’t fair, lots of people all the time are immunocompromised for various reasons (I was myself whilst under life saving treatment) but asking us to stay in for you is like asking everyone to stay off the tube for me so I can get to my hospital appointment so I’m not at risk, it’s just not realistic!

... the government refusal to articulate an exit plan.
They can't though, can they? Nobody has a crystal ball and nobody knows how things are going to pan out. We are in the middle of a leap into the unknown. So they can't articulate an exit plan, can they? All they can do is to discuss many different alternatives to different scenarios, in the hope that one of them might be suitable at some unidenfied point in the future.

And there is no point in them telling us what some of those plans are, because people will grasp the wrong end of the stick and not let go. Which will achieve precisely nothing.

Sarah has foresight. And she's thinking of everybody. The opposite of selfish. Some groups will suffer more than others in a second wave - the vulnerable, the poor, the disabled, the elderly, people with long-term health conditions (mostly leading normal lives like Boris's predecessor), BAME communities. Personally I don't see their lives as expendable, but those who do seem unaware we're all at risk - be it from Covid or the economic disaster we'd see if we have premature end to lockdown.

Those referencing DV. You want a return to pre pandemic two women a week dying? That number of deaths is acceptable? Why not call for practical solutions. Measures that would help during and after lockdown. Put up victims in holiday homes, airbnbs, hotels. Provide online support for those unable to make phone calls.

People keep saying they want routine hospital work to start again. Don't we all. No-one seems able to say how they think that would happen in a second wave. Why don't people want a sustainable easing of lockdown? A few weeks pretending everything's normal - whilst the virus spreads and spreads unchecked - and then a far worse situation than now. Why do they want that? Why not wait until we have mass testing, PPE, masks, etc? It's not an impossible task. As people have noticed, other countries have managed it.

understating the impact that a ‘a year or so’ in lockdown would have on the economy - entire industries destroyed; many of the things that make life full and worthwhile (sport, theatre, music performance) just gone; much less money to fund the public sector; a cohort of children emerging with mental health issues, chronic health problems and poorer educational prospects - that’s not hyperbole, that will be our reality if lockdown continues beyond a couple of months.

That is the very definition of hyperbole. A lot worse happened in both world wars but the industries you describe survived. I can't believe you really think that. A couple of months will have zero adverse effect in the long term.

Saying we are selfish for putting your children at risk isn’t fair, lots of people all the time are immunocompromised for various reasons (I was myself whilst under life saving treatment) but asking us to stay in for you is like asking everyone to stay off the tube for me so I can get to my hospital appointment so I’m not at risk, it’s just not realistic!

Such a fatuous argument is barely worthy of response.

It isn't just my children I'm speaking for. It's the elderly, the weak and the immuno compromised. There are more than a million of them that some here seem to think don't really matter that much. They do.

Anyway, this selfish willlingness to sacrifice the weak has nauseated me long enough. I'm glad the majority don't feel the same way as some of the soulless characters here. And neither does the government.

I'm off to name change and hide this thread.

@sarahinaccounts

I really really do feel for you, especially for the predicament your children are in. I have family on shielded group too, although in some ways it's not the same as children. I'm also vulnerable but not shielded. My DC needs medical treatment at a children's hospital and we don't know what will happen with it but from our point of view in a way longer lockdown would be better.

But PPs aren't dismissing the weak, on the contrary they are talking about other problems that you are just dismissing. Children will die from a very extended lockdown. Who on earth will pay for the NHS if the economy crashes? Then if your family do get ill, there will be no treatment available

I don't know what the long term answer is and I do think lockdown should be extended in the short term but I think you are being quite unpleasant about the difficulties faced by others which are valid too (and in many cases about as far from trivial as you can get)

The government are starting to lose control of the situation.

Two sayings are relevant to this thread. I can only hope the silent majority take heed. I also hope they have foresight and common sense.

Propaganda: Say something enough times, people will start to believe it.
Yes, the media has always had to some extent more power than the government but the government has not yet lost control. Despite the best intentions of the super rich like Lord Rothermere.

• More haste, less speed. Couldn't be more relevant when it comes to lockdown.