"Some" disruptive social distancing to be in place till the end of the year

[Frompcat]

Says Chris Witty. Nothing unexpected but I really wish they would say what they're talking about when they say shit like this. What does "some" mean? Schools? WFH? Family visits?

It's a few weeks not a lifetime

It may as well be if you lose your home, can't have treatment for cancer etc.

Most people are still working their normal jobs

I am at the moment but who knows how long for and then what? The government won't pay 80% forever.

Well some of us do want life to get back to normal thanks Stark not a big fan of travelling are you?

But it isn't a few weeks

Well to be fair this is the whole point of your thread

We’ve no idea...obviously the vast majority of us can do a few weeks

Loads can probably do a few months

But what about 6 of them?

And i think it would be fairly straightforward to say ‘schools will open in one week...all other rules remain in place’

And then ‘ shops will open in one week...all other rules remain in place’

Surely???...please tell me that im not being hopelessly optimistic abou5 the british people

The majority of us are sensible arent we?

Most people are still working their normal jobs

no they are bloody not! What planet are you on?

I read something online about California where they said life after lockdown would look very different. For example in a restaurant tables would be far apart and you could only eat with people from your household, menus would be disposable and waiting staff would have gloves and a mask. I wonder if he meant something like that.

Personally I can see how restaurants could adapt to incorporate social distancing but I've no idea how bars and clubs could.

around 20% of the population have been furloughed or made unemployed by this

, it follows that 80% are actually still working
Unemployment numbers will creep up if it goes on too long

It may not seem that way depending where you live and who you know socially , as the percentages are higher in some areas than others.

@1forsorrow some screening is happening where I work. We’re still seeing patients who are referred onto the two week wait Cancer referral pathway in Gynae, urology, breast care etc.

Poppiesway, that's interesting. I've had a letter saying I will be sent a new kit when testing resumes.

How long have we been locked down ? 4 coming up 5 weeks ?

Being locked down is shit. There is no getting away from that, some will find it easier than others, some will really struggle. Some will find it too hard to bear. For some it will feel like a lifetime of worry waiting for the NHS to resume normal service so that they can get the care they need or hopefully not need in the case of those waiting for diagnostic tests.

Five weeks ago the population was asked to behave in a certain way to avoid this situation, some chose not to, so we are where we are.

@MegUffin

Why do you lazily assume anyone criticizing is from the left? Even the right wing Tory papers (the Times and Telegraph) are pointing out issues.

As if they'd do any better... my goodness, can't even begin to imagine Corbyn and Abbott dealing with this global crisis.

Oh and your predictable reference to Jeremy Corbyn (who "newsflash!!" is no longer in office), is, to use a relationship analogy, like saying I'm with someone abusive but he's not as bad as my ex- the truth is anyone in a relationship deserve the best and so does the country now.

The NHS has more excess capacity than it has ever had because they are turning people away and cancelling almost anything that is non-covid as only the covid death toll matters.

We do need to start easing some of the restrictions and move to a Swedish style where the cases are at a manageable number without the entire prospects of our children’s generation being ruined.

If they keep these measures for a year, the total numbers of years of lives lost from untreated cancer, heart attacks, strokes as well as the loss in life expectancy due to poverty will easily exceed even the worst covid forecasts.

It looks like the government has no plan which is why they can’t tell us anything.

I think they have to paint the most negative outcome, so that by contrast anything over and above that seems a bonus?

If someone had said to me in January that for eight months of the year I couldn't go to work, drive where I wanted, go out for any form of social interaction or pleasure I'd be bloody furious. But now? You can happily take all of that from me, but I just desperately want to be able to see my family. I want my mum to be able to see her granddaughter who was only two weeks old when lockdown happened, she's met her twice. I just want to spend time with my family.

This whole "lockdown" has made me realise as humans how little we actually need to be happy, and how nothing that makes me happy has any monetary value.

Does anyone ever think that we should say fuck it and get on with it?

The grim reality of our situation is that even if we suppress the spread of the virus now, come next winter it will hit harder in another wave.

It might be better to bite the bullet and push through with it now.

People are going to die. It could be me. It could be you, or even both of us. But unfortunately society cannot continue with a very extended period of lockdown. Not enough thought is being given to the economic and other health impacts of this.

You could be even more cold hearted, and say we have become too soft. Think about it. Throughout human history there have been waves of illnesses and diseases that kill thousands/millions. This is nothing new, and is just one of the risks we face as humans.

On the subject of cancer diagnoses:

www.itv.com/news/2020-04-22/60-000-cancer-patients-could-die-because-of-lack-of-treatment-or-diagnosis-oncologist-on-coronavirus-dilemma/

Sorry haven't RTFT but as I understood he was saying that there are various measures for keeping R below one, but they need to work out which combination of these measures will strike the best balance between economic damage, direct deaths from covid, indirect deaths from covid etc.

I imagine they won't know what that combination is until they have looked further at what is happening with mortality, what parts of the puzzle like tests are in place and when etc. It will probably have to vary as time goes along and capacity and compliance vary.

So I doubt they can be very specific at this time without people misinterpreting them. But you won't be banned from seeing your family for a year OP, I am fairly sure of that. The problem there is more likely to be risk of virus transmission rather than any govt imposed rules. I don't know obviously, but I am guessing there will be a lot of difficult risks and benefits for us all to weigh up ourselves.

Does anyone ever think that we should say fuck it and get on with it

Yes me. I have 15 years debt solution experience and what’s around the corner is terrifying me.

I'm not sure why you think that they definitely have a plan

Does anyone ever think that we should say fuck it and get on with it?

I think some people do yousef - especially people who post on here!

In real life however, I haven't met one person saying this.

dellacucina

If they haven't got one they should be honest and say so.

@yousef

Of course thought is being given to the economic and other health impacts of this! That's what this is all about for goodness sake. Lockdown measures damage the economy and non covid related health, a raging covid outbreak damages the economy and non covid related health. It's a balance they are trying to strike, and we will only stay under lockdown so long as they think it is necessary to give the economy and non covid health issues the best chance to withstand this pandemic. Whether they will get it right who knows, probably not, but that is the goal.

I think the reality is measures are probably going to be in place until well into next year but it will be things like pubs etc will be at lower capacity, public transport won't be able to run with hundreds of people squeezed together, supermarkets keeping up the rules etc.

All worth it if it begins to allow for life to start to run on as normal, which I think it will do within the next, few months.

As it is I think the.lockdowns rules have been sensible and pretty fair.......it's the jobs lost in hospitality and retail which won't be able to run at full pelt that's going to be our biggest concern for a.long while to come.

I think one of the things missed in all this is that initial projections were that not only would the serious illness rate cripple the NHS unless we entered lockdown, but that one fifth of the workforce was estimated to be absent on sick leave at any one time as the virus raged through the population.

So there were economic costs involved in not locking down the country as well.

The UK has possibly the highest deaths per capita in the world according to that FT report, which is likely the closest anybody can currently come to analyzing the actual total deaths from the virus in the UK. 41,000 deaths including those who have died outside of hospitals. The Tory Government response has been absolute shit. Almost a parody of ineptitude. The investigation will be years in the making, the reasons behind the failures manifold. None of them will have anything to do with Labour, which has been out of power for ten years.

It's funny how some countries are able to give briefings without treating their general public like thick idiots

Germany, Portugal, Netherlands, Ireland etc etc - all being told what is likely to happen next in terms of removing some restrictions in the coming weeks/months

Meanwhile in the UK - 'we are following the science'

All a load of bollocks. No wonder people are fed up

Apparently those deaths don't matter. You can only talk about and have sympathy with covid deaths. Everyone else just has to suck it up.

Christ Whitty has said pretty much the exact opposite of this, more than once. He’s said that deaths occur directly from the virus and indirectly because of e.g. people not accessing treatment for other conditions and the economic impact of lockdown. He’s said it is a balancing act.

They are not ignoring or disregarding the deaths arising from lockdown measures. I would imagine that plotting a route which minimises the overall death rate would be the aim, but that must be an incredibly difficult thing to do.

In response to the OP - I would like to see them publish a strategy with, say 4 levels ranging from normal to the lockdown we have now. Specify what the restrictions are in each level, testing and tracing strategies at each level, and what will trigger a change from each level to the next.

A question to the assembled company: the analysis of the contact tracing app under development says it needs 60% of the population to use it for it to be effective, and presumably more would be better. Would you be prepared to use it, if the reward was that you could go shopping, meet friends and family, even go to pubs and cafes? And would you comply with 14 day self-isolation when the app told you to in order to allow the economy, leisure and education to resume?