"Some" disruptive social distancing to be in place till the end of the year

[Frompcat]

Says Chris Witty. Nothing unexpected but I really wish they would say what they're talking about when they say shit like this. What does "some" mean? Schools? WFH? Family visits?

OK. I misspoke. It may not make the lockdown last longer but it will certainly mean more avoidable deaths. The point of the lockdown is to ensure that the critical care capacity of the NHS is not breached. If everyone just decides that they can't be arsed with staying home anymore then we won't be able to treat everyone and more people will die. Unfortunately it seems some people are more motivated by the prospect of a shorter lockdown than they are by the prospect of not causing other people to die.

People genuinely seem to think that the lockdown is about eradicating the disease. It isn't.
Yes I realise this 🙄

Go back to normal life let the virus run its course ie survival of the fittest Does anybody really want that ?

Of course not, but what's the alternative if a vaccine isn't found quickly or even at all? We can't live like this indefinitely, a lot of people won't be able to afford to live.

I think Boris set his stall out early on this, you will lose loved ones before their time. If the population can't cope with lock down and it ignores all the advice and then loses loved ones before their time, well they can hardly complain to anyone else, especially the Government if that happens. Bit of a get out of jail free card really.

If R0 can be maintained at

If the virus runs riot may not have to worry about affording the live
Hey ho kids will get their inheritance early

bluebeck I don't think any of us think it'll revert to normal immediately, but he's saying measures will have to continue well into next year. That's really alarming for the vast majority of people to hear and it annoys me he said it without any kind of clarification. Just a massive, sweeping bombshell he dropped that's now causing widespread fear and distress while conveniently taking the focus off the Govt's inept handling of PPE and testing.

I’m trying to be positive but after the briefing today I took three main things away-

1. Very unlikely to have a vaccine within 12 months.
2. No exact plan on trace testing.
3. No nearer antibody testing than a month ago.

It doesn’t make good listening today, how we start to lift. lockdown without any of those things will be very difficult to work out and implement.

I think the mountain the government is going to have to climb is that they have sold social distancing as an individual absolute - you personally must stay 2m from anyone not in your family. Which will make the shift to society-level distancing much harder to explain. That is all about reducing the amount of overall contacts, and particularly those contacts where transmission so far seems likely to be higher (eg between adults in close proximity, rather than reducing contacts between children given the lack of evidence to date of child to adult transmission and increasing support for the hypothesis that this is not a common transmission route).

So society-level social distancing may (stress the ‘may’!!) feel very different from the current don’t go within 2m if they’re not your family. Stuff like no gatherings larger than 10 people (or whatever x they decide on), extended working from home where possible to reduce commuting and spread of infection between geographical communities, limited numbers in restaurants, etc. It’s interesting to look at how other countries are handling their non-lockdown or leaving lockdown social distancing.

I feel like some posters are either not reading any of my posts or are deliberately misinterpreting them. I'm not arguing against the lockdown. I'm saying they need to be honest with us about the details of what plans they have, even if they say "here are several different things we are considering depending on the numbers".

I guess I always went with the 18 months period that was discussed at the start. That's how long it takes to get through this kind of pandemic. Spanish Flu took around that time I think so 18 - 24 months is sensible.

I don't think I will be able to go on holiday, go to theatre, a gig, a cinema, possibly even a restaurant for that period of time.

It's not great, as I love all those things, but it's not alarming and doesn't cause me fear or distress. Alarm, fear and distress would be caused if one of the people I love was hospitalised and at risk of dying through COVID-19.

So I see the Social distancing, whatever it is and however long it lasts, as an acceptable trade off.

I think it's tricky.

For example, DH and I have been in full lockdown since a week before the actual lockdown. We've not left our property apart from to go for a walk in an area where there have been no other people.

Likewise, the same is true for my parents. Theoretically, there should be next to no infection risk if we met up with them at either home or ours.

But, and it's a big but, what if one of us picked up covid from a milk bottle delivered to our door and is an asymptomatic carrier? And then that person infects the other household? But then you say, well, at some point we are going to have to come out of lockdown and isn't this going to happen then?

If a vaccine is a year away, we can't stay in a semi lockdown period until then. It's just not feasible.

There really needs to be a plan of how we are going to exit this lockdown, and people need to know soon, because otherwise people are going to start breaking the terms.

R0 is already lower than 1 as far as we can see, so it's a case if keeping it there, so letting the virus die out a little in the general population over the next few weeks

then we can relax a little and see what happens, if that's ok, you could relax a little more

Although theoretically R0 being less than 1 means it dies out, realistically there will be random variations that mean it may well rumble on until vaccine is found , hence the end to test and trace..it stamps out any hotspots quickly

Yes 14 day quarantine is likely to feature once levels circulating within the Uk are squashed ( in my opinion anyway!)

I don't think I will be able to go on holiday, go to theatre, a gig, a cinema, possibly even a restaurant for that period of time.

Surely those things won't be around in 18 months time if no one uses them. Not saying that's wrong...just probably how it will be. Very sad.

They are not treating the general public like children, it’s because at this moment in time they don’t know exactly what shape it will take. They could say right we are going to do x y and z, but then later on when about to start x y and z the damn virus dies a curveball and a b and c heave to be done to great moans and insults from the public

I think we all, know that there will have to be some form of social distancing,we may have to wear masks when out, there maybe other stuff. We may have another lockdown. No one knows so give it a rest and wait until they announce

Schools HAVE to go back. People HAVE to go back to work. September is the absolute latest but I expect by early June this will be phased in

I agree with this

I think football with full stadiums will go ahead in September

Other countries are reopening, China after 5 months , why wouldn't we

Surely those things won't be around in 18 months time if no one uses them

No they won’t be. The government isn’t going to keep propping them up for that length of time.

Sorry OP

I don't think they know - they will decide at the time, based on what has worked well in other countries etc.

If it makes you feel better, just assume it will be a variation on what we have now.

But people are also dying due to the lockdown. The NHS is coping because some people are too terrified to go into hospital so are needlessly dying at home of heart attacks etc; preventative screening etc has been postponed, as well as many treatments, operations and packages of support- the fall out of which will be huge. Yes solely looking at covid we might be 'winning' (although the numbers don't seem to be dipping as expected following a few weeks of lockdown), but at the expense of many other people. Domestic violence cannot cope with the rise in calls for support, people are imprisoned in their homes with an abusive partner and no real way out, and children at home all day with alcoholic parents. Mental health provision in the community is down the pan. Some with terminal conditions aren't able to access treatment because it's too risky, but they are being sentenced to death anyway, and can't properly say goodbye or do anything for their final months. It's not as simple as lockdown saves lives, and lifting elements of it will kill more people, it's a balance of which there isn't much faith left in the government that they can deliver. It's scary. Yes some people are going to start doing whatever because they are selfish and can't be arsed anymore, but it's much more complex than that for some people.

But people are also dying due to the lockdown

Apparently those deaths don't matter. You can only talk about and have sympathy with covid deaths. Everyone else just has to suck it up.

No one knows so give it a rest and wait until they announce

Im virtually positive ive said something similar in the past to my children

I think we all, know that there will have to be some form of social distancing,we may have to wear masks when out, there maybe other stuff. We may have another lockdown.

I think what people want at this point is some sort of plan, or even some sort of indication that there is a plan, especially when we are seeing that in other countries. It's reassuring to hear Hancock talking about using testing and tracing to suppress the virus here but what specifically is being done to put measures for that in place?

I don't at all buy that they can't be honest with the public because then the public would just start breaking (sorry, 'flouting') all the rules in place at the moment. The government needs the public to support the measures it's put in place to get through this. If people start thinking "well the government doesn't have a plan and it's just going to keep us living in lockdown indefinitely" they're a lot less likely to go along with what's being proposed.

I think they need to get their story straight. Sunday morning Gove said there might not ever be a vaccine and wouldn’t answer if pub/bars/hotels ect would be open by winter.

I don’t get it. I dont get why they would allow the country to go down the pan and hundreds of thousands of families lives are ruined financially when no where near that would ever die from it. A tiny fraction. The deaths have been slowing down for a week do why the indefinite social distancing measures?

I work within the debt industry and I tell you, many people lives can crumble at the loss of just three months worth’s of paycheck. The fall out from this is going to be bad.

I don't imagine many people are surprised to hear that normal life won't resume fully for a long time. Nothing about what's going on suggests that we can all dance into a pub in 6 weeks time and pretend its all great.

But as a PP said, there comes a point where the economic damage of lockdown becomes so great that the number of deaths could potentially be higher because of that - from poverty, and from a loss of taxes to fund the services we need.

I can't imagine making the decisions, they just feel impossible. But the current economic state of play is unsustainable for too long. Billions of taxes lost, Billions in unemployment and furlough money paid out. No government can afford it. And it will cycle and get worse. Now I try and homeschool my 8yo but their education is one of the least of my worries if every other child in the UK is not at school either. But with a keyworker husband, I'm also trying to WFH with a 3yo too. That too is unsustainable, and either I'll have a breakdown, or my firm will have enough of tolerating my disjointed and generally unhelpful working hours, and I'll lose my job. And that's one tiny example of what's going on around the country.

There's a huge decision to be made, but IMO this degree of lockdown can't go on too long because the knock on impact is so enormous.

Social distancing, supermarket queues, fine. But the lack of education/childcare and the full closure of all entertainment-related sectors is unsustainable in its current state for too long.

Apparently those deaths don't matter. You can only talk about and have sympathy with covid deaths. Everyone else just has to suck it up.

I know, it's because the others won't be directly attributable to the government, whereas covid will. People are making huge sacrifices beyond just staying at home, people deserve to have some clarity, even under the understanding that it might change. Or at least some consistent guidance such as on testing etc. I am sick of people saying those who want it over don't care and are selfish though.

And dentists , and opticians need to reopen

Those sight tests catch other illnesses

Smear tests and mammograms etc need to resume

It can't carry on like this