"Some" disruptive social distancing to be in place till the end of the year

[Frompcat]

Says Chris Witty. Nothing unexpected but I really wish they would say what they're talking about when they say shit like this. What does "some" mean? Schools? WFH? Family visits?

If you dont care about never touching another person again, that's easy to achieve- stay at home, have no visitors. Noone can touch you against your will. Odds on you wont get the virus.

We don't all think like that, we don't all have to live like that. Fortunately we are all able to make our own decisions.

I reckon it will just mean limiting numbers in shops, keeping distance where possible at work, and no big parties, weddings, gatherings, concerts, that sort of thing. Depending of course on if there’s more waves of the virus.

I imagine schools, shops and business will be open again by September but with social distancing measures in place.
Older/vulnerable people expected to shield
No large gatherings
Pubs/restaurants/cafes doing takeaways or having seating 2m metres apart/outside
Masks in public
WFH encouraged and non-essential travel discouraged
No large gatherings

I don't care if I never touch anyone again as long as I don't get this virus.

You might feel like that but many others don't. I can't bear the thought that I might not see my uncle again.

Seriously doubt this will happen in a universal way, if you kept all of these closed for the rest of the year there would be no pub industry left. There will come a point where lockdown will cost more in lives and economic damage than having reduced measures. Causing an economic catastrophe will cost thousands of lives, and certainly if the swedish method proves able to limit transmission, I suspect we will be going down this route.

Same here Frompcat. I have absolutely no odd with no pubs/cinemas/restaurants/gigs/sports matches or anything like that. I do want to see my mum and dad though!
Agree we’re being treated like children. I won’t be ‘confused’ if they say ‘restrictions need to stay in place for at least the next 6 weeks and then, depending on numbers we’ll look to do x, y and z’. I’m not going to think ‘woo hoo, I can have a massive house party tonight!’

CaryStoppins

I hope you're right.

We expect the physical distancing to be a part of the construction industry for some time yet. It will include things like making sure welfare facilities are enough to make sure there is a big enough separation, making sure there aren’t too many on site. In offices it will be spacing of desks etc. It’s not rocket science to think what they might require.

I think today Chris Whitty would have been recommended to be a bit ‘doom and gloom’ by behavioural scientists because otherwise we will become complacent. Things actually aren’t too bad. The nhs isn’t overwhelmed, yes there have been deaths (obviously incredibly sad and important) but far less than there could have been and still a small amount compared to how many people have likely had it. They don’t have answers yet and people are getting frustrated with lockdown. If they said we aren’t too worried it’s likely people would start going out more and seeing family as they would be less worried.

Ultimately measures will be in place but they will be balanced against the economy as we can’t fund the nhs without a functioning economy and taxes/NI. I think they don’t want to say that all >70s and high risk groups will essentially have to stay in indefinitely so apply it to everyone.

Schools HAVE to go back. People HAVE to go back to work. September is the absolute latest but I expect by early June this will be phased in. Maybe not huge concerts/festivals, maybe masks on public transport but they are as desperate as us to go back to ‘normal’. eventually young low risk people will take the relatively low risk and start going out unmanaged so it’s safer to allow this with condition.

September is five months away. Five months. It’s too much pressure. I know the reasons. I know the importance. I know why this is necessary. But it doesn’t make it any easier.

We will be able to go shopping, go to the park, see friends & family (though no those shielding) - but will avoid any contact with people in public.

I find this to be a helpful summary of some of the options, what would make them viable etc.
institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A%20Sustainable%20Exit%20Strategy%2C%20Tony%20Blair%20Institute%20for%20Global%20Change.pdf

The reason they're not clear is lots of the scenarios outlined by posters above are possible. Maybe no big events, maybe shielding elderly and vulnerable, maybe schools back in June, maybe September.... The range of possibilities is huge, and depends on lots of factors. Listing out all the possible future scenarios isn't going to give people clarity because clarity isn't yet possible.

I think they don’t want to say that all >70s and high risk groups will essentially have to stay in indefinitely so apply it to everyone.

I saw this morning that 'experts' are saying this should be extended to over 60s, possibly over 50s. I couldn't find it from a reputable source so presume it's a load of crap but I can't see DH who is over 60 agreeing to stay in indefinitely!

Until scientists/medical experts decide how the virus is being passed between people (which they're still arguing about), it's impossible to even guess at when/how restrictions will start to be lifted.

If it's by touching surfaces, that will lead to different scenarios as to if it's passed by touching hands, which in turn leads to different scenarios if it's passed by hugging/kissing, which is again different to whether it's passed by coughs/sneezes, or of course, whether it's so prevalent it passes by all of those.

Also, it would be good if the scientists/medical experts decided the highest risk groups - is it men/women, is it young/old, is it pre-existing conditions and if so, which ones.

We really need to know the facts before anyone can even start to think how we did ourselves out of this. If, say, it's caused mostly by blokes shaking hands and those with diabetes are at greatest risk, then the action plan to stop it spreading is very different as to whether it's being passed by women kissing eachother on the cheeks, or by random strangers touching the same handrails on buses.

I saw this morning that 'experts' are saying this should be extended to over 60s, possibly over 50s. I couldn't find it from a reputable source so presume it's a load of crap but I can't see DH who is over 60 agreeing to stay in indefinitely

There is no way on gods green earth that my dad or fil at 75 will stay home...they are going out more than me!!!

Or dh if they make it over 50

My 84 year old uncle is staying in, but I think he's quite enjoying me arranging to get his shopping delivered, a delivery from the butchers, someone doing top up shops for him! The novelty probably will wear off if this carries on indefinitely though!

I cannot do this home working/homeschooling thing for much longer, let alone until the end of the year. I just can’t. It’s too much. It’s not a sustainable arrangement.

Amen to that.

Do people do this on purpose just to show off that they “know the lingo”?? 😒

I don't think anyone is showing off. It's quite a critical bit of information regarding the spread of any virus and it's been heavily discussed in the media and by governments, the WHO etc globally in relation to the current situation. I think on threads which are by/for people who are presumably following the news it's not unreasonable to assume that most would know what is meant by an R0. It's the rate of transmission i.e. how many people on average each infected person will transmit the virus to. An R0 of 1 just means that on average each infected person will pass the virus to one more person.

I don't think he was negative, he was realistic.
He said that restrictions of some sort will stay in place for a long time.
He didn't say until the end of the year, which is December, he said until a vaccine/medicine was available, which realistically could be a year away.

He also explained clearly about the 'R' number and why it would take time to see that effectively.
I think most people saw this coming - there was no other way - but perhaps the penny is starting to drop for some of us. And it is awful, and hard. But it's not his fault, he's just trying to tell people how it is, whilst reassuring them at the same time. I think he's excellent.

@ecuse thanks for this link. Really good read. Most significant thing I saw was that relaxing from current lockdown needs

I think most people saw this coming

Saw what coming? Because he didn't tell us what that was.

If I was struggling with the home schooling I would just do what I could and let the rest go. The key worker children are not doing any proper school work there. People can't expect miracles. I know it's hard if your trying to juggle it all but expecting school levels of teaching from people wfh is not on.
I'm lucky I don't have to do it but I know I would have struggled massively and if dh had to work from home too we would be heading for the divorce courts. Children are hard work and you can't keep them quiet and well behaved to order.
It's an untenable situation.
I'm sorry for people going through this.

He didn't say until the end of the year, which is December, he said until a vaccine/medicine was available, which realistically could be a year away.

And may never be available. I don't see how this can go on indefinitely, there will be too many other consequences.

I give it until the 3 week lockdown is up (when is that again?) and then I'm done. Going out, visiting family, sitting in the sunshine, if any. I can't live like this

But this is what I mean. It's already been interpreted different ways by different people on this thread. Because at no point did he say "all current social distancing measures to remain in place until a vaccine". He said SOME.