Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Glass A comparison of the 4 UK nations, plus English regions,
was one of the requests I EMed to the FT

Another request - sent in by many I'm sure - was for the hospital graphs,
which they have since produced

The FT may regard UK regional comparisons as too parochial though, as they are so keen on being global and raking in more ad money

So we will probably have to bake our own
(with my visual disability, I no longer do such baking)

“ If one looks at countries in the world with the maximum new daily deaths,

the USA and UK remain #1 and #2, with the curve of new deaths slowly starting to decrease

#1 980 USA
#2 823 UK
#3 534 Italy
#4 430 Spain

The next countries are hundreds lower atm”

@BigChocFrenzy

Both the USA and Spain will rise (USA will probably be more like 2,500 based on figures as they are at present) and France is reporting 531 deaths. Germany, although better than its European counterparts will probably be c.300 - they tend to complete their reporting just before it resets, so their figures are hidden somewhat. Based on trajectories and weekend reporting slumps, it wouldn’t surprise me if Brazil is over 300 too by the end of the day.

It was interesting this evening when they answer the media to say it wasn't productive to compare deaths country by country as population would change death per population etc.
Then the sage guy I think it was started saying how population wise we are closest to Germany and Matt Hancock interrupted and started talking some bollocks. Clearly because that's true - and their death rate is far lower than ours.

Three weeks ago Singapore had a total of 926 COVID-19 cases. Despite eschewing the more draconian social distancing measures adopted by other countries, Singapore was hailed as having one of the most effective COVID-19 public health response systems in the world.

Since then, they have reported a rapid increase in cases - raising their total nearly 10-fold, to 9,125 in just 3 weeks. Over a quarter of the increase has come in the last 48 hours.

Singapore closed schools in early April, and a week ago ordered Mandatory Mask Wearing. Today, they are announcing even more stringent measures, including the closure of non-essential businesses.

We should consider some possibility that London became such a plague pit that some measure of herd immunity was achieved, as the peak daily death rate per capita was higher in London than anywhere else.

London never reached the heights, or depths, of the hardest hit places, NYC and Lombardy, so I don’t believe herd immunity is a reason. I’m not convinced even NYC or Lombardy have anything like the 60-80% coverage that would bring herd immunity, though if I’m wrong, and they do, that would be great

It’s probably more that enough Londoners took preventative action early of their own volition,
freaked out at being told they were two weeks ahead of the curve!

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"population wise we are closest to Germany "

UK is far smaller than Germany, v close to France wrt pop size and reasonably similar to Italy

Germany 83 million
Uk 67 million
France 65 million
Italy 60 million
Spain 47 million

"It’s probably more that enough Londoners took preventative action early of their own volition,"

Good point. I went to the cinema on 11 March and the place was virtually deserted. 7 of us in the biggest screen. I had tickets for a show on 16 March which was cancelled by the venue. Things were definitely getting very quiet already in pockets of London.

If anyone has comparison curves for Scotland, England, Wales & N Ireland, I'd love to see them.

Try here: www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

Great thread

Population wise the UK is similar to France but in terms of population density we are far more crowded. France is a good 2.5 times bigger than the UK.

The highest report I've seen of infected people even in a hotspot was 15%
Most places so far are much lower, below 6%

Imperial estimates the UK infected at slightly over 4%, so about 2.7 million people

If we add estimated care home deaths, we'd get about 23,000 deaths,
so estimated death rate currently about 0.85%

which is within the sub-1% that Imperial, Whitty, Valance said they expected, very early in the epidemic

Brilliant, thanks Primal Lass

Ah that's probably why he interrupted quickly then . Because that population stat was so wrong. I always thought we were closer to Italy and France and were very much similar to Italy stats wise.
Good point about size of France compared to uk and density. That's probably why Scotland and wales have lower death rates?

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Thank you @PrimalLass

Great thread, thanks 
Good points about population density.
In Wales, we have a hotspot of cases in the SE (Gwent area), so a similar pattern to England. However, our infection and mortality rates overall are lower than in England, probably because full lockdown happened at a more ideal time than it did for the likes of London. Can't find a link to Wales stats though @BigChocFrenzy

@Derbygerbil in ww1 battle of the Somme there were 57500 British deaths in one day.

@BigChocFrenzy

I think your analysis misses one key factor, namely those who are currently infected and are alive, but will die of the virus in the coming days or weeks (or who have died but aren’t on the death stats yet). Looking at places ahead of us such as Italy and South Korea, I think that may account for a further 25-50%, increasing the mortality to around, or somewhat above, 1%.

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves

Sorry to be pedantic, but there were 57,000 casualties, including just over 19,000 deaths... but yes, WWI was more deadly for the UK than WWII, for its soldiers at least. Also, excess deaths from the Spanish Flu would almost certainly have been higher than those currently being experienced.

Yes.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2596813/

Weekly deaths peaked at 15,000 in the second wave of deaths. We are probably peaking at 10k but with a larger population.

Thank you for the new thread

The Travelling Tabby Scottish stats page is great. He presents it all so clearly and adds new graphs all the time.

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