Worried About Coronavirus- thread 38

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

Millions of pieces of vital protective equipment are being shipped from British warehouses to Germany, Spain and Italy despite severe shortages in this country, The Telegraph can disclose.

Lorries are being packed with masks, respirators and other PPE kit before heading back to supply hospitals in the EU, it has emerged.

On Monday night, UK firms said they had “no choice” but to keep selling the lifesaving gear abroad because their offers of help had been repeatedly ignored by the Government.

It comes as the Government faces growing criticism over the PPE crisis with hospitals close to running out of critical equipment, and doctors forced to choose between exposing themselves to the virus or letting a patient die on their watch”
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www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/20/exclusivemillions-pieces-ppe-shipped-britain-europe-despite/

EducatingArti interesting.

Even if it’s isolation then fine.

As a Scientist:
Scientists are generally a bunch that don't do 100% certainty but politicians and the press push them towards more certainty than the figures show. The only time we will be very confident of all the figures will be sometime after the Pandemic is over and all of the numbers are known.
DNA and Viruses don't think, plan or make decisions!
The mutations which confer advantage, especially with regards to reproduction tend to spread more and "win out". North Europeans tend to have pale skin, so produce more Vitamin D from less sunlight, so avoid vitamin D deficiency so breed more. This advantage is less advantageous (and can lead to more skin cancer) as you move south, and there has been more interbreeding with people from Africa.
If a virus kills its host too fast, then it tends to die out (MERs and SARs). If it makes you very ill quickly you go to bed, don't interact and die. The slower it replicates, the more likely it is to have a period of being Asymptotomatic and so you to pass it on. However if it's too slow at replicating then the immune system has plenty of time to respond.

WHO are saying, according to the Guardian, that antibodies are only present in 2-3% of people globally so there’s not much hope on the ‘herd immunity’ front and that Singapore have had a big rise In infected cases since easing restrictions. I know I should probably not be surprised but I’ve just had a lot of hope knocked out of me. We’re reliant solely on a vaccine. I know it’s not news to most but I was hopeful.

I work in UK tourism and I'm under no illusion at all that it's bad and going to get much worse. Hospitality is going to be one of the last industries to get back to some semblance of normality sadly. Our Easter has been wiped out and if the summer is too, then I'm not sure how long the company I work for can hang on. It's actually a really viable and profitable business in normal times so it will awful to see it go under and 25 employees, including me, lose their jobs. The only thing that is slightly positive is if we can get through this year, UK tourism is likely to be in great demand next year as long as people still have the money to go on holiday.

@MollyButton Very interesting post. Makes good sense.

MollyButton, that is very rational of you. There is something in intelligent design belief though. Animals permanently camouflaged to their habitat, dogs beginning to speak human. Earth and everything on it is just a bit of dust at the end of the day. But what do you think about the Spanish flu epidemic severely hitting the age group it did

I'm sure you wouldn't just wander into A and E with covid symptoms. If you were I'll enough to need A and E you wouldn't be "wandering" anywhere.
I only know what my friend told me, which is that you could go straight to A and E without going through 111 and that there is a separate "red zone" for suspected covid cases.
I posted it because some people were saying that 111 were telling them to stay at home when they were in a desperate state. In this instance, they could think of getting someone to take them directly to A and E. They would be seen somewhere in A and E

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/catastrophic-coronavirus-could-destroy-local-18120651.amp?__twitter_impression=true
‘Catastrophic’ - why coronavirus could destroy local services unless ministers bail out town halls

Over the last few years local councils have struggled to make ends meet.

At the start of this crisis the government told them they would be given anything they needed to get through the crisis.

But the local council bailout they have been given is, at best, a third of what they need just to cover costs.

Without business rates they were expecting and income from some commercial ventures they face a crisis which makes austerity look like a walk in the park.

On top of that Greater Manchester councils have part ownership in Manchester Airport (which they have an income from) but the airport is now in financial difficulties itself.

This article is just a snapshot if what will be happening all over the country.

What does everyone think of Carl Henegan opinion from Oxford uni in that we didn't need to lock down and we should begin to open Friday.

I find him scary but that could be just me.

Professor Carl Heneghan claims data shows infection rates halved after the Government launched a public information campaign on March 16 urging people to wash their hands and keep two metres (6'6') away from other

I think you cant blame people going difectly to a&e now. Different the idiots going at the start.
But now it's clear people are dying at home because it becomes critical quickly and 111 are just following a script not drs!

Hospitals need to have a plan for this and tbh it could save paramedics getting infected too.
Maybe they could have people wave something to show they need help for covid.

Anyway im not convinced about the 'dr' on that thread. Not that i dont believe some hospitals are empty but.

What is nhs bed capacity.
If we add on all those who died or even half would we still have capacity anywhere??
Plus i dont believe it about getting the young back out to work as they are not at risk. Because

• Many people are working till 68
• young people have died
• clearly the dr doesn't understand that if you go back too soon you will see another peak and it may just go higher.

It may just show more gov mismanageMent. As people dying at home unable to get in
Areas overrun vs areas with space capacity.
I certainly wouldnt be rushing to restart other nhs stuff as vulnerable people will then get infevted at hospital

@Eyewhisker @ToffeeYoghurt that thread is really worrying- as I’ve said previously on the thread this is what it’s like in Bristol - very quiet with a few closed wards in both hospitals A&E’s quiet in a way they’ve never been. staff are very worried about the knock on effects of not treating various conditions promptly- and those effects will be really hard to measure going forward. the massive backlog of tests/treatments/ operations will virtually be imposible to ever get on top of. But how on Earth do you balance being ready for a potential large influx of patients, keeping space between covid and non covid and carrying on with enough other care and treatments? basically it’s not possible.

Also mostly people over 70 by far, a few children have been in the children’s hospital but only a couple have gone through HDU and they had other illnesses.

I said all along I hope we are over preparing and this won’t all be needed. I still hope it won’t but what I don’t understand is why our death rate is so high if the hospitals are coping? It’s comparable to Italy and they were completely overwhelmed.

@ciwirocks I don’t think we really have any idea what our death rate really is as we do so little case testing. If at least 10 x more people have it than our figures show our rate is much lower. Some suggestions think infections are way higher than this- say 100 x so then are death rate would be really low... however we also know true death count is under estimated due to the care home etc situation so...

I don’t think we can say we have over prepared yet.

Issues with 111 getting people the help they need
Still high death rate compared with other countries
Only an artificial peak and a long way to go (depending on infection rate which we have no idea about)

I agree we are really only at the first hurdle in dealing with this virus. It makes sense that certain departments within NHS hospitals are quiet as routine appointments/treatments have been postponed to protect patients and staff and to slow the transmission. Hospital environments are by their set up an area where transmission rates are high. How many inpatients and medical staff contracted the virus before stricter measures were put in place? Many hospitals have implemented plans to redeploy staff to where they will be needed. There is continual NHS recruitment advertising asking for people to rejoin. Some trusts have reached out to veterinary staff as they desperately need help.

The figures were very low (comparatively) yesterday but I'm expecting the usual Tuesday spike today. The government have said there needs to be a consistent lowering/levelling of numbers before restrictions are lifted. The problem is that a lot of people only look at the surface and think decisions should be made on one aspect, like numbers being lower yesterday, and they won't look at the bigger picture. Just looking at the threads on here show that many people haven't a clue about anything other than their freedom has been restricted and they naturally want to get back to normal as soon as possible. They look at things in very simplistic terms and expect decisions to be made on those same terms. There's a lack of critical thinking and analysis. Well, except for all the cognitive gymnastics involved in how they can get round the rules to carry on doing what they want to do.

Bercows yes there’s a lot of that.

ONS stats for w/e 10/4. Shocking but not unexpected sadly

the dutch government is to announce how they deal with the lockdown from next week onwards...

mrshoho
those numbers are really sad. so many people. journalists need to ask about this 'hidden' victim number.

@changedmind Spanish Flu, well to a large extent is hit the young adults as they had been just out at war or working in the war effort. They were often malnourished relatively, had been/were living in unsanitary conditions and in close proximity. It is pretty clear that a lot of it was spread by returning troops.
There is also a possibility that like Swine Flu it was similar to an earlier milder Flu which the elderly had already encountered so had some resistance to.
The most general interesting thing is the work the Sepsis society are doing on Cytokines storm.

Oh and the personal interesting thing for me is why none of my ancestors (including Great Aunts and Uncles) seem to have been affected, even the lot who were riddled with TB?

Shocking but not unexpected sadly.

Hmmm.... not really. I was expecting a much grimmer picture. Community / care homes deaths "only" represent 15% of the total number.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves has summarised the results of the ONS report on the other thread:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3881672-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-5?pg=38

What does everyone think of Carl Henegan opinion from Oxford uni

I would like to see his research and figures on this in more detail, but can only find what the media are reporting. Which bothers me, as we all know how the media can misrepresent information, and then they feed off each other.