Worried About Coronavirus- thread 38

[TheStarryNight]

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Even so, this particular Coronavirus is doing rather well, it has a long incubation time, it doesn't get serious for about a week, allowing the host to spread it as they still feel well enough to be out and about, but then for some folk, it worsens considerably and can lead to death. So it's already capable of spreading efficiently, so there's no great need for it to mutate in order to spread better.

no great need to mutate

this makes my head explode ,how does the virus know this ? Well I know it doesn't know as such ,but mind boggled at what the mechanism could be .

Frompcat my grandson’s stepfather was admitted with much more minor symptoms too, having been closely monitored at home for several days. He had a few days in hospital, no intensive care. In a hard hit area outside of London. The family felt they had access to the necessary help and support throughout.

We have a friend who is am ambulance driver. Hes attended alot of calls to worried well/some who they felt could manage at home/and has taken lots into hospital. I dont think its the case youre always left until youre blue!

So do we think the reason they are continuing with the Nightingale hospitals is because if a possible second wave, more terrible than the first?

Of course it is.

And I will point out these hospitals are in central city locations for the most part and tend to be away from the boroughs which have been highlighted as those most at risk of being overwhelmed because of service provision, poor underlying health and slightly older populations.

So take Manchester for example, the places which are going to have a problem coping in the North West are the areas thought most likely to be overwhelmed are places like Halton, Knowsley, Blackburn, Blackpool.

How long does it take an ambulance to get from Runcorn to the Gmex (yes I'm old school and hate Manchester Central)? Even without traffic that's a good 45mins.

How long does a normal hospital run take from Runcorn to Halton General? 10 - 15mins?

Or Hartlepool. Is your nearest nightingale Harrogate or Birmingham? (Answers on a postcard folks - maybe we can see which postcard arrives first).

How long does it take to get from Hull to Harrogate?

I have to wonder about whether centrally planning the nightingales was the correct move. Cheapest yes. Most effective?

Has anyone seen any discussion about how patients from regional areas will get to the nightingales? If an ambulance is tied up for up to 4 times longer than normal what happens? Is there logistics planning for additional ambulances? Or are people expected to drive and drop very ill patients longer distances? Remembering those communities which have been deemed most at risk have less car drivers and with finances hit, possibly less money for petrol by the autumn.

I watch and wait, but if we do get a second waves keep your eyes on this problem cos I'm not convinced it's been fully thought through.

I know peridito but think about when humans skin turned white. It wasn't because only they survived. Our DNA recognised it was dimmer.. and did it on purpose

this makes my head explode ,how does the virus know this?
It’s more successful at spreading if it doesn’t make you ill immediately. If you feel ok you’re more likely to go out and spread it, so that strain of the virus is more successful. Whereas another strain that makes you ill immediately doesn’t get spread because you feel poorly so you stay at home.

Or Hartlepool. Is your nearest nightingale Harrogate or Birmingham? (Answers on a postcard folks - maybe we can see which postcard arrives first).

It would be Harrogate. Birmingham would be a good three hours.

Ezra that's helpful ,thank you .

I think of plants - night time flowering with moths pollinating and plants reaching for the light ,turning to the sun .

What a world .

this makes my head explode ,how does the virus know this ? Well I know it doesn't know as such ,but mind boggled at what the mechanism could be.

Haha, yes, I don't think Coronavirus particles have COBRA meetings! 'Chaps, it's time we stepped things up! Infection rates are falling. We need to mutate, and do it quickly or we are doomed!'

But seriously, the virus doesn't need to 'know' in the way we humans do, as Ezira said, if you don't feel ill immediately then you will be out spreading the virus without realising. If we became very ill very quickly, that would be far less likely to happen. Or in the case of the common cold Coronaviruses, no-one dies from that, people keep socialising, so those viruses are very successful and are in constant circulation.

Take rabies, it's 100% fatal if not treated. But it makes the animals/people it infects become violent and liable to bite, and that's how it passes to the next victim, via saliva. Rabies really is terrifying, it infects the brain, can lie latent in the body for years before causing symptoms.

"Everything we know about coronavirus immunity and antibodies — and plenty we still don’t."
www.statnews.com/2020/04/20/everything-we-know-about-coronavirus-immunity-and-antibodies-and-plenty-we-still-dont/

I would imagine the plan for the nightingales is to transfer stable ICU patients there and leave some capacity in local hospitals to deal with emergencies rather than let the local hospitals fill and then travel for an hour with a gravely ill patient. Is that not what is happening in London?

The testing seems very low in the UK 482063 test carried in Britain so not even half a million tests on a population of 65 million.

It is actually ok now to just go straight to A and E with Covid19 symptoms. You don't need to go through 111 . Obviously you would only go if you felt you couldn't manage at home.

@peridito

I know it's fascinating. I think the mechanism might be that random mutations occur by 'mistake' and strains where the mutation happens to enable better spread are more likely to...well, spread!

Yes @inkpaperstars has it, to my understanding. Mutations are random but those that, by chance, confer an advantage are more likely to replicate.

It is actually ok now to just go straight to A and E with Covid19 symptoms
This is not true. I was at A&E last week with a broken bone. They stopped me at the door and asked if I had CV symptoms; if I said yes I wouldn’t have been allowed inside. Once inside they said have you been referred here by 111? They looked up my record to check. If I hadn’t been referred I would have had to go outside and call 111, and A&E would only provide treatment if 111 said it was necessary. Only the patient was permitted inside - no companions. Everything was marked out for social distancing.

They were very clear about A&E being a safe space for emergency treatment because they were concerned that people who genuinely need help would be afraid to go for fear of being exposed to CV. When I spoke to 111 I said maybe I should just stay at home and see what I feel like tomorrow, maybe it isn’t broken, I don’t want to risk catching CV at hospital - and they said it’s safe because medical staff get tested and CV patients aren’t allowed to be there.

Interesting and worrying RedToothBrush That would be an issue in London too. The worst hit boroughs are tending to be the outer ones. Croydon and Brent for example. Both I should imagine are around an hour's journey to the central nightingale hospital. I saw an article on Croydon's hospital last week. Sounded like things were bad there.

Terrifying thinking of the countless needless deaths we face if the government puts a premature end to lockdown. Possibly indirectly racist too? If BAME communities are disproportionately suffering, lifting lockdown too soon could be interpreted as such. Not to mention contempt for the millions of vulnerable people living with underlying health conditions. So many have hypertension, diabetes, or are obese. Three conditions with the highest mortality rates yet not protected in the shielding list.

Emerald whereabouts are you thinking? No one among my family and friends, spread out across London, could get near A+E with suspected Covid.

It’s either the isolation booth outside the hospital and then maybe go on a covid ward, or try to get into nightingale via phone referral.

No one walk into a London casualty and say “I think I’ve got covid” unless this has changed over the weekend?

Speaking as a BAME person, I’m still wanting to reduce the draconian measures even more. If I’m more likely to die, I want my freedom to see my loved ones even more!

Sorry Emerald you didn’t say it, Educating said that.

Can anyone explain this to me? Its from an exit strategy by tony blair. Apparently the risk is one in 100,000 for under 40s. Where did they get that figure from? Havent there been a fair few deaths in under 40s?

Sorry it didnt attach

I wonder if the fairest thing when starting to ease lockdown is to initially have it entirely on a voluntary basis? Those who want to take the risks, return to work and travelling around. Whereas those who want the freedom to live, who don't want an unpleasant and untimely death, are allowed to remain protected? No fines for keeping your kids off school, no-one forced to return to work, especially those in higher risk groups or with a household member in one of those groups.

The problem would be if too many decide to risk their lives (and that of their loved ones) it would place an even greater burden on already under pressure healthcare staff, who are themselves suffering disproportionate deaths. Transport workers too. Probably still best keeping lockdown for a longer period.

Apparently the risk is one in 100,000 for under 40s. Where did they get that figure from? Havent there been a fair few deaths in under 40s?

Given there have been “only” 120,000 confirmed cases of CV in the UK, with presumably only a % of that being under 40s, and there have been numerous, though admittedly not massive numbers, of deaths of under 40s, I’m intrigued how on Earth they calculated this....

One (very stupid and misleading) way of calculating this would be to divide the number of deaths of under 40s with the UK population of under 40s, but that implies we’ve already achieved herd immunity!

If they start lifting lockdown by age, they need to exclude those under 40s who have any of the risk factors - underlying condition or obesity. The worst off will be the poor sods with an undiagnosed condition. Aside from that it's a fairly reasonable starting point. It's good they plan to only ease it for those who don't live with older at risk household members. I hate to find myself in agreement with Blair but he was saying the way out of lockdown is mass testing and immunity certificates. He's right, that's the best way (and access to treatments) I don't think he's advocating for an early exit.

Interesting breakdown of transmission (attached).

From: mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1250855512226164736