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Worried About Coronavirus- thread 38

991 replies

TheStarryNight · 18/04/2020 13:57

New thread

OP posts:
Thread gallery
51
Focusanddetermination · 30/04/2020 20:42

Boris has announced we are past the peak. Can all go back to work then? Confused

woodencoffeetable · 30/04/2020 21:09

mobile.twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1255788853325115399

Christian Drosten
@c_drosten
·
10 Std.
^Superb new study: Risk of infection upon exposure in children may be about 1/3 that of adults (sorry for the simplification). Important counterpart to yesterday´s viral load data (bit.ly/SARS-2-load)^

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/28/science.abb8001

Oakmaiden · 30/04/2020 21:39

@Focusanddetermination is that a serious question?

Because the answer is no, not yet. If we went back to normal immediately then it would just woosh right back up (and past) again.

I suspect we will see a gradual relaxation over the next week or three though.

Keepdistance · 30/04/2020 22:56

I dont think thats quite whst the other study in papers today said.
It seemed to say pretty similar different ages
All these studies seem to be on quite low numbers.

That one is showing thst school closures make quire a difference

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2020 23:38

Nick Stripe @NickStripe_ONS
THREAD - mortality by local area and geographical classification

Tomorrow we will release further analysis of all deaths and COVID-related deaths at a more granular geographical level. Full data tables will accompany this release as usual.
1/7

Counts and age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) with confidence limits will be provided by
-region
-local authority (LA)
-deprivation deciles (England) and quintiles (Wales)
-urban/rural classification areas
-major towns and cities
2/7

Our analyses will include all deaths that occurred between the 1 March and 17 April where they had been registered with local registration services by 18 April
3/7

The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is an overall measure of deprivation based on factors such as income, employment, health, education, crime, environment and access to housing within small areas. We aggregate areas of similar deprivation into deciles or quintiles
4/7

The Urban Rural classification considers housing sparsity and location. Areas with 10,000+ people are defined as urban and split into major & minor conurbations, city and town categories. Rural areas are split into town and fringe, village, hamlets and isolated dwellings
5/7

Major towns and cities focus on core built up areas rather than their surroundings. Boundaries do not follow administrative areas but are instead defined to cover built-up areas. Generally designed for analysis outside London, we will include an overall London category
6/7

We will also be providing counts for Middle Layer Output Areas (MSOAs) across E&W.

MSOAs are a small area statistical geography covering E&W. Each area has a similarly sized population and remains stable over time enabling consistent analysis. MSOAs are nested within LAs
7/7

This will be fascinating...

Focusanddetermination · 01/05/2020 06:08

oak I agree with you. Yesterday BJ said we are over the peak. They're is a risk people will hear only that bit. Not just employers wanting their staff back but an increase in interactions between families, visits, play dates is more likely.

I still find it a crazy idea schools would re open at half term, especially for the bottom end of primary this would be so confusing - and difficult for parents if all the wrap around childcare support isn't back in place at the same time.

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2020 08:15

www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1194046?__twitter_impression=true
British doctors warn some Chinese ventilators could kill if used in hospitals
Exclusive: "We believe that if used, significant patient harm, including death, is likely," British doctors said in a letter

The doctors said the machines had a problematic oxygen supply, could not be cleaned properly, had an unfamiliar design and a confusing instruction manual, and were built for use in ambulances, not hospitals.

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2020 08:24

www.ifs.org.uk/inequality/chapter/are-some-ethnic-groups-more-vulnerable-to-covid-19-than-others/
Are some ethnic groups more vulnerable to COVID-19 than others?

Key findings
The impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are not uniform across ethnic groups, and aggregating all minorities together misses important differences. Understanding why these differences exist is crucial for thinking about the role policy can play in addressing inequalities.

Per-capita COVID-19 hospital deaths are highest among the black Caribbean population and three times those of the white British majority. Some minority groups – including Pakistanis and black Africans – have seen similar numbers of hospital deaths per capita to the population average, while Bangladeshi fatalities are lower.

Once you take account of age and geography, most minority groups ‘should’ have fewer deaths per capita than the white British majority. While many minority groups live disproportionately in areas such as London and Birmingham, which have more COVID-19 deaths, most minorities are also younger on average than the population as a whole, which should make them less vulnerable.

After accounting for the age, gender and geographic profiles of ethnic groups, inequalities in mortality relative to the white British majority are therefore more stark for most minority groups than they first appear. Black Africans and Pakistanis would be expected to have fewer fatalities per capita than white British but at present they are comparable.

After stripping out the role of age and geography, Bangladeshi hospital fatalities are twice those of the white British group, Pakistani deaths are 2.9 times as high and black African deaths 3.7 times as high. The Indian, black Caribbean and ‘other white’ ethnic groups also have excess fatalities, with the white Irish group the only one to have fewer fatalities than white British.

These disparities cannot currently be accounted for by non-hospital deaths. Official deaths in care homes – for which the ethnicity of victims is not currently available but where over 95% of residents are white – could only explain a small part of estimated excess fatalities recorded in hospitals for minority groups. The ethnic composition of additional deaths directly or indirectly caused by the virus but not officially attributed to it is unclear at this time.

Occupational exposure may partially explain disproportionate deaths for some groups. Key workers are at higher risk of infection through the jobs they do. More than two in ten black African women of working age are employed in health and social care roles. Indian men are 150% more likely to work in health or social care roles than their white British counterparts. While the Indian ethnic group makes up 3% of the working-age population of England and Wales, they account for 14% of doctors.

At-risk underlying health conditions are especially prevalent among older Bangladeshis, Pakistanis and black Caribbeans. Compared with white British individuals over 60 years of age, Bangladeshis are more than 60% more likely to have a long-term health condition that makes them particularly vulnerable to infection, which may explain excess fatalities in this group.

Many ethnic minorities are also more economically vulnerable to the current crisis than are white ethnic groups. The fact that larger shares of many minority groups are of working age means that these populations are more exposed to labour market conditions as a whole, but even amongst working-age populations there are clear inequalities in vulnerability to the current crisis.

Men from minority groups are more likely to be affected by the shutdown. While in the population as a whole women are more likely to work in shut-down sectors, this is only the case for the white ethnic groups. Bangladeshi men are four times as likely as white British men to have jobs in shut-down industries, due in large part to their concentration in the restaurant sector, and Pakistani men are nearly three times as likely, partly due to their concentration in taxi driving. Black African and black Caribbean men are both 50% more likely than white British men to be in shut-down sectors.

Self-employment – where incomes may currently be especially uncertain – is especially prevalent amongst Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. Pakistani men are over 70% more likely to be self-employed than the white British majority.

While in the population as a whole young people are more likely to be affected by the shutdown, the reverse is true among Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. While 24% of young white British and 29% of young Bangladeshis work in shut-down sectors, the figure is 14% for 30- to 44-year-old white British but 40% for 30- to 44-year-old Bangladeshis. This also means that the family circumstances of those affected by shutdown differ by ethnicity, with older workers more likely to be living in couples.

The potential for buffering incomes within the household depends on partners’ employment rates, which are much lower for Pakistani and Bangladeshi women. As a result, 29% of Bangladeshi working-age men both work in a shut-down sector and have a partner who is not in paid work, compared with only 1% of white British men.

Bangladeshis, black Caribbeans and black Africans also have the most limited savings to provide a financial buffer if laid off. Only around 30% live in households with enough to cover one month of income. In contrast, nearly 60% of the rest of the population have enough savings to cover one month’s income.

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2020 08:37

uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN22D4LN?__twitter_impression=true
Ryanair to cut 3,000 jobs as the coronavirus crisis drags on

Ryanair plans to cut 3,000 jobs and talk to Boeing about delaying plane deliveries as it does not expect European air traffic to recover fully from the coronavirus crisis until 2022, the Irish airline said on Friday,

Two weeks ago, Europe's biggest budget airline said it could make bumper profits in 2021 and had no plans to defer jet orders.

But in an unscheduled update, Ryanair pushed back the start of a return to normal scheduling to July from June and said it would only fly 50% of planned capacity in the three months to the end of September, usually its busiest season

woodencoffeetable · 01/05/2020 08:46

irish times on how the dutch are different

the dutch seem to follow a different approach focussing on the healthcare workers in the biggest medical trusts.

healthcare workers are likely to spread the disease to more people than the average person, therefore travel restrictions and strict social distancing outside work are vital to stop hospitals and other healthcare settings becoming infection hubs.

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2020 09:01

The forgotten cruise ship story:

amp.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/01/no-one-comes-the-cruise-ship-crews-cast-adrift-by-coronavirus?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
‘No one comes’: the cruise ship crews cast adrift by coronavirus
From the Galapagos to Dubai crew have been left marooned amid squabbles over who is responsible for their welfare

She is one of more than 100 Celebrity Cruises crew members who have joined a class-action suit filed against the company on 14 April, alleging it failed to take timely action to protect workers, despite having weeks of notice that coronavirus was spreading worldwide.

The ship is not an exception. Across the world, a Guardian investigation has uncovered at least 50 ships facing outbreaks of Covid-19 among the crew.

Upwards of 100,000 other crew members – including hundreds of her colleagues aboard the Apex – remain trapped on their ships.

And

Another cruise ship, the Ruby Princess, which is blamed for spreading the disease around Australia in March, has now surpassed the Diamond Princess in the scale of its deadly outbreak – 21 people died and 900 were infected aboard the ship.

And

Most ships have only one doctor and a few nurses for thousands of passengers and crew, workers say The ships generally rely on hospitals on shore for urgent care. Because of the pandemic, however, the US and other ports are refusing to take all but the most dire cases.

“They are basically getting no healthcare,” says Michael Winkleman, the attorney in Miami who filed the class-action suit. “They are locked in their rooms and told they can call an advice line for help. But when they call, no one comes.”

Cruise lines have little recourse in seeking government help for urgent healthcare. While many of the major cruise companies, including Carnival and Royal Caribbean, are headquartered in the US, the companies are registered in low-tax countries. Carnival is technically a Panamanian company and Royal Caribbean is registered in Liberia, meaning they pay almost no US taxes.

Likewise their ships are typically flagged in countries such as the Bahamas or Bermuda, which allows them to avoid strict safety standards, labour laws and environmental restrictions they might otherwise face in the US.

And

On other ships, the situation is dire. Workers have complained that food seemed to be running out, and that they were forced to pay for internet time.

Many crew have had their pay cut off entirely. Workers on board several ships run by the Geneva-based MSC cruise line, according to letters from MSC seen by the Guardian, are no longer being paid after their contracts ran out or were terminated early by the company because of the global pandemic.

Many are trapped onboard unable to get flights home. And because they are beyond normal jurisdiction no one cares.

I had no idea there was a cruise ship worse than the diamond Princess either.

peridito · 01/05/2020 10:03

Red - shocking re cruise ships ,shocking .

peridito · 01/05/2020 10:08

I just need to have a little scream

If there is one thing this terrible crisis has brought home to us it is importance of the social care sector … and the crucial work done by those who care for them. They put lives at risk as NHS workers do, and often for low pay Hunt this morning on Radio 4

because up until now there was no inkling that the care sector was important or it's low paid workers crucial.

woodencoffeetable · 01/05/2020 11:36

one for hope:

berlin philharmonic orchestra live concert right now. beautiful.
no audience in the room & social distance

Worried About Coronavirus- thread 38
meercat23 · 01/05/2020 11:45

Peridito I just need to have a little scream

If there is one thing this terrible crisis has brought home to us it is importance of the social care sector … and the crucial work done by those who care for them. They put lives at risk as NHS workers do, and often for low pay Hunt this morning on Radio 4

because up until now there was no inkling that the care sector was important or it's low paid workers crucial.

I suppose if the likes of Hunt now do realise it that has to be positive. We will have to make sure they don't try and forget it when this is over!

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2020 11:51

And here we are.

Deaths by fine detail. Ons data

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april#middle-layer-super-output-areas
Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation: deaths occurring between 1 March and 17 April 2020
Provisional counts of the number of deaths and age-standardised mortality rates involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) between 1 March and 17 April 2020 in England and Wales. Figures are provided by age, sex, geographies down to local authority level and deprivation indices.

1.Main points
Between 1 March and 17 April 2020, there were 90,232 deaths occurring in England and Wales that were registered by 18 April; 20,283 of these deaths involved the coronavirus (COVID-19).

When adjusting for size and age structure of the population, there were 36.2 deaths involving COVID-19 per 100,000 people in England and Wales.

London had the highest age-standardised mortality rate with 85.7 deaths per 100,000 persons involving COVID-19; this was statistically significantly higher than any other region and almost double the next highest rate.

The local authorities with the highest age-standardised mortality rates for deaths involving COVID-19 were all London Boroughs; Newham had the highest age-standardised rate with 144.3 deaths per 100,000 population followed by Brent with a rate of 141.5 deaths per 100,000 population and Hackney with a rate of 127.4 deaths per 100,000 population.

The age-standardised mortality rate of deaths involving COVID-19 in the most deprived areas of England was 55.1 deaths per 100,000 population compared with 25.3 deaths per 100,000 population in the least deprived areas

In Wales, the most deprived areas had a mortality rate for deaths involving COVID-19 of 44.6 deaths per 100,000 population, almost twice as high as the least deprived area of 23.2 deaths per 100,000 population.

Statistician's comment
“By mid-April, the region with the highest proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 was London, with the virus being involved in more than 4 in 10 deaths since the start of March. In contrast, the region with the lowest proportion of COVID-19 deaths was the South West, which saw just over 1 in 10 deaths involving coronavirus. The 11 local authorities with the highest mortality rates were all London boroughs, with Newham, Brent and Hackney suffering the highest rates of COVID-19 related deaths.

“People living in more deprived areas have experienced COVID-19 mortality rates more than double those living in less deprived areas. General mortality rates are normally higher in more deprived areas, but so far COVID-19 appears to be taking them higher still.”

Nick Stripe, Head of Health Analysis, Office for National Statistics.

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2020 12:39

Ben Page Ipsos Mori @benatipsosmori
NEW high levels of concern about going out, esp to bars/restaurants or using public transport after #lockdown ends in our survey for @BBCMarkEaston #COVID19 - recovery looking more U or L shaped..

Worried About Coronavirus- thread 38
Coquohvan · 01/05/2020 13:30

Hunt had from 2012-2018 as Secretary for Health and Social Care to do something, he didn’t.

6 yrs he had he didn’t do much, his statement is political point scoring.

Hypocritical much.....

woodencoffeetable · 01/05/2020 13:35

in case you are interested (and fluent in german): www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/unsere_geschichte/Wie-Wissenschaftler-Seuchen-bekaempften,sendung1035290.html

interesting documentary about all sorts of epidemics/pandemics, incl covid-19.
interesting that social distancing and quarantine measures are as old a humanity.

HeIenaDove · 01/05/2020 14:16

Don’t buy the lockdown lie – this is a government of business as usual
In England there is no new legislation to protect workers' safety, and remarkably little to enforce workplace lockdown, despite what the media tells you.

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Everyone agrees we’re in lockdown. Coronavirus has “shut down the whole economy”, the BBC’s Coronavirus Newscast told us last week.

The BBC’s World at One contrasts the situation in the UK, with that of a “different approach” in Sweden, where “not all businesses have closed”. The only debate now is between the hawks and doves on when we allow “a partial reopening of businesses”, the national broadcaster’s daily news email told me on Monday.

Meanwhile Britain seems headed towards the worst death rate in Europe.

Undoubtedly part of the reason for this is that we moved too late to enforce a “lockdown”.

But the other reason is that we don’t actually have a lockdown. The government has allowed people to continue to go to work – and allowed bosses to make people continue to go to work – far more than we’re being led to believe, and far more than most of the media seem to have noticed.

And as openDemocracy has just exposed, across large sections of the economy, many workers in ‘non essential’ jobs are being forced to show up to potentially dangerous workplaces. And some have already got sick. And some have already died.

“Stay home”, Boris Johnson told us when he announced the lockdown a month ago. Only travel to work “where this is absolutely necessary and cannot be done from home.”

Whose rules?
But who defines what’s “absolutely necessary”? Unless you work for a non-essential shop or leisure facility (that was closed by order on 23rd March) the answer is always, “your boss”.

Offices, factories, warehouses and (in England) construction sites may all remain open. None have been designated as ‘non-essential’. It’s also been left entirely up to the bosses to decide whether it’s “possible” to do a job from home, and whether to take the government cash to furlough some or all of their workers. Or whether it’s “absolutely necessary” for some or all of its workers to come in. Call centre workers and numerous other groups of workers, meanwhile, have been labelled “key workers” at the stroke of a ministerial pen, irrespective of what they are actually doing – leading to reports of deaths from suspected COVID-19.

It’s not even really accurate to talk about ‘loopholes’ that employers are exploiting. More like a legal void, that the government hopes the media class won’t notice. The baristas and bookshops aren’t there, and who really knows anyone who works in a call centre, factory, or warehouse? When Patrick Vallance’s slides at last Thursday’s Covid press conference revealed that 49% of those still working, are working from home, no-one piped up on Zoom to ask where the other 51% were, or why the government’s official survey hadn’t asked that question.

Earlier this week, an academic at Strathclyde university gave me advance sight of a major survey he’s done of call centre workers. As my colleague and I reported yesterday, it makes for harrowing reading. Many, particularly low paid, workers are still being made to go to work. And it’s not only call centres. There are cleaners, security guards, office staff, construction and warehouse workers.

As the survey showed, many are deeply worried about catching coronavirus either at work or on their journey in. Some are particularly concerned as they, or members of their households, are classed as “vulnerable”, and advised to be particularly careful to maintain social distancing, or even one of the 1.5 million classed as “extremely vulnerable” and instructed to “self-shield” entirely for 12 weeks.

But the government has given them little or no additional protection from unscrupulous employers. I called the Cabinet Office, Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), Department of Work and Pensions, and Ministry of Justice, to try to get to the bottom of this matter. What legal sanctions were there against employers who threatened to withhold all pay, or even sack, non-essential employees, if they asked not to come in because of concerns about catching the virus?

Such bosses "won’t exactly be breaking a law”, a BEIS spokesperson told me. “There’s nothing [employees] can prosecute people with, but you can point to guidance.”

Even if someone in the employee's household was defined as “vulnerable”, or “extremely vulnerable”?

There were no new legal protections, the spokesperson confirmed. But workers could go to their union, to Citizens Advice, or to the conciliation service, ACAS, he suggested. “There’s a lot of that going on”.

What if a worker themselves were classified as “vulnerable” or “extremely vulnerable”?

Even here, the BEIS spokesperson offered little reassurance. “There are so many extenuating circumstances in these things.”

Invisible rights
In fact, although neither BEIS nor any of the other departments I spoke to were prepared to tell me, even when I prompted them by asking about health and safety law, there is some legal protection for employees in these kinds of situations. Under existing health and safety legislation, employees who believe their health or indeed that of their family would be put in imminent and serious danger may leave, or refuse to attend the workplace. And employment lawyers like Stuart Brittenden, writing on the website of the Institute of Employment Rights, suggests that if as a result of leaving, or refusing to attend under these current circumstances, someone was dismissed, or had their pay withheld, they’d have a decent chance of success at an Employment Tribunal.

The trouble is, even if employees know about these rights, how many will dare exercise them, when any legal remedy might take months or even years of fighting for, and they could face being sacked and thrown into the inadequate safety net in the meantime? Not to mention those who have looser employment relationships that mean they don’t have these rights at all? Unions are trying to help, of course – but are hobbled by some of the most restrictive anti-union laws in the developed world.

No new laws
And it gets worse. In England, unlike in Scotland and Wales, the government has not even introduced any new legal sanctions if offices, call centres, factories, construction sites, warehouses, and so on, don’t enable social distancing in the workplace. English bosses are expected to “make every effort to comply” with social distancing, but not legally mandated to do anything. Indeed, as “lockdown” progresses, the non-binding guidance has been watered down, so that for example bosses who can’t enable construction workers to stay 2 metres apart are advised to set them to work “side to side” or “back to back” instead. If even that’s not possible, they’re asked to limit close face to face working to 15 minutes.

The Opposition appear to have dropped the demand by then shadow employment minister Rachael Maskell on 31st March for “strict and enforceable closure” of non-essential workplaces, but continue to call for the current guidance around safety at work to be “strictly implemented and enforced” with the help of trade unions.

Meanwhile, the right wing hawks, in particular, seem to have discovered a new concern about the abuse, exclusion and poor conditions that are the reality of many people’s home lives – and are invoking it as a reason to end the lockdown. But the vulnerability and exploitation that is the reality of many people’s working lives is given scant attention.

The media debate when people will feel ready to “decide” to “return” to work, and the Ministry of Justice tells me that people can simply “follow the guidance on the website” to “negotiate with their employers” if there’s any disagreement on that matter. There seems to be a fond fantasy of a world where there’s no such thing as unequal power relations. A world where we haven’t endured 40 years of attacks on workers' rights, trade unions and social security.

The key worker con
And if the financial pressures on many workers weren’t bad enough, the government has also given employers some handy moral pressure to add into the mix.

The terms “key workers”, “critical workers” and “essential workers” are being thrown around like confetti, workers report – though there’s absolutely no legal basis to use these terms to compel people to come to work. At least no legal basis that the four relevant government department press offices could tell me about when I asked them.

As openDemocracy reported yesterday, this has caused particular anger amongst many such workers. “I do low value personal injury and property damage claims - how could I possibly be an essential worker?! Seems like they are exploiting the system, I am disgusted” was typical of the responses we have seen.

BEIS confirmed that the reference to “key workers” that employers were relying on, was the non-binding, rushed guidance from the Cabinet Office about whose children could keep going to school, and which appears to include the entire financial and telecoms sectors, and many others. Announcing this list as the basis for “key worker” testing, government last week briefed that there were 10 million workers who’d been designated as “essential”, “key workers”, which in reality is between half and a third of all workers.

A BEIS spokesperson told openDemocracy, “I imagine that there will be a number of legal cases when this is all over about whether a job was essential or if it was right for a company to remain open.”

But “when this is all over” will be too late for the workers currently terrified of bosses “playing Russian Roulette with our lives”, the workers who are already sick, and the workers who’ve already died.

“Easing” the lockdown?
And there’s more to come. Whilst firms have applied to furlough 3.2 million people according to figures released last week, some employers seem to be interpreting the 3 week minimum as a maximum, and are now demanding workers return.

One accountant told us:

“They have literally given us the minimum three weeks per the government scheme. There was no discussion or consultation. I did express my worries but that was ignored.” She’s since had a text telling her “My furlough is cancelled. I’m expected back in the office next week….”

“I have asthma and have been hospitalised twice in the last few years with pneumonia…If I get any kind of chest or lung infection, I am always very ill. I also have a tremor condition similar to Parkinsons which is made much worse by stress…My bosses [are] ignoring my concerns and health issues, and ignoring the fact I could easily work from home… There’s no company sick pay during the pandemic…I can't see any way out of it right now…”

Is this what “getting Britain back on her feet” looks like?

Focusanddetermination · 01/05/2020 14:28

Wow,

woodencoffeetable · 01/05/2020 15:24

mobile.twitter.com/jadedcreative/status/1255914215547830275

MurrayTheMonk · 01/05/2020 16:00

That Jeremy Hint had no inkling of the importance of social care is not a surprise. But it is a disgrace.

pocketem · 01/05/2020 16:16

China continues to open up, with the government sanctioning mass gatherings and opening of tourist attractions on the first day of the May holidays, as long as people wear masks

Worried About Coronavirus- thread 38