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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

999 replies

Barracker · 15/04/2020 20:28

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
78
EmMac7 · 16/04/2020 19:47

3% infected in NL is bang on what Imperial College is currently modelling. For us it’s 4.1%.

EmMac7 · 16/04/2020 19:47

Sorry, link: mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/total-infected

MarshaBradyo · 16/04/2020 19:48

That’s low isn’t it. Blimey

Reallybadidea · 16/04/2020 19:53

The immunity tests will probably be lab based ELISAs which are very sensitive and a completely different kettle of fish to the home testing that has not been up to scratch so far. The UK is carrying out ongoing surveillance antibody screening at Porton Down, it will be interesting to see the results if and when they start to publish results.

Focalpoint · 16/04/2020 19:56

They announced that in the Republic of Ireland - 55% of all deaths (or 255 in total) occurred in care homes - which is really shocking and so sad for the families involved.

In better news - Irish health minister has said that they have 4 ways of measuring the R-0 and this is showing it is between 0.7 and 1.

NewAccountForCorona · 16/04/2020 20:24

Isn't that a self-selecting group though. I mean, the blood donors will be the people who haven't been ill recently, the ones who have taken no medication, who haven't been in contact with Covid patients etc etc.

They are still contact tracing all known cases in Ireland. The testing is a little behind, but if they say the R-O is below 1 that is good news.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/04/2020 20:28

How SAGE & COBR work - by a former SAGE member

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-a-former-member-of-sage-explains-how-the-science-advisory-group-really-works-134077

When an emergency happens in the UK
the Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS), which sits in the Cabinet Office, the central government department responsible for the organisation of government,
calls and organises COBR.
....
The CCS prepares a briefing for COBR, known as a CRIP, the Common Recognised Information Picture.
This is the basis upon which all discussions and decision are made.
It ensures that everybody involved is working off the same information.

SAGE is established at the request of COBR
and it is normally chaired by the government’s chief scientific adviser - at present, this is Patrick Vallance.
.....
The advice from SAGE contributes to the briefing and the chair of SAGE attends COBR.

When SAGE is called, it is the job of the Government Office for Science to bring together the necessary range of expertise to formulate advice to COBR.

When time is short, this expertise normally comes from scientists in government departments, especially their own chief scientists.
But when time permits, SAGE pulls in expertise from around the country
including, in the case of something like COVID-19, epidemiologists, clinicians, virologists, behavioural scientists, systems scientists and engineers.

The job of SAGE is to respond to questions from COBR
....
For COVID-19, the complexity of the response is such that SAGE has to rely on other established groups to help it with formulating its advice.

For example, it uses the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group,
Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling in the Department for Health and Social Care,
and the independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours.

These groups, which have deep specialists in various important aspects of disease control as their members,
many of whom come from universities, have been thinking about pandemics for many years.
Some of them run computer models of how the disease might spread.

SAGE has the job of integrating the information from these disparate sources and of augmenting advice where necessary if it recognises any gaps.
This is a pyramidal system that takes an immense amount of technical information
and boils it down to the essentials needed to inform both the strategic and tactical thinking going on at COBR.

It is at COBR that the scientific advice is pitted against other forms of advice from the economic, security, political, administrative and diplomatic spheres.

NeurotrashWarrior · 16/04/2020 20:52

am I the only one who always thought it was COBRA 🐍

NeurotrashWarrior · 16/04/2020 20:53

Thank you choc, that's really interesting.

NeurotrashWarrior · 16/04/2020 20:54

I wonder if any of the experts being interviewed on the bbc at the mo eg radio 4 etc are being called on for advice then? I wonder if there's little nuggets being fed to us to help us prepare?

BigChocFrenzy · 16/04/2020 20:59

it's pronounced "Cobra" and newspapers often write it as that

COBR is Cabinet Office Briefing Room
It has sometimes in the past been called COBRA (Cabinet Office Briefing Room A) for some obscure reason

  • probably just for a sexier acronym ! Smile
ChicChicChicChiclana · 16/04/2020 21:16

here you all are.

MarshaBradyo · 16/04/2020 21:22

How do people feel about the 3% information?

It’s really stuck with me. We are so far off the Oxford study if it’s correct. Feels like a big impact on what’s next.

StatisticallyChallenged · 16/04/2020 21:41

Back of a fag packet but

current official death toll is 13.7k. The ONS stats show this is roughly 2/3 of actual - so actual would be about 20.5k

4.1% (PP mentioned this as being the modelled value for the UK) infections would be about 2.7million infected - giving a rough death rate of about 0.75%. This is just calculated in simple terms, not allowing for lag etc.

Iceland has reported 0.4% I believe - with much more extensive testing - if the UK was more in that region it would be more like 5.1m infected, or around 7.7%, which is over the Imperial estimate range.

The credible interval on the estimates for Sweden is very large , 4.1-17.5%

ChipotleBlessing · 16/04/2020 21:44

I think most people expected the Oxford study was well out. 3% is so low though. The one good thing is it does mean the Dutch mortality rate is only 0.65%.

MarshaBradyo · 16/04/2020 21:47

I did think it was out too. But hoped for more asymptomatic cases showing up. We’ve got a long way to go.

StatisticallyChallenged · 16/04/2020 21:56

Did anyone see reports which suggest younger people (sub 40) weren't showing positive on antibody tests? I saw it reported in a couple of places.

wintertravel1980 · 16/04/2020 22:06

How do people feel about the 3% information?

I think 3% may be understating the actual situation since:

  • The blood donor population, as pointed out by NewAccountForCorona, is a self-selecting group. The percentage of COVID-19 infections there will be lower by design.
  • If I understand correctly, the Dutch blood testing started on March 19. Many more people are infected now than they were a month ago.
  • One of my colleagues did a lab antibody test (which came back negative) and the doctor told him it takes about 3 weeks for mildly impacted and younger patients to produce antibodies.

I believe Oxford study overstates the % of infections in the general population but I also feel the Imperial numbers are way too conservative. I've seen other research that puts UK between 5 and 10% and London between 10 and 20%. Unfortunately, it is behind a paywall and I cannot post a link to it.

LWJ70 · 16/04/2020 22:10

Hospitals will (or should) have been requested to test blood serum levels of vitamin D3 from covid 19 patients. People with darker skin are more prone to vitamin D3 deficiency. Especially in colder, darker climates and in winter. Vitamin D3 has been shown to limit cytokine storms and protect the pulmonary system - it is a vital link in the immune response.

Today Public Health England delayed a response to the disproportionate BAME deaths. Probably because they waiting for the analysis results.

LeeMiller · 16/04/2020 22:13

But I can tell you that Italy took everyone into hospital with symptoms, which is why they got so overwhelmed..

Hospitalising everyone with symptoms is what happened in Lombardia. Italian healthcare is regional. There's been lots of discussion this week about what went wrong in Lombardia and comparisons with the approaches/outcomes of neighbouring regions: a report by a university in Rome defined it as the hospital approach to managing the situation versus the 'territorial' approach (Veneto) and the hospital-territorial blend (Emilia-Romagna among others). Lots of interesting graphs/charts in the full report linked here: www.quotidianosanita.it/studi-e-analisi/articolo.php?articolo_id=83813 (in Italian).

Also, a link to the latest official (English) report on the demographics for Italian deaths: www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_9_april_2020.pdf

Thank you for this thread (special mention for Barracker and BigChoc), it's so informative and strangely reassuring.

Al1Langdownthecleghole · 16/04/2020 22:15

I thought it took around 4 weeks to build up anti-bodies?? Which unfortunately won't help front line workers who have been symptomatic, but not tested, to return to work.

Mapless · 16/04/2020 22:17

Place marking. Thanks again.

Derbygerbil · 16/04/2020 22:18

@StatisticallyChallenged

4.1% (PP mentioned this as being the modelled value for the UK) infections would be about 2.7million infected - giving a rough death rate of about 0.75%. This is just calculated in simple terms, not allowing for lag etc.

I was doing the same kind of calculations... Allowing for the time lag is an important factor. There unfortunately will be large numbers who are infected and currently alive and part of the 4.1%, but will end up dying (along with some who have died but haven’t made it to the reported stats yet.)

Take Italy.... 2 weeks ago the number of dead was 13,900 (a rough approximation of where the UK is now). Now they’re 22,170. A significant majority of those who died in the past two weeks would have been infected 2 weeks ago... Applying that proportion to your figure gives a death rate of 1.2%. Given its takes 3-4 weeks between infection and death, this % would likely rise further still. Very sobering.

Derbygerbil · 16/04/2020 22:24

The time lag in deaths has led to some big underestimation of CV’s severity. Take Germany. Not so long ago it’s death rate was a tiny (of course any rate is too high) 0.1% of reported infections. Now it’s 2.9% and rising. Of course, asymptomatic and untested infections are counted so the actual rate isn’t probably that high, but it can significantly skew death rate analysis if current deaths are simply compared to current infections.