Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Well that was so interesting and informative. I just wish Hunt was a journalist and could ask these types of questions after the daily press conference so that a wider audience would get all this information.

We now know so much more. There were so many watching I think the stream fell over a couple of times.

QuentinWinters

Same with my granddad. He is in his 80s and has end stage pulmonary fibrosis. At the moment he's like, I want to enjoy my life while I still can and what's the point of living when you can't see family and friends?

I suspect that with the danger of pandemic breaking out again if migrants or refigees bring them ,
that the West will out of enlightened self-interest fund a complete vaccination program in all developing countries
(after their own citizens and their neighbours have been treated, of course)

Intellectual property and commercial rights may in this exceptional case not play a significant role,
especially if Western govts partially funded the work

(of course excluding leaders like Trump who tried to buy exclusive rights to the vaccine being developed by a German pharma firm.
He'd probably have demanded worship and slavery in return for the vaccine)

I agree with treating the vulnerable as adults. I can see my 19 year old shielded daughter, though not happy about it, doing the 3 months without too much problem. She could probably do longer. But if it starts looking like she cant start college in Sept, and missing ANOTHER year from education (she has struggled hard to try to catch up) she is going to say fuck it, I will take my chances.

Ecmo is a Hail Mary treatment - effectively cardio-pulmonary bypass. Your blood is oxygenated outside your body then returned to you. It isn’t something that many people survive let alone walk out of hospital afterwards!

I think that's a bit pessimistic Survival after vv ecmo is about 70-75% in the UK on average (prior to covid-19) and is particularly effective for acute asthma - 95%+ survival.

But to answer the question about length of stay - patients who survive ecmo will be in hospital a long time. They'll be ventilated for probably a few days beforehand and then will still need ventilation during and after they're weaned from ecmo, which can take weeks. Then probably still be in itu for a time after, stepped down to the ward. It's a looong process.

"it might be useful to talk about euthanasia as a possibility for patients on ventilators but unlikely to recover"

I am in favour of allowing euthanesia only when patients are able to consent, possibly in advance of any illness
but not under sudden social / duty pressure because of the COVID threat.

If we ever get to a stage where there are insufficient ventilators,
then those with little chance of recovery might be taken off and ventilators given to those with a good prognosis

However, those taken off should be moved to another bed and given oxygen etc, not left to die and certainly not euthanised.

Sorry, should have said "Then probably still be in itu at their own hospital for a time after"

At the moment he's like, I want to enjoy my life while I still can and what's the point of living when you can't see family and friends?

The government’s ‘extremely vulnerable’ info does say that people with terminal illnesses might decide not to follow the shielding instructions and to discuss it with friends and family.

My own old people are quite matter of fact about it. Neither wants to be ventilated (but they live in near-isolation in a rural location anyway 😂)

From RKI (german public health) figures:

Pneumonia was only in ⅛ of COVID cases admitted

The most common symptoms are cough (51%), fever (42%) and rhinorrhoea (22%).

Pneumonia was reported in 2,509 cases (2%).
Hospitalisation was reported for 16,318 (16%) of 101,269 COVID-19 cases

Despite the high number of confirmed cases and a low threshold for hospital admissions,
the numbers actually in ICU are low - presumably the great majority are treated on other wards -

but the % ventilated is 70% - maybe they are the ones for whom all lesser measures failed.

oops typo, 75% of those in ICU were ventilated

847 UK deaths today

Euthanasia is about choice. It's about YOU making a decision how and under what circumstances you want to live or die. What is NOT about is the State making the choice for you to die because public hospitals can't cope with your treatment,

What's happening in care homes is forced euthanasia. Old people are dying in their thousands in retirement homes while society is justifying it - reminds me of what nazi germany did with the old, infirm and disabled.

What happened in the jeremey hunt question today I missed it

Those figures don't include the ramped up surge capacity in the hospitals, which are not yet on the DIVI system

So total is reported elsewhere as 40,000 ICU beds and 30,000 ventilators

Germany has been donating ventilators to the UK and Italy, so maybe these were not needed as much as the original estimates

I very much agree that euthenasia should only be the choice of that person,
not the choice of the state, not even the choice of their family

That choice should not be rushed or pressurised during a national crisis

Yeah sorry Reallybad I overstated ... I think there is a risk of think if only we had more ECMO beds we could save all these very sick 80+ year olds. It isn’t magic. Survival is only as high as it is because criteria for use are so strict.

It isn’t a procedure that I would want my older relatives (or even myself tbh) to undergo.

Death toll 847 today. (UK)

Down slightly from yesterday isn’t it?

Source:
www.theguardian.com/uk

Yes slightly namechange

Do you think the figures today mainly reflect the final flurries of social activities pre lockdown? If lockdown started 23rd march + incubation period + time unwell + and deaths take a few days to make it into the daily numbers that would make sense to me.

@Reallybadidea
Thank you for your explanations above. It’s so much easier to understand these things coming from someone like yourself who is obviously very well qualified.
Wish you well.

Some posters on here seem to thing they have all the answers when in fact they are talking utter rubbish, copying and pasting articles as gospel and sadly people are following them like lambs.

Yes, totally understand that. And I think you don't get that much of a 'feel-good payoff' when you work with ECMO patients, because you almost never witness them walking out of hospital because they've long returned to their home hospital. You can get really quite attached to these kinds of long stay patients and their families and then never find out what happened to them. I desperately hope that ecmo will be helpful for a good number of covid patients 🙏

Thank you @Coquohvan

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves Depending upon location, Hospital catchments are calculated on the proportion of patients from surrounding CCGs using their services. So, for example, Addenbrookes will take patients from Essex, Beds and Herts as well as Cambridge. It's an agreed catchment for accounting and planning. Public health organisations also cross ref information from district councils which aren't necessarily co-terminus with the health organisations boundaries.

The registered GP population is here with various other data

digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/patients-registered-at-a-gp-practice/april-2019