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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

999 replies

Barracker · 15/04/2020 20:28

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
78
MarshaBradyo · 17/04/2020 08:24

Thanks for all posts on 3%

I know I put the Oxford study in my post not sure why I did just typing loosely I think. I didn’t particularly rely on it but I did think 3% was very low. Probably should have left that part out.

The points made about why so low were good and really helpful.

pocketem · 17/04/2020 08:24

@midgebabe www.google.co.uk/search?q=isaric

Humphriescushion · 17/04/2020 08:28

Larry, i agree that making comparisions is not really possible with different methodologies. France did suddenly add care homes deaths about three weeks ago but they are added in now and both numbers are announced and are clear.

The problem i have is that the uk gov has said on a few occasions that the uk is tracking France when it is clear they are not. This is misleading. They have stoppee saying it now and the uk have added a new line to the graphs they show which i think has care homes in it albeit on a lag so this is good and more transparent.

larrygrylls · 17/04/2020 08:30

When,

You are correct but it is the 20% assumption that is completely unknown. Some think it is a massive overeat with swathes of asymptomatic and mild cases in the community being untested.

borntobequiet · 17/04/2020 08:36

The thing that I keep thinking about is those people who are exposed but don’t get infected at all. So not people who are asymptomatic, not people whose immune systems zap the virus, but those who just don’t contract it. It puzzles me that something so devastating for some can simply pass others by.

Gfplux · 17/04/2020 08:36

Those of us searching for answers have the Oporto see Hunt and Hancock go head to head this morning,
From Politico.eu mornings email.
QUOTE
HANCOCK HUNTED: The government will face prolonged scrutiny over its coronavirus strategy for the first time this morning when Matt Hancock submits to a grilling from senior MPs. The health secretary will go head to head with health select committee Chair Jeremy Hunt — the man who did his job for six years; sailed past him in the 2019 race to be prime minister; and has been snapping at the heels of the government over its record on COVID-19 testing — in a virtual hearing from 10.30 a.m.

Sic ’em: Hunt is bringing a gang of bruisers along to help. He has invited fellow committee chairs to form a liaison team alongside the usual health committee membership. The home affairs committee’s Yvette Cooper, foreign affairs committee’s Tom Tugendhat, science and technology committee’s Greg Clark and communities committee’s Clive Betts will all be on the call to press Hancock on a range of issues. The hearing will be a must-watch and available to livestream here, with health experts appearing first from 10 a.m.

QUESTION 1 … Must surely be about the damning survey of care home staff ITV revealed about an hour ago, which paints a grim picture of the coronavirus situation in the community. Some 42 percent of the 2,800 respondents reported a suspected outbreak of COVID-19 in their workplace, with 44 percent saying they knew at least one colleague with the disease. That is quite a break from official figures, which suggest only 15 percent of care homes have been affected by the virus. There are more worrying figures on PPE, testing and mental health support in the survey. Read the whole story here.
END QUOTE.
I don’t think the live links work in this copy and paste. If not check out their website.

Gfplux · 17/04/2020 08:38

Q3 and Q4
QUOTE
QUESTION 2: The committee will also no doubt probe Hancock on the further three weeks of lockdown (at least) that First Secretary of State Dominic Raab announced yesterday evening, and how the government hopes to ease the measures and get the economy running again in the future.

Homework: Committee members might want to read this piece in the Telegraph by Spectator Editor Fraser Nelson first. He says Cabinet ministers are no more clued up on the exit strategy than the public at large. “They’re not quite sure about the ‘five tests’ we keep hearing about, or what firm criteria would be used to judge them,” Nelson writes. “So if you see ministers getting angry when asked about an exit strategy, this is why. They have no answer to give.”

QUESTION 3: Hunt will be eager to grill Hancock on his target to reach 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month — in particular why the U.K. seems unable to do much better than 15,000 to 20,000 a day. Downing Street yesterday argued the testing issue was one not of capacity but of demand, a claim backed up by this piece in the Guardian by Gianmarco Raddi, a swab tester whose Milton Keynes facility Hancock visited last Thursday.
END QUOTE

Gfplux · 17/04/2020 08:39

Q2 Q3 Sorry.

Gfplux · 17/04/2020 08:43

Q4, Q5, Q6, Q7
QUOTE
Running commentary: “Our shifts were meant to be excruciating 12-hour marathons,” Raddi writes. “In reality, they are rather more like laid-back morning jogs. Dozens of academics and laboratory personnel from all over the U.K. languish in a hotel with nothing to do. Millions of pounds of equipment borrowed from universities and companies rests silently in the evening hours, when the noise of our collective toil should be deafening.” If the testing capacity is there, the committee will want to know why it’s not being reached.

Fight! The blame game over the ongoing testing issue revs up again in the Times. Whitehall officials blame health service delays in putting doctors and nurses forward, and hint that some are reluctant to be checked and sent back to work, the paper reports, while doctors blame a failure to make testing convenient, plus confusion about eligibility.

But but but: In the Telegraph, Institute of Biomedical Science President Allan Wilson insisted there are still not enough supplies to meet the 100,000 a day target. He said NHS lab workers were “increasingly expressing their frustration” because “they are still not able to source the testing kits and reagents they require … we are clear that it is a global supply shortage holding biomedical scientists back, not a lack of capacity.”

Ruh-roh: Justice Secretary Robert Buckland did not do Hancock any favors last night when he told BBC Question Time the German death rate has been lower because “their rate of testing has been much, much higher.” He added: “If we were testing much more widely, then we might have a different set of statistics.” Hunt will be interested to know whether the death rate is one of those statistics.

And another thing: The committee might want to ask about this New York Times scoop claiming the government spent $20 million on 2 million antibody test kits from Chinese firms … which later turned out not to work.

QUESTION 4: Are masks going to be a thing or not? Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty made it sound like a U-turn could be coming down the track very soon when he told the Downing Street press conference the debate around masks was “a very live issue.” In the Daily Mail, Political Editor Jason Groves says ministers are discussing whether the use of masks and gloves in the workplace and on public transport could be “the only way to allow a widespread return to normality once the home lockdown ends.”

Music to the ears of: London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who last night told BBC London he was “hopeful” the government would advise the use of face coverings such as scarves. Khan has written to ministers urging them to take on board global evidence suggesting face coverings can reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriers of the disease. On Newsnight last night, Shadow Health Minister Justin Madders agreed that masks “might be part of the solution.” Khan will be touring the broadcast studios to press his case this morning.

QUESTION 5: The committee will surely want to ask about the wider health impacts of the lockdown, after the ONS revealed the staggering number of excess deaths compared to past averages. Many of those deaths are not accounted for by COVID-19, and could be a result of people not getting help for other conditions. In the i newspaper, Professor Karol Sikora, a former head of the World Health Organization’s cancer program, warned that 60,000 cancer patients in the U.K. would die if the lockdown goes on for six months.

QUESTION 6: ITV’s Robert Peston tweeted last night that the new Nightingale hospitals are unable to accept patients with complex health needs on top of COVID-19, meaning many of the most serious cases have to remain in existing intensive care units. Playbook has heard the same from a source with ties to the London Nightingale: that only patients for straightforward ventilation are admitted, so the majority are staying in other hospitals. There are also rumors the hospital is struggling to get enough staff on stream.

QUESTION 7: Tugendhat, the foreign affairs committee chair, will presumably want to ask what Dominic Raab really meant at the Downing Street press conference when he said there would be “no more business as usual” with China once the coronavirus crisis is over. Bloomberg reports that government officials believe legislation allowing Chinese firm Huawei a role in the U.K. 5G network could now be at risk after Tory backbench attitudes hardened against Beijing amid the COVID-19 crisis.

Right then, Matt: Have fun! And there is plenty more to come when parliament starts getting back up to speed next week.
END QUOTE

peridito · 17/04/2020 08:56

I think Hancock may implode .He's been sounding increasingly exhausted ,his impeccable low key delivery punctuated by muddling words .

I'm not surprised .BJ has so dodged a bullet .

larrygrylls · 17/04/2020 09:00

Peridito,

I am not sure I would describe being in ICU and still clearly exhausted as ‘dodging a bullet’!

MarshaBradyo · 17/04/2020 09:04

Hancock sounds tired yes and also very frustrated with repeated out of lock down questions. He was quite good on R4 yesterday, told interviewer to stop asking pretty much.

Reallybadidea · 17/04/2020 09:11

Hancock lost his shit with Nick Robinson on R4 yesterday "will you please stop interrupting me!" I nearly choked on my cornflakes Grin

EThreepwood · 17/04/2020 09:12

Does anyone have any information or a graph on how the r0 is changing?

MarshaBradyo · 17/04/2020 09:14

Ha Yep I heard that Really

I did think good on you, interrupting and rushing people on R4 is too much. Drives me crazy when everything is stopped short.

peridito · 17/04/2020 09:16

larry - I thought ppl would understand that I meant BJ was dodging a political attack . A silver lining if you will for him .

I actually have zero sympathy for him .But that's for another thread .

Reallybadidea · 17/04/2020 09:20

I am massively frustrated by both interviewers and politicians in the general run of things - interviews become this stupid game where the journalist is trying to pressure the politician into saying something they don't want to/against the party line, at the expense of actually listening to what they're trying to say. And politicians mostly just avoid answering questions directly. Even when a plain yes or no would do, they add a huge amount of political waffle to obfuscate what they're saying.

Sorry off thread, just drives me loopy.

StatisticallyChallenged · 17/04/2020 09:22

Ethreepwood the imperial website has r0 through time estimates by country

Whenwillthemadnessend chances are - and this seems to be built in to the modelling - that the 20% hospitalisation rate is far higher than reality. It's that undiagnosed level which is a massive unknown that means the intervention and death rates are likely much higher than reality.

ageingdisgracefully · 17/04/2020 09:23

New to this thread. Thanks for posting.

Apologies if this has been asked already but does anyone know why Worldometer have stopped reporting "recovered" statistics? Confused

alreadytaken · 17/04/2020 09:41

Not sure if it was this thread but somewhere a person queried the low death rate in Wales. They have a lot of young people in ICU. www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-04-02/welsh-consultant-describes-incredibly-worrying-scenes-of-treating-critically-ill-young-covid-19-patients/

Jrobhatch29 · 17/04/2020 09:45

Wasnt this imperial collges estimations for severe and critical based on asymtomatic and missed cases

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
squid4 · 17/04/2020 09:57

I'm reading that herd immunity is not going to be possible without a vaccine. Testing going on in Wuhan now suggests only 2-3% have antibodies. Similar in NL though I thought their tests might be too early to show antibodies.

I can't seem to source the study this is based on, sorry, so take as open to questioning at this point

twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1250891843254050831

larrygrylls · 17/04/2020 10:05

Are there any harmful viruses that do not cause the host to produce antibodies? Or that the immune system fails to recognise later? Clearly, mutations mean a different virus, but I believe that (essentially) Corona-Sars2 mutates slowly and cannot swap DNA easily with other versions of Corona.

I know that, like all things biological, there will be exceptions. However, I struggle to believe that this will be the only virus that, even if it fails to mutate, will infect people over and over again.

StatisticallyChallenged · 17/04/2020 10:08

I think the wuhan antibody study may be the same study as found they weren't seeing the antibodies in many under 40s. There's a school of thought that younger people are somehow fighting it using different mechanisms. I can't find the reort I read though

squid4 · 17/04/2020 10:11

I'm speculating that the severe cases are the ones producing antibodies, but not the mild/asymptomatic cases - you do see that with some other viruses.
I'm a medical doctor but not an immunologist.
I'd like to see more work on this and will try and find the dutch and chinese studies

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