Given Iceland's data surely schools should go back.

[Floatyboat]

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?query=featured_coronavirus

It appears that kids either don't get it much or their immune system stamps it out so quick the chance of transmission is very low. Iceland has been able to keep schools open and still gets these figures for under 10's.

Clearly some caution/graded opening may be sensible but to continue with the current status quo and all the associated harm is not justified.

Any other conclusions to be drawn from this data?

I'm currently refreshing for news of whether our schools will go back on Monday (Germany). A step by step return is proposed - probably older secondary years and post compulsory will go back first and primary school will stay home.

Nordrhein-Westfalen (a German state with a population of 18 million) is going back all at once on Monday. Looking at their data in two weeks might be more relevant to the UK than tiny Scandinavian countries.

Schools/life in Iceland v schools/life in the U.K.
Testing/isolation there was SO removed from what we have in the U.K.
ITS MEANINGLESS HERE.

Personally I think that the vigorous testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures in Iceland have been absolutely key. The progression of the epidemic in Iceland so far suggests to me that you can keep a lot of things open or partially open and preserve a lot more personal freedom IF you have responded very strongly in other ways.

The UK hasn't done this and continues to respond weakly in these areas. My instinct would be to say that this is more significant than differences in population density, national character, education systems etc. I'm not an epidemiologist, though.

But @PuffinShop why do we need to slow this down more? We are within NHS capacity. We need to let this spread before a massive winter spike.

That's a fair point and it may turn out that Iceland has trouble in the long run from slowing things down too much. I suppose we will see.

We need to slow this down more because without very strong suppression measures (ie lockdown), it will totally overwhelm the NHS and would overwhelm any other health system in the world too. We can’t stay in lockdown forever, we can’t just let it work its way through the population, so following the example of a country that has suppressed it with testing and tracing is a good idea.

@AmelieTaylor

But surely the point about the relative infectiousness of the virus between children and adults is applicable to the UK. Other studies in other countries have shown similar.

Do you have evidence of significant spread in young children?

Surely people would understand schools are safer and more important than pubs. Hence one can be opened and one remain shut.

@BertNErnie

Genuine answer yes I would work in a school. As it happens I have a different job so would struggle for time.

Schools are not closed, they are just not open for everyone. If they opened fully, social distancing would not be possible so might as well be scrapped.
Most schools would struggle with staffing and children would be sent home at the slightest hint of a temperature or sore throat.
I want this to be over, I want to be back teaching my class full time, but not unless it is safe for us and the children and families. Lives before money.

The horizon programme the other day pointed out that even with the super low death rate it still equates to 800 children potentially losing their lives (if all children got it).

But not opening schools is not cost-free either. There are children being abused and neglected who are not being seen whilst schools are closed. There will be more mental health problems and physical health. Parents needing to provide childcare are unable to work driving to family towards poverty and in some cases homelessness. All these things have an associated mortality.

Hence one can be opened and one remain shut.

But you seem to keep missing that U.K. schools are open, OP. Is it just because they are not open to your child/children?

Acknowledging that U.K. was one of the very few schools to not close completely to all children (in the graphic I have posted, red means the country closed schools to each and every child, not just to keyworker/vulnerable children) in the first place, would be a nice start to avoid completely criticising the U.K.’s stance and secondly, does that also mean that some statistics quoted on this thread may well not fully relate to the U.K. yet anyway?

There are children being abused and neglected who are not being seen whilst schools are closed.

You are absolutely right on those not already known however, for those already known, they would have been offered a school place or support if place not taken up. Not a perfect system but more done than in other countries, to be fair.

There are children being abused and neglected who are not being seen whilst schools are closed

Those children will have been offered places in schools.

ChloeDecker that map is incorrect. Some schools in Germany definitely stayed partially open from day 1 for (more stringently defined than in the UK) keyworkers' children. My youngest's primary was completely closed but the special needs school my employer runs was offering childcare opening to very limited numbers of children, both its own pupils and any under 12 year old children from the area if and only if the child lived with a lone parent keyworker or both -not just one - parents were keyworkers.

This was policy throughout the state announced everywhere on the news and on the website of the ministry of culture, which covers schools, for the state.

Some kindergartens (3-6 year olds) stayed open with the same criteria.

Much stricter than the UK but the map is incorrect as the whole of Germany is red.

I dont think that study shows what you are saying.
They tested particular adults and kids. Mainly ones who had been exposed. (So maybe more adults had been exposed). Anyway more adults showing symptoms would actually be CV as they get fewer colds.
6% of the kids who had been potentially exposed did have it. But that is not saying they actually had the same chance of getting it as the adults.
But anyway 1/2 as likely to have it as an adult but still 30 of them in 1 room.
To be honest family /home studies make more sense as then you know they are actually exposed.

In the article from a thread about pg nurse dying another 40yo nurse (died) and partner 39 (hospital) and 14yo had been in hospital too. So in the situation where you know exposure the 14yo did get it too. Came out of hospital. But may end up an orphan.
Now assuming that came from hospital rather than school. However the girl would have been at school if she had it she can spread it.... People can spread to 1k people.
But as much as nhs workers and their family are already at risk. The risk will increase further out of lockdown as cases rise but also their own kids will become more likely to catch it at school and minimum 2w isolation.

If otoh the girl got it during school closure she didnt pass to the rest of the class.

Even if only 6% of kids were suseptible say thats 2 per class plus the TA and teacher. So 4 people in 1 room.
Also this study was calling them up by symptoms or contact.kids get lots of illnesses which could have got them identified in error and if they dont get symtoms of covid they are less likely to be identified.

A study looking at what happened in schools and classes with a positive case makes more sense.
Those italy returners teachers and students etc resulted in all this where else do you think the cases came from. And remember that although they went in a couple of days 1-2 it must have still been enough. So if there were cases in schools from just that time then thats how much it spread in much less time than a return to school with say a child on day 1 of infectiousness so average 5 days spreading without symtoms before day 6 they are off for 2w. But could be up to 28days. If they get symtoms at all. Do you seriously think there would be anyone - teacher or pupil who hasnt caught it then

Those children will have been offered places in schools.

And councils are very worried for them as very few are taking up the places. Parents who don’t want their children seen or aren’t caring for them simply do not send them. In some places less than 10% of at risk children are turning up.

*Some schools in Germany definitely stayed partially open from day 1

That’s helpful, thank you. (It’s why anecdotes can be useful to the debate, despite what the OP says!)
That map was from the 17th March (can totally appreciate things change) and I’ve been having a read and at this point in time in Germany, one ‘state’ Rhineland-Palatinate did provide some provision for some pupils. All other states in Germany are currently reporting full closure. Maybe private or SEND centres are different/not recorded? If so, it also shows that we can’t always take at face value what a country reports and therefore, seems fair to err on the side of caution on this issue, I would have thought!

@Floatyboat

Do you have evidence of significant spread in young children?

🙄you're not listening to anyone.

Just because Iceland doesn't, doesn't mean we wouldn't here. There whole situation is different, you can't cherry pick the bits that appeal to you.

@amelie I am asking a genuine question if there is evidence of significant spread. I don't know about it. If it exists I would like to know about it. I'll presume you don't know of any either.

And Chloe, that's not really an anecdote, it's a description of policy in part of Germany. My issue was with people citing single incidents of people getting or not getting coronavirus. Which I don't think helps.

What about the adults that work in them?

@davincitoad

Same as adults that work anywhere important?Carry on and take precautions.

And Chloe, that's not really an anecdote, it's a description of policy in part of Germany. My issue was with people citing single incidents of people getting or not getting coronavirus. Which I don't think helps.

Now I know for sure that you are being disingenuous with this thread.

@Floatyboat excellent- you have the solution! What is it? Do tell. Social distancing is off the table. What should I do??!