Given Iceland's data surely schools should go back.

[Floatyboat]

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?query=featured_coronavirus

It appears that kids either don't get it much or their immune system stamps it out so quick the chance of transmission is very low. Iceland has been able to keep schools open and still gets these figures for under 10's.

Clearly some caution/graded opening may be sensible but to continue with the current status quo and all the associated harm is not justified.

Any other conclusions to be drawn from this data?

Is this in under 10s or over 10s or both?

The evidence for under 10s is by far the strongest.

For older children (aged 12+) there have been a few documented probable cases of the virus being transmitted by children but transmission rates still appear lower than they are for adults.

That they aren’t ‘super’ spreaders or that they transmit it at the same rate as anyone else.

That they do not transmit as much as anyone else.

It may be worth reading the actual research.

www.fhi.no/globalassets/dokumenterfiler/rapporter/2020/the-role-of-children-in-the-transmission-of-sars-cov-2-report-2020.pdf

The latest figures I can find are 2017, puffin.

www.oecd.org/els/soc/PF3_2_Enrolment_childcare_preschool.pdf

This says that 37.7% of under 2 year olds and 100% of 3-5 year olds in the UK attend education.

Interestingly, of under 2 year olds it also says the average attendance hours is 19.1 a week compared to 37.2 in Iceland.

I am actually a bit blown away by that....

Sorry - I know it is a digression, but I find the comparison fascinating.

wintertravel1980 the "key message" of that research is that they have found cases of transmission by children and it's too early to say whether they play a major role.

Thanks for sharing OP. Communication from the government has been woeful. We are shutting down to flatten the curve, not to stop all of us getting it, ever. I worry desperately for my parents health but also appreciate we can't keep everyone at home for 1-2 years and come out the other end with a functioning NHS as there will be no taxes to pay for it.

The daily briefings need to be providing findings like this, with nuance about who is 'safer' from the virus. They need to start giving people an idea about what life after lockdown is likely to look like and why.

The"key message" of that research is that they have found cases of transmission by children..."

Correct - but while the have found some cases, the overall numbers appear small.

...and it's too early to say whether they play a major role.

It is too early to conclude with certainty - this is why I used the words "seem" and "appear". However, once you read through conclusions of all the studies, they appear quite consistent.

I don’t know why everyone is so quick to dismiss this research from four different countries with different populations.

More research is to be done for sure but it would be a real positive of children weren’t super spreaders. The research and evidence is building for this it’s just not conclusive yet. Hopefully in a few weeks we’ll have more data on this.

Thanks to all those that have shared this research. I had read something that was just based on children in China and it sounded promising. It’s good that other countries are being studied now.

Given that there appears to be a link with vitamin D, has this been looked at in these studies and does anyone know whether children in Iceland are given routine vitamin D supplements in the winter?

It has made me think that there are probably many very small schools in fairly remote areas - but that schools in urban areas are probably very different to those. How big are Iceland schools and nurseries? Do you have class size limits? How much room is there is the classrooms? Are children mostly indoors (I imagine it is cold most of the time?) or, like Scandinavian countries, is there an emphasis on getting outside (well wrapped up)?

Yes, I live in the capital area and there is a huge difference between us and the countryside. There are lots of teeny tiny schools in the rural areas because something like 90% of the population live in the capital area (there are a few other towns but nothing compares to Reykjavík). Those are the sort of schools that have mixed-age classes because they don't have enough children to make up a full class.

At our preschool classes are between 15 and 20 or thereabouts and two classes per school year. For our municipality there is just one preschool and one compulsory school so I assume it will be exactly the same when they go up, because they'll be the same group of children. I don't expect class sizes would get much higher than 25 anywhere. I don't know where to find that information, though.

There's definitely not enough room to have 2 metres between children. It can get a bit crowded I suppose when they're all running around. They do go outside for extended periods every day unless it's a storm, but yes the majority of the day is inside. It's not so cold, very mild climate compared to somewhere like Sweden or Norway, but the storms can be horrible.

Yes, it is a very different culture here regarding young children and preschool. I literally don't know anyone who didn't send their child to preschool as soon as their municipality offered them a spot.

Given that there appears to be a link with vitamin D, has this been looked at in these studies and does anyone know whether children in Iceland are given routine vitamin D supplements in the winter?

Yes, all year round! You have to take your cod-liver oil ;)

I am sure much will hinge on this - colder countries (Scandinavian as well I think) are better at ensuring vitamin d levels are good. We are coming out of a long winter and people are very depleted in it.

I think we should eagerly await more research on this with specific reference to corona virus.

As a thought experiment just take the children out of the equation. As established we aren’t so worried about them getting ill or spreading it.
Let’s just think about all the adults.

We have over 100 staff in my school. Usually 2 adults per class room, sometimes more, S&L staff, office staff, kitchen staff, cleaners.
We have three adult toilets. We have one staff room to eat in.
Even if you eat your lunch in the classroom you are still touching things that been touched by hundreds of people.

Then think about the parents. All walking in down the one same narrow path. All standing on the playground to pick up. All handing things to the teachers.
Some children, especially in secondary schools, travel to school on the bus. So busses would need to be back up and running.

Do you see the problem now?

@Floatyboat You still have not showed any statistics proving teachers and other members of staff are not at risk.

On balance yes I believe schools returning should be in phase 1 if loosening lockdown. Exactly as has happened in Denmark this week. This is on balance. Of course there are a (very) few cases of kids being badly affected by COVID but there are by far the exception and frankly kids can get other life threatening illness such as measles and yet we don’t keep them off school. We have to think in a balanced way here.

@MonaLisaDoesntSmile we are ALL at risk and a lot of us are going to catch this. We just are. Unless we shield, create herd immunity or get a vaccine (long long way off)

Opening schools doesn’t seem to be a priority in the other countries releasing lockdown.

Yep lockdown in the current sense won’t continue much past mid May. I don’t know when schools will go back but it will be before a vaccine is found. Therefore, unfortunately the risk won’t be low or zero at any point in the next year or so....

Exactly as has happened in Denmark this week.

Denmark has reopened primary schools with kids to stay 2m apart at all times. Lessons held outside, tiny classes.

Paralyzed by Panic: Measuring the Effect of School Closures during the 1916 Polio Pandemic on Educational Attainment

'Using state-level polio morbidity as a proxy for schooling disruptions, we find that children ages 14-17 during the pandemic had less educational attainment in 1940 compared to their slightly older peers.'

'...it is probably the case that the opportunity cost
of remaining in school today is much lower (given increases in returns to schooling over the past 100 years) than in 1916. Nevertheless, results suggest that there is a long-run cost when schools are closed as a response to disease outbreaks.'

www.nber.org/papers/w23890

It's not just the risk of illness that we need to take into account, it's also the effect that missing education has on children's future lives.

There needs to be a balanced, unemotional assessment of the relative risks.

"Also given school closures only happened late march why are we not seeing disproportionate amounts of middle aged teachers die on the news? Like we see doctors and nurses die. Presumably because schools aren't actually that risky / exposing people to high viral loads."

Maybe that is an indicator that working with children isn't as risky as might have originally been/is assumed by some. For normal flu children get it and spread it. This is different so needs to be treated differently.

Denmark do seem to be handling better than many countries have eg shut borders really quickly, went for much more strict shut down and also quicker than other countries did.

why are we not seeing disproportionate amounts of middle aged teachers die on the news?

Because no one is collating the data? There certainly have been deaths among school staff.

Look how long it took to get an answer about how many NHS workers had died.

Preschools and primary schools are scheduled to return completely to normal after 4 May in Iceland, anyway, which is when the first phase of loosening restrictions will start. It is indeed one of the first things they are bringing back with lots of other things still closed or restricted.

edition.cnn.com/2020/04/14/us/new-york-teacher-deaths-coronavirus/index.html

Thank you for sharing. Some positive news for some categories. As time passes more and more information will emerge and an informed decision of whether some children can return to schools will be made. Maybe we will see a phased return (a bit like Denmark) starting with some at primary... who knows

We all just want this nightmare to be over, and society to be able to recover from this.

The thing is - no one knows if those teacher in New York died due to contact with children or on the subway to work, at the supermarket, from relatives etc.....

New York is densely populated, and all sectors and all occupations have died there....