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Original poster

It's predicted we might well be the worst affected country in Europe

253 replies

KenDodd · 12/04/2020 19:26

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859

OP posts:
leckford · 13/04/2020 08:27

Self inflicted, 5 children all small, at least 2 already imprisoned in burkas.

MmmNutella · 13/04/2020 08:28

@MintyMabel to some degree variables can be factored in esp. when modelling. So I still think it is wise to see what other countries are doing.

nagynolonger · 13/04/2020 08:30

We will mostly just shrug our shoulders at this, if it turns out to be the case, and move on. There's nothing about the way the average English voter (and it is mostly English) behaves that suggests they care much about the elderly, the vulnerable, long term investment or healthcare. Why would the habits of a lifetime change now?

Brilliant 56 million people live in England! Who the hell are you to say how the average English voter thinks?

We are a very mixed bunch. I know there are some selfish, nasty arseholes. Every country has those. The former major of Heanor (Derbyshire mi duck) is a fine example.

midgebabe · 13/04/2020 08:32

Less than half the population voted Tory in the last election. It was just a resounding victory because of the way seats are allocated in parliament

Iamthewombat · 13/04/2020 08:33

Self inflicted, 5 children all small, at least 2 already imprisoned in burkas.

Whatever your opinion on burkas, have you considered the possibility that this family might have escaped war in their country of origin? Nobody chooses to live in one room with five children. To blame immigrant families for the spread of a highly-contagious disease feels pretty hard-hearted.

ElspethFlashman · 13/04/2020 08:33

Ireland isn't going to be lifted for a while. It's been extended to the May bank holiday and I fully expect it will be extended beyond that. We know the score.

It is working. There is still a lot of capacity. Some ICUs are full but only one or two. The rest have space and staffing & PPE levels seem fine. Leo said yesterday the darkest is yet to come in the next 2 weeks. Definitely no sign of any victory yet.

And we have been hit brutally hard with nursing home deaths, which are the biggest % of all deaths. It has been overhelmingly an older disease in Ireland, with very few younger deaths.

Having multiple Nursing home hotspots does seem to be sadly characteristic in other countries too. Which I presume is also characteristic in the UK except the media are very silent on nursing homes so nobody knows.

Inkpaperstars · 13/04/2020 08:34

I can see horrendous and inexplicable mistakes in the way this has been handled here, but the reporting on the response in other countries is often quite 'grass is greener'. I have seen some foreign media reports putting us in a positive light and contrasting that with their own problems, even though we have the same problems. I don't feel I know enough about the detail of how other countries have handled this to meaningfully compare right now. Either way, it's no excuse for us.

I also think it is a bit early to say how things will go after this first wave. If no vaccine or drug treatments are found then future waves will add up in other countries too.

Random18 · 13/04/2020 08:46

Elspeth we know its in UK nursing homes and people have died.

Off the top of my head I know of 13 people at one and 17 at another.

DeathByBoredom · 13/04/2020 08:48

Yes, it's an English characteristic. Can't tar the whole of the UK with the same brush. 47% Tory, 2% Brexit. To be fair that is slightly under 50% but it's the national character in general - fritter away state assets, under-invest, short termism.
If you disagree, presumably you would expect some kind of political change forced through by voters because of these shocking facts (if we do indeed end up with the worst stats etc)? I think what you will see is a collective shrugging of shoulders and an 'oh well' (best scenario. Worst is it all being various foreigners fault and us not being patriotic enough etc).

Binterested · 13/04/2020 08:55

There's nothing about the way the average English voter (and it is mostly English) behaves that suggests they care much about the elderly, the vulnerable, long term investment or healthcare. Why would the habits of a lifetime change now?

Yeah English people don’t care about the elderly. Even those who are elderly. Or vulnerable. They are just weird and stupid automatons.

Oliversmumsarmy · 13/04/2020 11:17

Less than half the population voted Tory in the last election. It was just a resounding victory because of the way seats are allocated in parliament

But all the other parties had even less people voting for them so even if it was purely on votes the Conservatives won.

Are we the only country in Europe struggling?

Are we struggling?

I thought Italy and Spain were having problems.

I agree we don’t think of our elderly.

You only have to look on here to see people who have written posts about getting rid of the baby boomers and elderly to force property prices down so they can buy a house.

B1rdbra1n · 13/04/2020 11:27

I think that higher levels of ill health are one reason for our worse situation, if the virus is a forest fire then we have a lot of kindling

MadameF · 13/04/2020 11:34

The UK didn't go into lockdown early enough and the existing lockdown isn't as strict as other European countries.
The population is also considerably more overweight than in Spain, Italy and France and overweight people are more at risk.

ssd · 13/04/2020 11:44

It's definitely Corbyns fault.
And the unemployed.
And single mums.

By Christmas, channel 5 will be showing TV programmes called "benefits scroungers ignore lockdown rules".

It can't possibly be Boris Johnstone and his governments fault, not at all.

B1rdbra1n · 13/04/2020 11:51

Ultimately everyone who's going to die of the virus is going to die of the virus

B1rdbra1n · 13/04/2020 11:53

But you can probably increase your chances of surviving the virus by avoiding heavy exposure/heavy viral load and making yourself as healthy as possible

LastTrainEast · 13/04/2020 11:54

"It was just a resounding victory because of the way seats are allocated in parliament" no one ever says this when their party wins

LoveIsLovely · 13/04/2020 11:55

"Ultimately everyone who's going to die of the virus is going to die of the virus"

Well not really.

If you have enough hospital beds and ventilators, far fewer will die than would have because they'll actually be able to be treated.

Unless you have some unknown insight into the virus.

MintyMabel · 13/04/2020 11:59

to some degree variables can be factored in esp. when modelling. So I still think it is wise to see what other countries are doing.

“To some degree” is not enough. A model based on shit in will give you shit out. In a pandemic, the likes of which we have never seen before, you are modelling based on the actions of people, of a society. You can not predict how people will act. What they do will also be different depending on the society you are looking at, the governement in place, the density and mix of people and places. These things have the biggest impact on spread, if you can’t model for them, the model is worthless.

Even if it were the case that you could model effectively with the known parameters adjusted for (and it really isn’t) that is not what these graphs and media reports are doing, are they? They are either using a blunt tool comparison to say that our government is shit, or is better than theirs, or for the mail, mirror, express et al to have shouty headlines predicting doom just to add more misery to

Ciwirocks · 13/04/2020 11:59

Under normal circumstances people would be seen with any viral illness/ pneumonia at an earlier point in their illness and would be admitted and treated with oxygen before they are on deaths door. They would then get a ventilator no question and even dialysis/ecmo if needed. Right now due to numbers the care is more basic than usual and people are not being seen until they are very ill. You are likely to have a much better chance of surviving this thing if you get it in a years time as opposed to now!

LastTrainEast · 13/04/2020 12:02

"The government is a dysfunctional bunch of brexit toadies" does that mean they slavishly did what the voters asked them to do instead of what ludicrouslemons wanted? :)

"devotion to a moronic pipe dream" does that refer to not being in the EU as we were not in it when I was younger. It was normal not to be in it and even now most of the world is not in it.

LoveIsLovely · 13/04/2020 12:02

"You can not predict how people will act."

You can though. And pretty quickly. You look at small samples of various areas and use that to make a model.

Not 100% accurate but good enough.

Of course it's difficult as this is unprecedented but you can have a fairly reliable model in a matter of weeks.

SandAndSea · 13/04/2020 12:17

@starlightgazers

I keep hearing this sort of thing but you are wrong.

Please read the whole paragraph as one point, not just that one sentence.

mochojoes · 13/04/2020 12:52

I agree we don’t think of our elderly.You only have to look on here to see people who have written posts about getting rid of the baby boomers and elderly to force property prices down so they can buy a house.

You can think that the housing market is weighted against the young & still care about the elderly.

leckford · 13/04/2020 13:06

Nightingale Hospitals, at a guess they are being built just to deal with the virus and hopefully some other hospitals can return to treatment for cancer and other illnesses.