Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Volcano !
Thanks Barracker It looks like a lot of work goes into those

I'm just assigning 31 March as "here be dragons" and moving on

(you could always push your MP to ask about it - they can ask questions even when Parliament isn't sitting)

Absentmindedwoman The govt advice was to WFH when possible, but said nothing about only essential workers when WFH not possible

Some greedy employers like The Range have dragged in a freezer and some tins, so they require customers to purchase one food items along with all their furnishings etc

Other businesses just seem to be carrying on - sometimes even without 2m spacings - saying they'll go broke if they just stop

Apologies if already posted (I've not seen it - but doesn't mean its not here!)

the dashboard page has now split down testing across pillar 1 and pillar 2
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

pp upthread asking about care home deaths:

France was mentioned - and adding those deaths causes a big jump in figures and the curve

Germany seems to include care homes too

• that seems the main difference between RKI (German public health institute) figures, which are just electronically summed from all the hospitals

and the higher figures that Worldometers get from Tagespiegel which includes care homes There has been a surge of deaths in care homes here

Germany includes all deaths where the patient tested positive for CV, even if they are age 100+

so there have been estimates that the total deaths might in fact be no higher than for the same period in 2019,
because of lower deaths from RTAs, flu, work, pubs etc

@BigChocFrenzy I did not know that!! I won’t be off back.

Some greedy employers like The Range have dragged in a freezer and some tins, so they require customers to purchase one food items along with all their furnishings etc My local Range has a branch of Iceland in it, always has had since it opened. Don't know about others.

Some Range employees have posted that their branch brought in freezers for the first time,
so they could stay open

Also customers reporting that when they go in, they are told they have to include a food item in their shop

Not surprising, as away from shops, quite a number of non-essential businesses are still going, with workers reporting they have to go in

• GDP estimates might be a lot worse otherwise, if only WFH going on

Maybe better if the law were tightened, so that the non-essential shelves had to be roped off from customer access

However, going by reports in the Telegraph and elsewhere,
the govt never intended non-essential employees to stop working if they couldn't WFH

Boris is worried lockdown has gone too far, but only he can end it

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/09/boris-worried-lockdown-has-gone-far-can-end/?

At each daily press conference, medical and scientific advisers talk about the plunge in use of transport and how well rules are being observed.

What they don’t say is that this was not quite in their original plan.

Government modellers didn’t expect such obedience:
they expected workers to carry on
and at least a million pupils to be left in school by parents.
.....
“Our message was supposed to be: keep working, but work from home if possible,”
says one minister.
“But that message has got lost.”

The Treasury expected three million claimants for its “job retention” scheme.
Nine million are now expected.

My local range has always sold food and had a freezer section. Since at least 2012.

larrygrills the spreadsheet I linked to above shows nos of tests per day

and nos of people tested etc

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

Back to stats - Italy v UK, 2 weeks offset:

Also as the range sells lots of DIY stuff surely they're allowed to be open anyway... Hardware stores are classed as essential under the government guidelines. So I don't see why they'd have to close.

When I last visited friends in the UK, Reading 2017, their Range had no food section at all

It depends whether a shop sells primarily essential goods, or just has a section of them

However, if some branches are suddenly dragging in freezers and / or requiring customers to buy a food item
then that sounds like managers are concerned they might not otherwise be allowed and are using loopholes

Wasn't it the Range boss who aid he planned to make a lot of money with competitors being closed ?

I was surprised to find out today my local range is open.

I've never known it to sell food.

Mainly home furnishings and art and craft stuff.

There is some DIY stuff in 1 or maybe 2 aisles!

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2020-04-10/republic-of-ireland-extends-lockdown-for-three-more-weeks/

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has extended the Republic of Ireland’s coronavirus lockdown by three weeks,
saying the decision has been taken on expert advice.

The restrictions will now remain in place until at least Tuesday 5 May.

twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1248215014017765378?s=21

This is an Irish chart not a U.K. one but very interesting.
RIP.ie is an Irish website for death notices. Irish families/undertakers will always put a death notice on this site within a day of a death.

The graph shows the deaths notified on each day for the last number of years.
The increase in deaths since Covid 19 hit is significant but deaths have also increased by more than the official number of Covid deaths. Ireland, unlike the UK, includes nursing home and other deaths in its figures.

The additional deaths could either be undetected Covid deaths or other deaths occupying because of Covid eg people not going to hospital with strokes of heart attacks.

My local Boots has got the cosmetics/fake nails section roped off.

I went in for the first time in a month yesterday, mostly to buy hair dye for my neighbour, who had given herself a patchy bleach job and has a new enough baby for bad hair to be considered a mental health emergency and was a bit worried when I saw the front half of the shop closed off.

My husband’s industry is largely still working, big factories but relatively few operators on the factory floor (no production lines). They’ve just marked out 2 metres distance on the floors and have staggered breaks so none are taken together. He and all the other non-site based managers and project managers have been furloughed though, and demand for production is drying up.
There will definitely be redundancies and probably entire site closures. The company has multiple sites in several European countries and Brexit had already depleted the British workforce, so it will be U.K. sites that close.

Considering we are all feeling the consequences of the shrinking of British manufacturing and the move to a service based industry, I can see why the work at home advice wasn’t intended to stop blue collar workers carrying on as usual, and why the government is trying to shore up businesses.

Also as the range sells lots of DIY stuff surely they're allowed to be open anyway... Hardware stores are classed as essential under the government guidelines. So I don't see why they'd have to close.

Homebase has closed all its stores and b&q has some open but click and collect only. The bosses of The range are wankers for trying to profit out of this, and as much as I love shopping there I'll be avoiding them after this.

The sheer lack of actual SCIENCE in the science that was being used is truly shocking.

post.parliament.uk/analysis/covid-19-school-closures-and-mass-gatherings/

Roughly 15% CV infection rate found
in the German study by Uni Bonn
in the Diamond Princess,
in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen

Coincidence ?
certainly more studies needed, as all 3 examples are smallscale and under a particular set of circumstances
CV was not allowed to "let rip" in any of the cases

spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

@BigChocFrenzy

That's a very interesting article, explains why there's so much misunderstanding around what Boris meant when he said work from home if you can, looks like they deliberately mislead, so the have room to avoid the blame when the strategy goes wrong. So if most had carried on working, as they expected us to, Boris could say he told us all to work from home, didn't work though and despite everyone being more obedient than expected, we still have the highest number of deaths per day.🙁

My local Range has a branch of Iceland in it, always has had since it opened. Don't know about others. ours opened an Iceland in store last year - long before all this started. Didn't the government say just today or yesterday that if a shop was allowed to be open it was allowed to sell anything it normally would? And the comment about lockdown being too successful I think has a point. The government will have built an error amount into its calculations about how many people will abide by the rules and I'm assuming would have went for a stronger lockdown if they didn't want this. I'm also assuming they will want to keep icu and new hospitals pretty near capacity to get people 'through the system' and discharged with some kind of immunity rather than empty hospitals now and a second large wave come winter.

CDC report
Hospitalization Rates and Characteristics of Patients Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019 — COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1–30, 2020

Includes stats for race and for comorbidities (attached), hospitalisations not deaths

the overall laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated hospitalization rate was 4.6 per 100,000 population;
rates increased with age, with the highest rates among adults aged ≥65 years.

Approximately 90% of hospitalized patients identified through COVID-NET had one or more underlying conditions,
the most common being obesity, hypertension, chronic lung disease, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease.

At each daily press conference, medical and scientific advisers talk about the plunge in use of transport and how well rules are being observed

That's the Brits for you....