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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

999 replies

Barracker · 10/04/2020 12:07

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
77
BigChocFrenzy · 15/04/2020 13:12

Lockdown Exit plans - and the economic crash

The UK has suffered less economically so far than most neighbours,
but maybe because UK has had fewer weeks so far in lockdown.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4
NewAccountForCorona · 15/04/2020 13:17

Also the UK lockdown isn't as severe.

Manufacturing still seems to be going strong. There must be a fortune being made in home delivery (Amazon etc)m which is still functioning. More shops are open, more people are "essential workers" than in some other countries.

I think UK is the only lockdown country with childcare/schools still open. I know they are open for essential workers only, but that still means teachers working, more people on public transport etc. Even hotels seem to be open in some of the UK (I know they say they are for essential workers, but are they all?) More people working means fewer collecting social security, meaning less economic effect.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 15/04/2020 13:23

@BigChocFrenzy it is intuitively obvious that the median infection age should be lower than the median age of the population, since younger people are more sociable, infection rates for flu are far higher among children, etc.

Therefore Germany's median case age is higher than the (true) median infection age, but it gets closer to the true figure than the UK.

In other words the difference between the median case age and the median population age should be inversely proportional to the number of tests - the more testing you do, the more will be not-very-sick young people at minimal risk, and the less you do, the more will be the very ill, who are, quite plainly the very old.

We need to look at several parameters:

  • test positive rate (%) - if this is very low, then testing is adequate, if it is high than testing is hopeless. The UK's latest positive % (of daily tests) was 44.2% which is absolutely fucking shit and evidence of the absolute total utter failure of the government to provide adequate testing infrastructure. As a national rate it should be single digits, and perhaps for plague-ridden cities such as London & New York it could plausibly be in the teens. [this parameter should be published]
  • median population age [this parameter should be easily googlable for any country]
  • median age of those testing positive [most likely published]
  • median age of those who are infected [unknown, can be estimated from the above]

In other words if there is a very high % of positive tests, such as in failed countries such as the UK, necessarily the case age must be far older than the infection age. Countries with very low infection rates and minimal testing OR high infection rates & adequate testing for that should give case ages that are fairly accurate.

Of course the obvious thing is simply random sample testing of the population. Suffice to say I see no reason why infections should be older than the population as a whole, but plenty of reasons why most countries completely fail to address the testing challenge resulting in test data that are useless for most purposes (such as the spurious 'survival rate' often quoted).

Al1Langdownthecleghole · 15/04/2020 13:25

I'm cheering your last post BigChoc, but this needs repeating and repeating.

Early treatment - not the last gasp UK hospitalisation - means much higher survival rates
German hospital doctors interviewed keep banging on about how important it is to bring in cases as soon as there are breathing problems, to avoid ever needing ICU

We are belatedly increasing testing, but that is pointless if people don't get the optimum treatment.

Edujaded · 15/04/2020 13:39

'As long as there is this denial about the UK under-performing so much,
there will not be the pressure to make the necessary improvements'.

Precisely my fears @BigChocFrenzy. I know friends living abroad are really worried for us. I think this is because they have a better perspective of the scale of the problem which is being misrepresented in the UK. I think sadly because the political narrative has been so polarised for so long here, covid19 is following that same trend.

This is why this factual discussion here is so valuable. Again, thank you!

Barracker · 15/04/2020 13:48

Apologies, I forgot to post yesterday's update:

      • DAILY UPDATE * * * Tuesday APRIL 14th

Total UK cases: 93,873
New UK cases: 5,252
Total UK Deaths: 12,107
New UK Deaths: 778

OP posts:
namechangemania · 15/04/2020 13:56

Any news on any figures for today yet?

Gfplux · 15/04/2020 13:57

I live in Luxembourg and I was an Alpine skier well into my early 60’s.
I have seen recently twice in this threads phrases like
“Young Germans who Ski, Young German Skiers returning”

Where does this presumption come from? Anyone living in England might be forgiven as it is a sport for very few people.

Alpine and cross country Skiing is not just a Young persons sport in many European countries. Alpine and cross country Skiing is much like Tennis.
Many Germans are introduced to it at an early age and continue often well past retirement,

Unless there are statistics to support assumptions we need to be careful what is said about the habits of “foreigners”

LWJ70 · 15/04/2020 13:59

Germany's deaths are much lower than the UKs, at 3495. I agree with previous posters, it could be due to their efficient health system, lockdown procedures and early admittance to ICU.

Interestingly it turns out that Germany males intake 4.4 µg/day vitamin D3 whilst UK males typically intake 2.2 µg/day. The German data is from a study of 8000 adults.

German 'public awareness of potential health effects of vitamin D deficiency has increased due to intense scientific debate and media coverage......Support for this hypothesis is indicated by the doubling of unit sales of prescription and over-the-counter vitamin D preparations between 2008 and 2013'.

Spanish males typically intake a low quantity of D3: 0.7 µg/day which is six times less than the German males.

Males in Finland intake 11 µg/day and interestingly Iceland males intake 11.5 µg/day.

data from:
eje.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/eje/180/4/EJE-18-0736.xml#bib1
bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-015-2016-7

A previous post of mine has linked covid 19 survival to vitamin D3 serum levels to survival rates, with and summary of multiple data sources:

www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19%20and%20Vitamin%20D%20Information.pdf?dl=0

Unfortunately and understandably it seems that UK ICUs are not testing for low serum D3 in covid 19 patients, but a few ICU consultants in the US are and they are finding a correlation with cytokine storms and survival and D3 serum levels. Data is coming in sporadically. There is a study going on in Granada, Spain, but it will take a couple of months for the results to be released.

larrygrylls · 15/04/2020 14:00

Bigchoc

I did read your other points and accept them. However I believe that the excellent care available in Germany will make a (relatively) small difference to the CFR. So, if Germany, due to its excellent care, saved 20% more cases than the U.K. (of those who would have died) I would find it impressive, but 3x as many or 200% more is far better explained by average age of tested cases.

There is, I hope, no one in the U.K. who is not already very old and very frail (likely to die very soon anyway) who is being denied ‘basic’ care, including oxygen and antibiotics, in any first world country. It is these interventions that save the vast majority. not heroic last ditch ICU interventions.

PinkGinny · 15/04/2020 14:00

www.nrscotland.gov.uk/filesstatistics/covid19/covid-deaths-report-week-15.pdf

Just thought it worth adding the Scottish National Records report here which is very clear and provides a break down of all registered deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned. This is the Scottish version of the ONS and will be produced weekly from now.

In summary to 12th April 962 registered deaths v. 566 daily confirmed deaths. 62% in hospital v. c. 25% in care homes, c.70% in over 75s

In week 15 to 12.04 1, 969 v. a 5 year rolling average of 1,100 = excess deaths of 869

MrsRaab · 15/04/2020 14:04

Wales reporting 60 deaths

LWJ70 · 15/04/2020 14:05

Sorry, Iceland males intake an even larger quantity of D3: 13.5 µg/day

MrsRaab · 15/04/2020 14:06

Scotland reporting 84 deaths

NewAccountForCorona · 15/04/2020 14:10

Does anyone think Boris would have avoided intubation had he been left at home until the last minute like everyone else?

Surely taking everyone like Boris in, treating them with Oxygen and watching their SATS closely would avoid the necessity of intubation for many. Leaving them at home to deteriorate is not helping.

I really didn't like the NHS Covid support tool posted by BigChoc earlier. Going by that anyone over 60, with any health issues, would be over the level for treatment. Early admission should be the aim, not keeping people out of hospital (and out of the official figrures Hmm) at all costs.

And yes, the Nightingales are understaffed; they have to be - no hospital in London has staff to spare, especially ICU staff. But they could be open for precautionary or prophylactic treatments with care staff (if there are any of those spare).

peoplepleaser1 · 15/04/2020 14:10

More shops are open, more people are "essential workers" than in some other countries.

I just wanted to point out, (as there seems to be a misconception about this in some places), that anyone who cannot work from home is permitted to work, regardless of how essential their role might be.

I'd prefer that this wasn't the case, but it is. I've stopped working as my work took me in and out of 20-25 homes a day. But many people in my industry are legitimately working.

peoplepleaser1 · 15/04/2020 14:14

@LWJ70 what level of vitamin D would you suggest for an adult in the UK, and a 13 year old? I've been trying to read about it but am overwhelmed by all the info available online. It sounds like it's sensible to take a high dose, but I'd assume that there are also dangers to overdoing it?

Oakmaiden · 15/04/2020 14:16

I have an uncomfortable feeling the uk figure is going to be close to 1500 today, based on a figure of 60 for Wales (pop 3.3million). Hope I am way out (but I guess it would not be unrealistic to add 200 onto each of the past 2 days, which would mean my projection only gives a rise of 100)

MrsRaab · 15/04/2020 14:16

@peoplepleaser1

www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/

schimmelreiter · 15/04/2020 14:18

This is what the nh s says: www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/

Zofloramummy · 15/04/2020 14:18

England reporting 651

NewAccountForCorona · 15/04/2020 14:18

What were Scotland and Wales yesterday (struggling to find figures for individual UK countries).

I wondered that peoplepleaser; in Ireland no working unless essential (and they appear to mean really essential; food medical, industry for those only).

hopefulhalf · 15/04/2020 14:20

Wow really thought it would be more than a thousand . Maybe worse again tommorow but surely that's good news.

IamHyouweegobshite · 15/04/2020 14:20

801 total today, I think tomorrow we will see a big rise. Sad

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 15/04/2020 14:20

Latest England figures out. Updated my spreadsheet gofile.io/?c=RddgGU

No unpleasant surprises, 8 April now all but certain to be the peak with 800+ deaths in England. Might be down 15-20% from 8th April now, so still quite high

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