Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

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Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I think tomorrow will be the “big” day for numbers. Those Scottish and Welsh deaths go into tomorrow’s count (I think).

Scotland was 40 yesterday and I think Wales was 19.

But every day that there is not a big rise has got to be a good thing surely ?

It's a real minefield quoting recommended vitamin D3 doses. Even academics can't agree. 4/5 years ago there was a scandal among researchers and advisers - it was found that there was a statistical error in calculating the recommended dose. To make things worse, there are two different units for quoting serum blood levels and it's easy to mix up the two. Luckily for dose they use IU.

''According the AAP clinical report, Optimizing Bone Health in Children and Adolescents, infants under 12 months require 400 International Units (IU) per day and older children and adolescents require 600 IU per day.''

www.healthychildren.org/English/healthy-living/nutrition/Pages/Vitamin-D-On-the-Double.aspx

If it was about catching up from the weekend shouldn't today be the big rise? Or does it take a couple of days to feed into the stats?

^But every day that there is not a big rise has got to be a good thing surely ?*

Not on this thread it seems.

I think because we had a long bank hol weekend, there will be a backlog of inputting data? I think tomorrow will be the telling. Although with all the people who have been out in the sun and not abiding to lockdown, those figures will be going into May.

The figure for today is ‘good’, normally we see a low figure for a Monday, then it spikes on a Tuesday when the figures have been swept up. This week with bank holiday Monday yesterday would have been our ‘low’ day and then a more ‘true’ figure today.

Am I clutching at straws?

As I said previously, social services and councils don't work on Tuesdays after this bank holiday so I think tomorrow will be counting like normal days.

I found vit am in d tablets at 4000iu, which I 'converted ' using a converter on the internet and it came out to 100ug which is apparently micrograms - so ten times what the nh s is reccomending. My doctor mother said to take one a week, although the packet seems to assume one a day. You can have bad effects from vitamin d if you build up too much. I am not a doctor but I would be wary, I hate the idea of a cytokine storm as much as the next person, but that is no reason to take so much more than the recommended dose of vitamin d in my opinion.

The figure for today is ‘good’, normally we see a low figure for a Monday, then it spikes on a Tuesday when the figures have been swept up

That's what I thought, hoping it's a good sign ( always with the proviso that no number of deaths are good.)

But every day that there is not a big rise has got to be a good thing surely ?

Not on this thread it seems

Low numbers are excellent when they are a true reflection of what is going on. When it is reasonably obvious that they are likely to be lack of data/slow reporting low figures are problematic.

Well time will tell.
I don't find it unbelievable that this week will represent this peak. There was some social distancing going on before the 23rd. I had meetings at work that week (15th-20th )with chairs further apart than normal, the vunerable had been shielded and people were self isolating.

Exactly. If the numbers stay lower tomorrow I think we can be pretty sure we’re past the peak.

I hope it's a good sign, thought it would be worse today, but afraid that there will be more of a backlog than usual from BH weekend. But holding on to the small glimmer of light. RIP to those 801

Larry You keep going by your "feel" and not by the available data

You keep ignoring everthing except age

• and your theory of the lower age of infected Germans is not even supported by data:

• As shoots posted, median infection age should be lower than median age So even the German age at infection should be lower than it is in the stats

The UK confirmed cases miss out nearly all the 80% who are low-moderate symptoms
If these were included, then the UK age at infection would be massively lower

• finding far more of the infected cases means they are isolated and under serious legal constraint to stay home
  rather than in the UK people assuming it's just a cold and at least going out for food

• v early medical monitoring right through to breathing problems makes a really big difference to prognosis,
  according to German doctors here, who explain why everyone has to be treated early

It's not even just waiting until people turn blue - as MNers on the lungs threads are reporting happened to them -
it's treatment while still at home, then whipped into hospital for oxygen etc at the eariest sign of breathing problems

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Yes I always check this. 8th April is the highest at the moment but I think we need tomorrow and Friday at least to see what happens maybe even next week

8 April now all but certain to be the peak with 800+ deaths in England.

I hope you’re correct, but unless you’re privy to additional information, you’re rash to be “all but certain”. Italy had a surprise jump to a record a couple of weeks back after a few days of apparent decline.

But every day that there is not a big rise has got to be a good thing surely ?

It is but some people tend to read too much into it, only to be disappointed when their hopes are dashed. I’ve seen too many people greet “positive” numbers prematurely the past few weeks.

Let's wait and go by data, not by feel

If the lower UK figures persist for the next week after Easter, then it is highly likely that the peak has happened earlier than forecast

The questions then will be:

• how long deaths stay around 800, before dropping significantly

• what number of deaths are "acceptable" and what replacement measures are feasible,
  before the UK can join some other European countries and maybe the US in coming out of lockdown and restarting the economy

btw, does anyone know if peak forecasting by epidemiologists included all CV deaths, or just those in hospital ?

Today’s number tweet

The numbers have been consistent for over a week now, they seem to be plateauing, is that still not a good thing?

A reminder that this thread is for civil discussion. Anyone implying that people here want, enjoy, or hope for high death numbers is going to get reported. It's definitely not in the spirit of Mumsnet, and it isn't in the spirit of these threads.

If you can't distinguish between people wanting accurate, reliable stats, and people wanting deaths, you're on entirely the wrong thread.

My comment is perfectly civil, are you going to report it?

What is going on with the figures anyway? Scotland announced 84 Wales 60 NI 6 and England 651 which gives 801? Which makes figure more than the government announced as combined figure??? Was the Scottish figure including care home figures? Or what? They did the same yesterday. No idea wtf is going on with these figures