Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I think the next couple of days will be telling.

But are the Nightingale hospitals still empty? So our capacity is ok. For now.

ChardonnaysPetDragon
I haven't reported it, because I chose to assume you didn't really intend to imply that people on this thread saw "not a big rise" in actual deaths as "not a good thing".
Someone who intended to suggest that would be a nasty dick, obviously. We've had a few of those on these threads, and fortunately they've been shown the door.

I hoped you understood that it's not a good thing to have unreliably low stats, which is what people here think is 'not a good thing'.
Perhaps you phrased clumsily.

I gave you the benefit of the doubt.

You can’t really show the door on someone on a public forum that’s not yours, though? It’s a thread everyone can post on, is it not?

Do you have some data or analysis to contribute to the thread? ChardonnaysPetDragon?
Or a relevant question?

I wouldn’t be posting otherwise.

I’m sorry it upset you.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Wednesday APRIL 15th

Total UK cases: 98,476
New UK cases: 4,605
Total UK Deaths: 12,868
New UK Deaths: 761

Don't worry, I'm not in the least upset by you.

Let's move on.

The Government Covid data portal has been improved
Useful info on timing of data cutoffs here
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about

@sos I noticed the discrepancy with the figures, hadn't realised until today that Scotland are including care home deaths in the data, why on earth can we not do that? Wales figure is very high today. So incredibly sad.

I am really confused as the numbers don’t match up today, reporting said 801 but now it’s 761? Is there a way that trusts can adjust their originally reported figures.

TIA. Have not posted before but followed from the start. and thanks to all contributors.

It would be great if the peak was 8th of April - for the announced numbers anyway. We can then hope that the actual peak is around now working on the principal that the care home/ONS data, as well as the additional NHS data collated on Barracker's pyramid are around a week behind.

Every single person on the thread would be delighted by (a) reducing figures (b) accurate figures , and if both those have passed their peak, hopefully we are past the worst of it.

@ChazsBrilliantAttitude

Thank you for answering my Q before I had even posted it

Re the 801/761 discrepancy - IIRC this has previously been a result of Scotland’s figures spanning a different timeframe so they aren’t all counted in today’s overall UK number.

Does anyone remember a report a week or so ago that compared Covid to seasonal flu? It was a really good spreadsheet, and indicated the long term outcome for the first around 3000 Covid patients. I'd love to see an updated one of those; I'm concerned by the lack of figures for outcome of people who are on ventilators for a long time.

I shudder when I see NHS staff clapping patients moving out of ICU because I hate to think that being stepped down to a normal ward is so rare the entire staff can stop to cheer.

If the numbers continue (or hopefully drop) tomorrow, I'm wondering if they will consider making changes to the lockdown along the lines of some countries such as small shops and easing travel restrictions to allow people to at least return to their homes (I'm stuck 140 miles away at dp's because I was there on the Monday, need to check on my house!)

To give an example, my relative died on a Saturday & the Hospital Medical Examiner rang me at 14:15 on the Monday to discuss her medical history and to seek my agreement about what she proposed to put on the death certificate. Relative wouldn't have appeared in the data before Tuesday.

After a 4-day Bank Holiday, those phone-calls are probably still happening today and so I would imagine the recording lag could go into Friday.

The same happened yesterday as well. Yesterday I added up each country and got 818. So I don't know. Think the fact that Scotland said 25% of figures were care home figures. Dreadful, simply dreadful.. I would say we have passed the 20,000 that the Government would deem as good ( bs!). 😡I hate to say this but I think Government is being political about the numbers.

I'm not really sure why people are expecting the number of deaths to shoot up. Italy's worse day for deaths was March 27th, which was 18 days after they went into nationwide lockdown. UK is now 23 days into lockdown.

@NewAccountForCorona

To be clear I'm referring to the date of death of 8 April. Not the reporting date. Reports necessarily lag actual death dates. I am looking at the date of death from the daily NHS England reports of death by date of death.

I'm hoping lockdown continues until end of May, although I think it needs to get tougher as the weather improves, too many people where I live are out and about, car volume has increased yesterday and today as well. However, I think after Rishi Sunak's economy speech I think we may now come out sooner than anticipated. Absolutely scary!

If you look at the graphs over time deaths are under reported on a weekend and swept up later in the week. This is administrative rather that reflecting a real drop and spike.

We are waiting to see what effect a 4 day weekend has had. Is the drop a real drop (fingers crossed) or an administration backlog.

Does anyone have a local hospital trust that still reports deaths on its own website?
I'd like to do a sample reconciliation between locally reported and the central NHS timestamped spreadsheet.

For example, when the newspapers reported deaths by trust a couple of weeks ago, before the central database was public, I took a look at Morecambe NHS Foundation trust website. At that point, their media page was reporting each day the numbers of deaths, including the age and sex.
The page has been removed since.

But if any of you have a hospital Foundation trust who is reporting, or has reported on their own websites deaths at that trust, perhaps on their media or news pages, can you let me know?

In particular, I'd like to take a look at that blip on the 29/30/31 March to see if this throws up the explanation.

Iam
Lockdown is not going to get rid of CV it is just stopping the NHS drowning. There is a real concern about a second wave (look at Singapore).
CV may well re-emerge next winter.

On GMTV this morning I think they said there were 21 patients in the London Nightingale Hospital. Let’s hope it doesn’t need to expand from the 400 beds in place.