Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

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Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Although we are doing worse than other countries in Europe, given the doubling rate of this virus, I am somewhat relieved that we are still within the same order of magnitude. I think it would have been very easy to have had numbers, or be looking like achieving numbers in the range of ten times higher than we currently look set for.

I am obviously sorrowful that we did not emulate countries which have deaths in orders of magnitude ten times lower, but I am looking at this positively. It could have been (and still could be, no counting chickens here) a whole lot worse.

What is the aim of countries like NZ? Are they aiming to eliminate it entirely in the country until a vaccine is found?

I don't think the UK Govt has got everything right (far from it) but aren't we simply seeing more of our inevitable deaths earlier in the life of this virus? Is there any evidence that a substantial numbrr of deaths have been caused here due to an overwhelmed NHS?

I do take on board that it sounds like some have been caused by lack of PPE and possibly lack of earlier intervention with oxygen therapy.

But if the UK got it so wrong then Spain and Italy did too?

Ghastly as it sounds to say it, I guess only the final figures will tell.

As far as I know, the aim in NZ is elimination of the virus if possible, and then I guess, keep borders closed until a vaccine is found? I don't know if this is achievable.

@newaccount - bit late on your comment re South Africa but my family is there. Whilst we can question the data / real numbers (hard to know,) the president has handled it brilliantly so far. They locked down much earlier than in UK - days before us and there were only 1 or 2 deaths recorded. The lockdown is very severe (no going out except for food or medicine). The testing is going well - there are drive through centres and teams going door to door. Whilst its too soon to say that SA could fare better than many - there is poverty, high population density, lack of sanitation and shortage of medical care for all - there is also a very young population and an inoculation programme including the BCG for TB (which India also has) which is being looked into as possibly having an effect. So I would not immediately dismiss that they might be doing some things correctly. I hope anyway!

I've just found the answer to my own question about Scotland.

Here's some graphs from the BBC website; we are on a lower path.

I don't think "being on a lower graph" is the important thing. What matters is gradient, rise over run. There are lots of arguments about the correct point at which to align the graphs, whether from the first, or the tenth, or the fiftieth. Really, these just serve to translate the graph horizontally or vertically. This makes it easier to compare gradients, but doesn't actually change it. A lower but parallel graph is in exactly the same position, growth wise, as its higher neighbour.

As far as the correct point to align graphs, my own take would be, the later the better. It seems to me to be very much like a dice rolling experiment. If you roll it 6 times, you wouldn't expect to get one of each number. 60, you would expect the figures to be closer in relative terms to 10s, 600 even more so. Down in the early figures you are much more at the mercy of random events (in this case, how many people does one person infect) the more times you repeat your experiment, the closer you will get to the real probability (or true R0).

Sorry, I should have been clearer - the gradient is important for comparing growth, but once the line begins to level off, the height at which it does that obviously IS important.

With regards to general annual flu jabs - it is interesting to note, that only 60% of healthcare workers take up the annual flu jab. I wonder whether that will change going forward - I suspect it will !

As far as the correct point to align graphs, my own take would be, the later the better.

Inspired by your comment I tried aligning the data at 10, 50 and 100 deaths, comparing the UK and Italy. 10 is definitely the odd one out, so probably not the best one to use, which supports your hypothesis.

Both China and Singapore are reporting new cases albeit at low levels.
China 108
Singapore 233
Singapore has a bigger problem as the virus is spreading in the migrant worker dormitories.

I was just comparing the data for Speain and Italy - it seems Spain are having a much faster result from their lockdown. Is it significantly different to Italy's version, does anyone know?

Can someone answer why statistical tracking is compared to Italy and Spain, as worse case, and South Korea for best case, but very little analysis is comparing like with like of Northern European countries for example Belgium and the Netherlands, who seem to have a very similar trajectory to us. Belgium introduced measures before we did, but seem to have a similar outcome, the Netherlands have pretty much been in line with us all the way along. Switzerland is another country with excellent healthcare, response etc etc, but poor outcome.

I suppose all will come out in the wash in the final analyses, but for some countries, France, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, outcomes have seemed similar regardless of lockdown timings, or healthcare systems.

I meant to add, in my musings, are we going to find that regardless of how each country has handled the crises, the outcomes are down to more than just that, and will be more dependent on demographics, cultural mix, genetics, general health of the nations, average age, urbanisation, etc etc.

I agree @Baaaahhhhh and also things such as air pollution (if you look places that have bad air pollution are Northern Italy, Madrid, London, Birmingham, New York etc), population density and one suspects obesity levels as well will all play a part. As will testing

I dont think how and when you lockdown will be more than one factor

I think the comparision with Spain and Germany is both that they have been widely hit - and hit slightly earlier, so we can see where we might/might not be going, but also they are similar sizes to us.

Belgium has a worse cases and deaths per million than Italy, but I think because it has such a comparatively small population people who only look at the "headline figures" will misinterpret a comparison with them. I mean, they "only" have had 3000 odd deaths altogether. The fact that their population is only 11 million which makes that far more significant than our numbers isn't immediately obvious. Which is why I think they are generally not focusing too much on smaller nations when comparing figures with the UK.

Not Germany - I meant Italy.

Afaik, Oak, Italy and Spain's lockdown is almost identical, and so has been the undoubted regional aspect of the spread.
I think Spain was just a couple of days behind (remembering talking to Spanish colleagues in that week)

Baaaahhhhh I think it will be a combo of both for every country, and the more space you have per resident and the less built up your cities (and what kind of transport system you have and how many use it) will be a massive part of it.

Re: comparison to Italy/France/Spain - I suspect that’s a bit like why we all learned French in school in 80s/90s and now have the option of Spanish - they are countries that are geographically close and ones Brits are likely to be familiar with as popular holiday resorts.

Belgium, Norway, Netherlands (apart from Amsterdam) are all less familiar to us as a nation, so it’s more a popular culture thing than a scientific thing?

Similar to how we look to the US on all kinds of topics, despite having very little in common demographically/geographically/culturally with them - we just feel we are like them due to common language and familiarity with each other’s TV/cinema.

Perhaps as the science shows we are more similar in trajectory to the Northern European countries, the tabloid coverage will follow on?

@GlassOfProsecco

By having a zero tolerance approach to CV, adopting extreme measures despite having relatively very low levels of infection, NZ will either need to continue its lockdown for 18 months (far later than the UK) or literally quarantine the entire country from the outside world, which could be entirely impractical without massive economic loss which will impact adversely in health in other ways. I’d judge NZ’s approach in 18 months rather than now.

Yes, Spain locked down on 14 March, which was I think about a week after Italy. Spain's lockdown was slightly different I think to Italy's in that exercise was never allowed at any point. I think perhaps it was in italy at the very beginning?Although maybe I'm mistaken.

Death toll today 517 in Spain according to El País, which is good news (although still 517 too many).

That's useful graphs of Scotland, GlassofProsecco

imo, the PHE dashboard - since I don't see a UK one - should have an overlay of graphs of the 4 UK nations, at least for total deaths
and also of the UK regions overlaid

If they do have such graphs, buried somewhere, I can't find it - anyone ?

Frustrating that we can compare to different European countries, but not within the regions & nations making up the UK overall curves
It would help understand the UK peak, since different regions have different levels, gradients and somewhat different timing

The Italian lockdown(s) were a bit of an organisational mess;
the government in a muddle and scared to impose restrictions - iirc they'd no other countries within Europe to look at first, to know if lockdown would be tolerated by the public

The first restrictions were locally in Lombardy in late February iirc, then added to on 9-11 March and 21 March

What helped spread the infection was many people rushing south to their 2nd homes, ahead of lockdown

Italy showed us some things to avoid
Those countries that paid attention learned from Italy's mistakes

My recollection of Spain's lockdown is that the organisation wasn't so chaotic
but pp in Spain may correct me there !

That's true BCF.
The govt in Lombardia were begging the central govt for days/weeks to do something but feeling is the regionalised govts were left to their own devices initially.
And yes, in the south we are still finding almost every case known had some contact with someone who came down here on the 7th. (There is also widespread belief that the Lombardia regional govt leaked the impending lockdown news to the press to encourage those people to move out, but don't know the veracity of that)
The national lockdown has been tweaked 4 times since the 9th. Initially you were allowed to exercise.

That probably explains it, then.

And makes it seem more likely our graph is more likely to follow Italy than Spain, since we had people driving all over and still all out and about exercising etc.

It is such a difficult balancing act, though, particularly since you don't know how effective your actions are until a month later...

Yep, a bit like trying to steer a car via a rear camera looking 200 yards behind