Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I’ve just seen via the mirror that today’s UK deaths are 697

The metro are reporting the same, today was always going to be low.

According to sky news, 667 deaths. However ‘only’ 118 of those were on the 12th. The rest died on 1-11 April

Sorry, to add that is England, not UK

I wonder how many people are actually dying a day then if you consider that the daily total is a cumulative number of deaths during previous days?

I wonder how many people are actually dying a day then if you consider that the daily total is a cumulative number of deaths during previous days?

Is there an accurate chart showing the daily deaths-even if done retrospectively?

Flora - if you compare with the NHS numbers, then a considerable number more. Particularly at weekends (and probably today too, as a bank holiday).

@Bifflepants thank you for your input re NZ. That's really interesting. I just wanted to mention that you said your lockdown was very similar to her UK. However by the sound of it there are actually some quite large differences:

In the UK anyone who genuinely can't work from home is allowed to continue working. The exception is workers employed in places forced to close e.g. some shops, pubs etc. I'm not saying this is right, but it is what is happening. I've done a rough calculation and I'd say that 60% of the residents of my street are going out to work but are not key workers.

Another direct example is my industry. I'm a dog walker. We are allowed to work a usual. I usually enter at least 20 homes a day, drive dogs to have a great adventure in groups of four or five, and then take them home. For me this felt too risky- both to my customers and to me so I've stopped working despite not being eligible for any help. But most of my fellow dog walkers have continued as normal. This is allowed, but IMO a bad call.

Any food retailers are allowed to be open whereas you said it's only supermarkets in NZ. In fact the concept of food retail has been stretched pretty far and the likes of Wilko and The Range are open and packed out according to my SIL.

Again I don't want to say which is right or wrong but I wanted to point this out- in the interests of a fair comparison.

@MrsRaab sorry if it's an obvious question but why was today always going to have a low death rate?

@peoplepleaser1 because it's a bank holiday in some parts of the UK. Likewise Sunday's reported numbers are always low.

Ah I see, so Sunday and a BH affects recording and reporting. That's interesting. Thank you.

Wednesday / Thursday might have a big jump, as some deaths not collated over the 4-day Easter period,
so don't worry if there's a sudden blip then

Thank you.

I've decided to take a good look over this and the preceding threads as it's so hard to see the wood for the trees when listening to and reading the media. So many opinions, so much misinterpretation of data and so many opinions represented as fact.

I'm new to all this but I'm of the opinion that infection rate is a more important number than deaths? That's not to say that each death isn't tragic, but the time lag between infection and death makes it so difficult to draw conclusions? I guess though, that due to lack of testing the infection rate in the UK is impossible to establish.

Appuskidu this is something I would like to see too!

Oakmaiden I'm sorry what do you mean by compare with NHS numbers?

Numbers are out for today
As expected the weekend dip has extended to today

Appuskidu this is something I would like to see too!

Barrackers Volcano chart?

Today IS the weekend. Monday's release is only up to Sunday's reports.

Tomorrow will still be the weekend (bank holiday Monday death reports)

Sorry, Flora. I forget that not everyone is as obsessed with the data as I am!

Basically, England release 3 sets of figures. The first is released by Public Health England, and then combined to form a UK total by the DHSC. This is the figure that is released at (allegedly) 2pm every day and is quoted in newspapers.

NHS England also compile figures on a daily basis in these documents: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ The main difference here is that the deaths are allocated to the date they occurred rather than the date they were reported. You will see that the early dates have much higher figures than those released "officially" as more are added to them as they come in. The last 14 days are constantly being updated, and the totals on these days will certainly go up.

The third set of figures are released by the ONS every Tuesday, and are a record of how many deaths have been registered in a given week. These always run at least 2 weeks behind, and again are subject to updating for several weeks after release. It is probably that none of the data so far released here regarding Covid deaths is complete.

What is Barracker’s volcano?

@Barracker is the best to answer that, but basically it’s a brilliant graph showing us real death rates by the day they actually occurred!

Shoots
Yes you are right for deaths. We may not get the true picture until Wed or Thurs.

Ok! How can I see that?

Surely another difference in the UK is keeping schools open for key workers (and a lot of confuson over who qualified at first)? I don't know about Italy, but no schools have been open at any point for anyone. That alone reduces the amount of people out and about even further.

Here is a comparison of the most recent number of deaths in England as announced officially and as occurring by day. Unfortunately I don't have a source for the announced England figures before 27th March, which isn't very helpful. You can see that the first figures show many more deaths per day than announced on that day, but that changes over the past 2 weeks. This is probably because most of the deaths in the past fortnight haven't yet been reported, rather than because there have been fewer deaths.

I meant to say above - the ONS data also includes deaths outside hospitals.

@Oakmaiden so does that mean the figures for care homes from the ons gets added in to the uk figures? If so when? Is very unclear for me but i am trying to get to grip with it. Thanks for your explanations on the data, it really helps but this eludes me.