Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

BigChoc, Irish figures are about 50% for residents of care homes too, but in these cases some have been transferred to hospital and all are included in the daily announced numbers.

www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/coronavirus-ireland-latest-updates-over-150-of-irelands-covid-19-deaths-have-been-in-nursing-homes-or-residential-centres-39118491.html

ShootsFruit, can I ask you - does everyone in the UK have flu vaccinations? I'm surprised by the accepted high incidence of flu deaths, I though the yearly vaccinations had reduced it a lot - I'm aware of the different strains, but I thought flu was less lethal than it was 10 or so years ago.

No, some people are eligible to receive a flu jab on the NHS if they have conditions which make it more likely to be a big problem. Everyone else can pay to have one (boots etc do them for about £12), but this past winter there was a shortage and you had to justify why you needed one in our local one; I don't know if that was national or not though.

Ah, that's interesting Tattie. I've seen it referenced that this year is a bad flu year, maybe shortage of vaccine is why. Though I suppose most of the elderly (especially care home residents) would be eligible.

Yes, off hand I believe it is over 65s, certain medical conditions, and if you are a carer (so you being poorly would be detrimental to the welfare of someone else), and when pregnant. I am not sure of the uptake from those groups though, I know a lot of people in my neonatal class didn't have one because they thought it was pointless (), I did. I paid to have mine done last year as I am often alone with DS and was worried about being poorly, had to keep checking in every day for weeks as the pharmacist said they had never had so many requests and so few vaccines from people not eligible for an NHS one.

I didn't have to justify my private flu jab tattiebee but had it postponed once, I'm in the south east. Dp is entitled to a free one but I'm not. Work pay for mine but would get it done anyway for the sake of around a tenner. It does amaze me though that a large number of my colleagues don't and although I think they would say they are overwhelming pro vaccine (work in science), some are very skeptical of the flu jab and it's benefits. I think the press around it being only x%effective doesn't help and that some years they "chose the wrong strains". My position has always been even if another strain is provalant in a given year the flu vaccine still offers protection against the strains it contains and therefore is worth a sore arm and less than the cost of a pub meal to me.

Shoots I think we are talking at cross purposes

I am only comparing the official death rate of COVID here vs the official death rate of flu
The COVID figure is currently over 20 x the flu figure

In Germany, which is the system I know, each is calculated by the number of deaths divided by the number of cases,
disregarding any unknown number in the community who don't know they have the disease.

Our RKI (German public health authority) states that any death "with" COVID is counted as "from" COVID

e.g. in a TV program of deaths recently in our region, this included 3 people from care home counted as COVID deaths:
aged 82, 88 and 104, all with multiple comorbidities

So I agree the COVID death rate may be inflated here, but I think we are also missing some care home deaths and deaths at home

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/uk-could-have-europes-worst-coronavirus-death-rate-says-pandemic-expert

Prof Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a pandemics expert on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage),
said the figures of almost 1,000 daily hospital deaths showed the UK was in a similar situation to other European countries that had been badly affected.

....
Farrar told BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show:
“Numbers in the UK have continued to go up.
I do hope that we are coming close to the numbers reducing.

But yes, the UK is likely to be certainly one of the worst, if not the worst affected country in Europe.”

Deaths as a proportion of total identified positive tests isn't probably very relevant as it does depend on country/method of test etc, but as BigChoc says deaths as a proportion of people who actually have become infected is very important.

It will be the major issue looking back - it's only when we know how deadly Covid is that we will be able to have a long term (over years) policy for dealing with it. At the moment it looks significantly more fatal than flu; therefore it's going to need a very pro-active method of dealing with it in future. Unless it magically dies out of course.

Some other very interesting discussions going on here on Reddit too. This animation shows just how different covid 19 is playing out compared to other epidemics.

www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fxoxti/coronavirus_deaths_vs_other_epidemics_from_day_of/

The Global Health Security Index of the countries best prepared for an epidemic or pandemic
Listed on the World Economic Forum site

The UK was rated #2 in the world, behind only the USA
Much wine must have been consumed at Davos to get that index so wrong

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/these-are-the-countries-best-prepared-for-health-emergencies/

@BigChocFrenzy

Preparation is good, but will only get you so far.

You need to be able to adapt your plans to the reality of the particular situation you’re in, and you need effective leadership to ensure preparation is applied to good effect. Have excellent plans on paper really doesn’t mean that much.

I'm assuming everyone is a lay person with an interest in facts and figures.

Yes that's my assumption too. I think anyone who had more knowledge would declare it.

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT stats geek)

NEW: Sun 12 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths:

• US & UK still trending up, Italy the only other to slope up at same stage

• Success stories in dark blue:
Australia, Norway, Austria locked down early => gentle slopes

cumulative deaths:
• US death toll now the highest worldwide, approaching 22,000 and still rising fast

• UK curve still matching Italy’s, but death toll could end up higher

• Australia still looking promising

daily new cases:
• Signs still point toward new infections in the US peaking

• New cases falling in four countries that acted early:
New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Australia ✭

Useful article:
Coronavirus statistics: what can we trust and what should we ignore?

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/coronavirus-statistics-what-can-we-trust-and-what-should-we-ignore?

Thread on issues with worldometers data:

"Why do people – including journalists – rely on worldometers.info for data on the pandemic?

It has big errors. It has been like this for weeks. And it's not getting better."
mobile.twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1248585604809490432

I'm only looking at Worldometer for "deaths each day as announced by the relevant government". I'm under no illusion that the reality will be vastly different in many countries. It is, however, an easy way to compare announced deaths per million population, and to watch for a flattening of the curve of announced deaths, both of which give a simplified view of what is happening across many countries.

Personally I'm watching Barracker's volcano, and when the non-hospital death figures are released a combination of those and the volcano will be pretty accurate.

I presume that official calculations are based on raw data not on Worldometer, as surely professionals have better sources than we do.

Accurate for deaths that is; I don't think accurate figures for tests or for cases outside hospital will ever be known.

We'll only have an indication of this when some countries get second peaks and others don't.

Catherine I've no idea why I read 328m as 128m when I googled 🤦‍♀️ I only looked out of interest. Whoops

Does anyone have any comparison data for the 4 UK countries?

I suspect that London is skewing the results for the rest of the UK.

Where I live (Scotland) seems to be on an entirely different trajectory.

I've been keeping an eye on the data where I work & it would seem that deaths are doubling every 7 days, which (whilst still tragic) is much lower.

.

I would expect scotland to be lower- smaller population probably some arras more rural. Fewer airports. I think you can ski there maybe fewer school trips?
Even something like going to local school rather than choosing could make a difference.

Re journalists about early oxygen maybe Jeremy Vine?
I think the oxygen is what the nightingales are about.

Hello from NZ. There have been a few questions raised along the thread about how it is being handled here, so I thought I would describe it briefly.

We started social distancing practices before the first case was identified. Then the border controls tightened and soon after the border was closed to all but returning Kiwis. People returning had to guarantee they would self isolate for 14 days. More recently (from last week) they are put in to quarantine in hotel rooms. We locked down at around 100 cases and before any deaths. There were 2 days warning and then it was a very strict lockdown, no schools open, all businesses closed, no take aways, only key workers allowed to work, no travel etc - basically similar to UK now but no stages to it, just straight to full lock down. Only supermarkets open, no bakers, butchers etc, no hardware stores, nothing.

Very clear messages were given from the start. It was explained well, and compliance and support for lockdown has been very high. Each day there is a briefing at 1pm from Jacinda and the chief medical officer where all new cases, deaths and recoveries are described, in detail, including new clusters of cases, how they came to be, and information about where every single person who has it caught it from. All deaths are reported on the same day; there have been 5 so far. The level of information is excellent, but I suppose it's much easier with a small population and much smaller numbers. I think people are admitted to hospital with fewer symptoms as a precaution. New cases have been falling for a week now, and today was 19.

I don't think it's the weather / season that is keeping numbers low (currently mostly warm and dry in upper North Island, much more variable in South Island), but the early action, severe lock down, high levels of testing and contact tracing, and general compliance. I don't know how it will pan out in the future, or whether the goal of total elimination can be achieved. A recent survey found 60% of population ok with longer lockdown if needed, and another 28% unsure.

Big thank you to everyone discussing normalising per population ( sorry if I've not got the term quite right) .

I've got a much better understanding of that now .It had been bugging me for ages .

Thanks @Bifflepants - I've watched how this has been handled in NZ & am in awe. Decisive, early action has saved lives & kept numbers low.

I think we locked down too late here, due to the ridiculous "herd immunity" strategy. Because of this, lockdown & disruption will go on for longer.

Once this is all over, our UK government should be held accountable for their delayed decision, lack of PPE etc.