Lockdown will end sooner than later

[Mumlove5]

Let’s hope the government will listen to the economists. A balance needs to be created.

I honestly do not think Boris will stand for a longterm lockdown. He wants to get back to normality ASAP.

Plus, infection rates are slowing in Europe🙏🏻

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/05/behind-scenes-boris-johnsons-gang-becoming-riven-infighting/

“It’s a false argument that we are either going to save lives or save the economy,” said Sir Iain, a former Work and Pensions Secretary. “We are talking about saving lives right now versus saving lives in the future because people have got jobs to go back to, and a strong economy that can raise enough taxes to pay for the NHS.”

Yet when does the crossover point come when the Government has to start prioritising the economy above all else? “I’d say we have until the end of this month,” added Mr Duncan Smith. “We have a chance of saving the economy if we are out of this in three weeks but much longer and businesses won’t be able to be resurrected and charities will go under. And then we will see real suffering. We get this done, we flatten the curve and we get back to normal.”

What are different governments doing around the world?

What are more economy-focused governments doing?

Hopefully we will have enough antibody testing available so that people know when it is safe for them to return to work.

I wish the lockdown would end soon, but I don't think it will. I think there are fewer people at risk of suicide and serious mental health collapse than are at risk of death from CV.

I also think people are tougher and more resilient than they realise and will come through this. It's miserable being on lock down, it's miserable being in a recession but most of us have the capacity to survive it. You have to dig deep, but it will be ok

I can't quite envisage how our lockdown will be 'reduced'. For example, for schools to re-open, there are other services that have to be up and running- food suppliers, kitchen staff, dinner ladies, cleaning and hygiene suppliers, cleaning staff, travel methods, children's services, teaching staff, relevant council staff like lollipop people, SEN support services, repair services. How will they deal with social distancing in relation to schools?How will they gradually bring things back online - am presuming it won't just be 'ok back to normal from Monday'.Will it be small shops first, locally? Will we still have to maintain the social distancing measures?Will places we go in largeish numbers in close proximity remain closed- football stadiums, city and large town centres and out of town shopping centres? Theatres, concerts, sports centres, gyms, pubs?I am just struggling to find a method of how it will happen.Will it be some areas but not others?

Loads of good points there.

The other thing is the vulnerable people. If they still need to be shielded, how will that affect things? Many schools were on the verge of closing anyway before the gov closed them all due to the sheer number that were vulnerable/had pre existing health conditions. To be able to safely staff schools, those people need to be told they’re fine and are fine to return. The gov need to be reasonably sure they are not sending them straight to their deaths when they lift this.

Rhianna I don't think it can be that straightforward. For businesses simply to open and close at the order of the government isn't very manageable for them at all. It's not just a case of switching n the lights and opening the doors. And all the services behind that will need to be re-established.

Lulu jakey, sadly it is not about businesses finding it a manageable process, it’s about helping the NHS coping and flattening the curve.

I also think people are tougher and more resilient than they realise and will come through this. It's miserable being on lock down, it's miserable being in a recession but most of us have the capacity to survive it.

I think these are very wise words.

Zilla1 to be fair we are not doing to bad re ppe although today I believe they’ve run out of one particular mask so a few are having to be re-fit tested.
Funnily enough a shed load of masks (not sure which )came via the army end of last week, rumour was that the expiry date was a couple of years ago but apparently they’ve been checked and are ok

@walkaround. I don't think anyone would say that we shouldn't have had this lockdown or that we shouldn't continue for a few more weeks after April 14. But the purpose was to buy time. The NHS (with help!) has moved much more efficiently than Neil F's model predicted. It now doesn't seem to be over capacity as far as covid-19 patients are concerned. Even in London, where the Nightingale hospital has barely started to be used. What I was trying to address was the question about how long this situation should last. The risk with a longer term lockdown is that because covid-19 is very infectious hospitals become unsafe places and other treatments are suspended or delayed. Then you end up effectively privileging patients with the illness we're all talking about all the time over patients with other less conspicuous but equally serious (and maybe more treatable) health problems.

Things like tumours that are fast growing and require being examined, scanned etc AND which also have much more effective medical treatments in most cases than this virus seem a particular problem. Is it right to delay diagnosing early stage breast cancer in a young woman that you have a 90% chance of curing (now), to put a much older person on a ventilator when the survival rate is under 50%? I don't think there are simple answers to these questions. The Imperial report made clear that they're very important but they're not for epidemiologists to solve. They are bigger social and moral questions and need careful debate. I was trying to say that they don't revolve around a false binary opposition between the economy and human life.

Kisstheteapot14 wow! Just wow! What are you expecting us to do then? Leave all the drug addicts, alcoholics, homeless, suicidal and victims of domestic violnec to die?
I'm sorry but I've worked with some of these people for several years. It's very frustrating and sad what's happening to them. It feels like we have abandoned them. A lot will relapse at best. Many many will die. We've even been told to expect deaths. It's heartbreaking.

People are resilient enough not to expect everything to be ‘safe’
Sick to death of endlessly hearing this endless mantra of ‘safe’ -nothing can ever be ‘safe’ it is always a balance of risk and god help us if we are forced into a beige world of ‘safe’🙁

Caucasian, genuinely glad (not trying to be sarcastic) that you've generally had PPE and changed kit is being re-fit tested. We got a small batch of stickered PPE 4? [time flies so would need to check] weeks ago and was told 'it's been checked' when we pushed back. Was sceptical myself and will want to see evidence of a more substantive test or reference to the manufacturer when this is over as (being paranoid) I could imagine someone being told to stick a sticker over the expired date and send it out to reassure the troops.

Grapevine says one more for ITU.

Zilla1 you mean the BBC news report that Boris Johnson is in intensive care?

How long did it take for an approved vaccine for flu?

Grapevine not a lock quicker than sky news

Hoffi, No but have seen sky news as well now.

It’s just popped up on my phone too

Definitely in intensive care. It's on all the news

Definitely in intensive care. It's on all the news

sky news 'close to a ventilator', presume NIV rather than physical proximity.

Probably 6/6 face mask and nc ? Or just to be on the safe side with art line and monitoring ....

I'm trying to work out the timings for a phased lockdown to avoid a horrendous peak during winter 2020. We're on a lockdown until June then released for the summer. So during the summer people will be out picking up & spreading the infection. This means by mid Oct the infection rates should be peaking again & another lockdown will be due. So we have another lockdown over the winter to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed by the flu & COVID-19.

Also, Britain is due to leave the EU officially at the end of this year so we'll experience how the food supply chains cope with this. When we are released in June and the shops are better stocked, it would be wise to prepare for another lockdown. I don't think this is a one off, the virus will retreat during the summer heat & return again in the winter. It might mutate again which means any vaccine they produce might not be so effective.

I think we'll have to return to normal sometime, whether or not a vaccine is available. The problem is we've been spoilt in terms of healthcare and I don't mean to belittle those who have had cancer or serious non-infectious illness. But we've had vaccines for lots of illnesses and since the 1970s we haven't really had to worry about illness - meningitis has probably been one of the most worrying things, and more recently tick borne encephalitis and Lymes Disease.

But people lived before vaccines and they got on with things and lived with the risk, and I fear we will have to do the same. You can't just say everyone has to stay at home until there is a reliable vaccine.

The problem is we've been spoilt in terms of healthcare

in the UK? No, we really haven't. The fact that we put up with such a crumbling NHS for so long is exactly why we are on near lockdown now.

Just compare the situation with Germany.

I know Germany is on lockdown too, but check their numbers and facilities.