Lockdown will end sooner than later

[Mumlove5]

Let’s hope the government will listen to the economists. A balance needs to be created.

I honestly do not think Boris will stand for a longterm lockdown. He wants to get back to normality ASAP.

Plus, infection rates are slowing in Europe🙏🏻

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/05/behind-scenes-boris-johnsons-gang-becoming-riven-infighting/

“It’s a false argument that we are either going to save lives or save the economy,” said Sir Iain, a former Work and Pensions Secretary. “We are talking about saving lives right now versus saving lives in the future because people have got jobs to go back to, and a strong economy that can raise enough taxes to pay for the NHS.”

Yet when does the crossover point come when the Government has to start prioritising the economy above all else? “I’d say we have until the end of this month,” added Mr Duncan Smith. “We have a chance of saving the economy if we are out of this in three weeks but much longer and businesses won’t be able to be resurrected and charities will go under. And then we will see real suffering. We get this done, we flatten the curve and we get back to normal.”

Having worked with small businesses for over 10 years, I am very confident that there are a multitude of entrepreneurs out there who will jump into any gaps the changing economy reveals. Will it be a bloody mess in the meantime? Yes. But it's a pretty messy arena anyway. I think the government is going to extraordinary lengths to preserve as much of the economy as they can.

I strongly believe that saving as many lives as we can in the short term is the right strategy. This thing isn't going to last forever. The UK is made up of a bunch of extraordinary people who are supremely inventive. As are humans everywhere. We will come through this. We will survive.

I think people aren’t understanding that the national lockdown is not being done by this Government so that the whole country can join in the noble project of protecting the elderly and vulnerable, and isn’t to protect the young and healthy, it’s to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, as the NHS functioning is necessary for the country to remain stable and continue to function. In other words, the lockdown is not being done devoid of economic calculation in the first place.

I was going for June, only because that's when the 12 weeks is up for the people who are shielding. I'm hoping then as (selfishly!) I want to go back to work at the same time as my colleagues and not weeks after

@MamaBearOnLockdown yes your right but tbf that was before the government said key workers can send their dc to school otherwise it wouldn't work. The government paying 80% of wages too for people otherwise I and many wouldn't have a job now . I couldn't afford to not earn a living so we'd be out working now , the government didn't really have a choice if they wanted a lockdown.

I think this will be on until Sept.

Even then I am worried. DS goes to school, gets the virus, brings it home to both parents who have underlying conditions?

It seems so unacceptably risky.

I know there are is a lot in the balance but we have to be prepared for lock down to continue for some time, with some waves of 'relaxation'. I think otherwise we are raising unrealistic expectations. So yes YABU.

Yes - people locked down with abusive family/'partner' but also less road traffic deaths (for example).

Not to be heartless, there is always a flip side - lots of people won't die from various activities due to lock down.

The rate of admissions on our unit is unprecendented, never seen anything like it in 20 odd years to the extent that our trust has provided a drop in service to provide psychological help for nursing, medical and ancillary staff
traumatised by the whole situation.
Poster earlier on commented that people were dying with corona virus rather than because of it and that they 'were going to die anyway.' ..sorry but tell that to the relatives of patients in their 30s and 40s who are stricken with it, many have mild asthma as their underlying health issue so not on deaths door, quite a few have no issues at all.
And exactly who will be staffing these huge temporary hospitals... We can't staff beds to the right ratio on our own unit at times Heard on the grapevine that agencies are offering lengthy contracts to those prepared to work in them but not sure how successfully...

@Puzzledobserver I saw that film of the doctor in Wales and it is truly sobering. Not all old, not all with underlying. It is not what we thought it would look like. It's a fair warning to us all not to 'nip out' for an ice cream. We can't think too far ahead, it is what it is now. There is no perfect answer.

There are no easy answers.
Yes, we need to give the NHS breathing space, but the virus will not go away. It will change, and we will change.

Perhaps the most vulnerable will shield until a vaccine is available - however the chances of us all being on lockdown until then is slim to none.

I honestly think a lot of people are enjoying the crisis and the platform it provides. I wonder how emphatically they felt about these issues beforehand (because a virus isn't exactly new news...it's because it's affecting us gasp).

'Unprecedented' is another word for 'making it up as we go along'. The vast majority of us will be fine if we get the virus. And we SHOULD get the virus. Whether its in 3 weeks or 3 years . Those are the facts. There will be exceptions. But then again, you could get hit by a car tomorrow.

As much as certain people want disaster and to fuel the vitriolic standpoint, life will go on. And it won't be indoors. We SHOULD question when our businesses will be allowed to open, our children can go back to school, life saving treatment and mental health services can resume. We should be able to discuss this without the inevitable 'ARE YOU WILLING TO SACRIFICE YOURSELF/YOUR MOTHER/YOUR SON' - that's not logic or reason and is not helping anyone.

When they closed schools and cancelled exams they did this because they said school closures only work over a long period of c.12+ weeks. I don't see them shifting on that. However, I think they could allow garden centres and other shops that are willing to implement social distancing to open before that.

SouthsideOwl I think your understanding of the word unprecedented is a bit off ....

Where is the money coming from to run all of this indefinitely.

There will be nothing open pubs restaurants or non essential shops till September. Aboustly no way is this ending sooner than that

You say that with such certainty! What's your basis for the claim?

And again the obsession here with September. I can see it for schools, but it would seem a strange month to release restrictions in general, seeing as it would be coming into the cold weather when flu-type viruses generally increase. And how do you think the government and society can cope with shutting down almost the entire economy for 5 months?

I think June. I think in asking people to shield for 12 weeks the government were trying to hint how long things would change/measures would be in place for everyone else too.

Caucasian, I don't know about lengthy contracts but the agents have been in touch here asking what rates medics and nurses want (a cute agent way of seeing how little someone would work for) to work in the Nightingale units. One of the benefits of working there that is tempting some is the promise of adequate PPE so might be safer for the HCP and reduced risk of bringing infections back to the family than working in the community or acute. Possibly more willing to believe the army than the government and NHS leadership, not that the army hasn't been thrown under a bus in the past.

We're seeing significant increased numbers of deaths in the community. Without testing in the community, these aren't generally figuring in the national stats, in England at least - the press seem to be picking up on this under-reporting and systemic issue now.

Still no testing for HCPs either.

Still no/wrong/expired PPE. Still seeing more previously-healthy, under-60 HCPs ventilated and dying.

IcedPurple

If they reopened now do you think everyone would just return to busy places even though it's not safe but because they enjoy it and it helps the economy?

If they reopened now do you think everyone would just return to busy places even though it's not safe but because they enjoy it and it helps the economy?

You're going to have to remind me where I said anything about anywhere reopening now.

Ivwas not being argumentative. Whenever they re open it won't be safe. That's what I meant.

Everyone is suffering to some extent and there will of course be deaths linked or the economic and social issues relating to lockdown (as Chris Whitty said tonight). How are the government meant to choose? Do they prioritise those that will die from mental health issues over Coronavirus 9or vice versa? Surely they will be having to make the impossible decision on balancing up which will have a larger impact. The fact is that people will get over this and the economy will rebuild over time (granted it will be looong time) but you can’t undo death. If the government said never mind let’s stop lockdown and thousands of people died they would be criticised for allowing people to die. They are damned either way tbh

Sorry about spelling.

I just think they have to re open for the economy but I will find it scary when I know the virus is still out there.

I meant do you think people will use the bars etc?

I don't think this will go on as long as I did 10 days ago. Our numbers are falling but so were Italy's and France's and theirs has shot up again today. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be interesting trends for is because we'll see more of the figures from this weekend included in those figures.
I can't quite envisage how our lockdown will be 'reduced'. For example, for schools to re-open, there are other services that have to be up and running- food suppliers, kitchen staff, dinner ladies, cleaning and hygiene suppliers, cleaning staff, travel methods, children's services, teaching staff, relevant council staff like lollipop people, SEN support services, repair services. How will they deal with social distancing in relation to schools?

How will they gradually bring things back online - am presuming it won't just be 'ok back to normal from Monday'.Will it be small shops first, locally? Will we still have to maintain the social distancing measures?
Will places we go in largeish numbers in close proximity remain closed- football stadiums, city and large town centres and out of town shopping centres? Theatres, concerts, sports centres, gyms, pubs?
I am just struggling to find a method of how it will happen.
Will it be some areas but not others?
What if numbers increase? Will they suddenly put all the measures back in place?

IcedPurple

Keep your wig on.

I also wonder if all of this lockdown has been a way not of reducng deaths but of preventing social unrest, chaos and anarchy- which is what could have happened if they had gone down the 'herd immunity' route and let the NHS become totally overwhelmed and so many become ill that our daily structures collapsed and people panicked.

They will open very slowly whilst monitoring infection rates, then shut again when nhs starts to get overwhelmed. Repeat repeat repeat until vaccine is available. Unless of course you would rather have herd immunity that people went ballistic about.
The whole world is in a recession, not just our economy.
Pray for a vaccine and stay home.