Lockdown will end sooner than later

[Mumlove5]

Let’s hope the government will listen to the economists. A balance needs to be created.

I honestly do not think Boris will stand for a longterm lockdown. He wants to get back to normality ASAP.

Plus, infection rates are slowing in Europe🙏🏻

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/05/behind-scenes-boris-johnsons-gang-becoming-riven-infighting/

“It’s a false argument that we are either going to save lives or save the economy,” said Sir Iain, a former Work and Pensions Secretary. “We are talking about saving lives right now versus saving lives in the future because people have got jobs to go back to, and a strong economy that can raise enough taxes to pay for the NHS.”

Yet when does the crossover point come when the Government has to start prioritising the economy above all else? “I’d say we have until the end of this month,” added Mr Duncan Smith. “We have a chance of saving the economy if we are out of this in three weeks but much longer and businesses won’t be able to be resurrected and charities will go under. And then we will see real suffering. We get this done, we flatten the curve and we get back to normal.”

Unfortunately the majority of mumsnet are absolutely loving all of this and would prefer it if the government nailed our front doors shut

That's just taking the piss out of people who are scared and want their family and friends to be safe.

I totally understand about the economy.

However there are people who are sulking because they can't get pissed at the bank holiday with their mates or their holiday abroad's been ruined.

The fact is, everyone knows and agrees that the current lockdown must end as soon as genuinely possible. Iain Duncan Smith thinks this should be within the next 3 weeks. He is neither an economist, nor a mathematician, nor a scientist, nor does he have any experience of working in hospitals or care homes, so he can bugger right off with his opinions so far as I am concerned. I’m not sure, really, why these articles keep popping up as though nobody but these geniuses has thought about the economic harms caused by the virus. Rather than acting like this is some revelation that must be pointed out, anyone who wants to be taken seriously on this front actually needs to detail what they mean by ending lockdown and what level of tolerance they will have to death, rather than perpetually arguing that this covid 19 thing is hardly causing any more deaths than usual, which just comes across either exceptionally dense or conveniently ignoring the fact that normal does not actually require new hospitals to be built.

The only reason we’re seeing a peak I’d be a use of a lockdown.
Without the lockdown, more and more people will be getting infected and dying. The nhs would be completely overwhelmed otherwise and people are likely to die of other ailments because of all the focus on Coronavirus victims
Lockdown is keeping things under control.
I would love things to get back to some kind of normal but unless some restrictions are kept in place and people are encouraged to wear masks responsibly, the numbers will just increase again

But Piglet HE IS A SIR!!!

The report looks at different ways in which a pandemic (as you say spainsh 'flu 1918) was handled. It's one data point but better than the pure assertion that the lock down is economically worse than not locking down which so many PPs trot out.

Spanish 'flu 1918 tended to affect healthy adults more. The economy is different now. The disease is different.

There also wasn't the state-funded 'life-support' for employment and businesses, as imperfect as it is in the UK, that will tend to help a rebound. Tax rates are higher now.

It's not 'obvious' the economics will be apples and pears though they may be.

I'm only surprised Nigel Lawson wasn't canvassed for his expertise to back up IDS. I expect deploying his expertise about climate change will have burnished his genius further.

There's something weird about how the OP posts. It reminds me of a bot or propaganda.

You again op. You’re everywhere atm. Anyway as it stands, dh is due back in work in 3 weeks. I wait for see if this will happen.... social distancing will be interesting - manufacturing industry.

Would you all really send your kids back to school in 3 weeks time if the government said so?
I bloody wouldn't and I would be shocked at those who would that have a choice about this.

Me neither, I'd rather do without the money tbh, dh can pay essential bills, we prefer to be alive rather than having luxuries, but everyone is different. Some can't live without a lot of stuff
Some need two incomes because of their expensive lifestyle choices .

Others need their income just to get by, and can only afford the essentials. My heart goes out to those, I know it can be a hard struggle when this is the case, especially if you have children.

God it's really depressing. Lockdown continuing it seems - not sure the leak is the end of this week, until they know nothing changes.

Peak

But OP, the majority of both epidemiologists AND economists are in favour of lockdown as a method of controlling the spread of the disease -- in addition to extensive community testing and monitoring of hotspots, contact tracing and isolation.

We're also far from alone. There is some slight variation between countries, but by and large all have come to the same conclusion -- which is that coronavirus, left unchecked, actually represents a greater threat to the economy than a lockdown and controlled return to normality.

My prediction is that the lockdown will continue until at least May at the earliest. I then expect it to be lifted temporarily and then we will be locked down again as a second wave of infections begins to peak. I think they plan for us to be locked down over the summer (because, like spring holidays, it's typically a less economically active time with fewer childcare implications) and then return to work and school as normal in September. Whether this will pan out that way is anyone's guess!

I also don't think it is a stark choice between health and the economy. I think we can adapt and evolve, choosing to prioritise social distancing and work remotely or safely to keep the economy going.

Of course, not all industries can do that for example restaurants but they can adapt their business models, for instance moving into grocery delivery as suppliers with a market brand and good social media presence, or into delivering takeaways.

Personally, all of my work can be done remotely and I can be relatively economically active. This is forcing me and my customers to interact in new ways and in fact there is scope for growth rather than going bust.

A lot of people think everyone just wants to go out and get pissed/go to festivals/go on a weeks all inclusive piss up in Benidorm.
I just want to see my mum and dad.

Yanbu.

We need a balance where the cure isn't worse than the disease.

Why do you think lock down ending is the same as all restrictions being lifted. And keep posting it? How can you not know that restrictions will be lifted slowly?

Bluntness, I notice you didn’t c&p the next line of my post, which literally said restrictions would be lifted slowly, and we wouldn’t be back to normal until September. But carry on selectively quoting me if you need straw men to argue with.

I keep posting it, because I was replying to somebody who said restrictions couldn’t possibly be kept in place until September, and somebody else who thought this would all have blown over and kids would all be back in school by early May.

Our predicted peak is end of April. And we had some of the earliest cases in our trust. So nope, I don’t think the rest of the country will be relaxing any restrictions by 1st May. Hospital plan is to keep on our Major Incident plan until end of June, then reassess.

+1 for MN are just loving it atm.... their dream will end when reality bites and

a) a bunch of people will realise the disease is nothing for them to personally fear... guess what? these guys won't care about anyone else, least of all the nhs heroes at that point.. they're only being driven by a false sense of self-preservation atm.

b) a bunch of people will realise they're about to lose their homes and they and their family is facing the prospect of self isolation at the nearest park

October seems to be the month now, worldwide, that it's estimated lockdowns will be in place until, with possibly an even stronger level lockdown to occur between then and now for the UK and US. Those thinking it will be relaxed by May are being quite delusional imo and deeply in denial. Hope for the best all you want, but prepare yourself for it being til October.

China too less than three months to squash this and move out of lockdown

Austria have taken less than three months to squash this and are now moving out of lockdown

In both cases, it's not totally free for all, there will be restrictions because you don't want to let it get out of control again , and we have to avoid importing cases which the countries in a better position than us have already done

However lockdown is ended it’s not going to be without restrictions i.e strict limits on numbers at gatherings, continued 14 day isolations for suspected cases etc.

I really don’t see how they can do any of that without extensive testing in place first. If the aim is to keep the NHS operational they need to have a tight reign on how the numbers continue to stack up, and they will because there’s no other way around it.

Ideally we don’t want to have to be as strictly locked down as we are now so the government needs to accept that we basically need a new, well funded and resourced, community covid speciality with the NHS.

I would love it if the children were to go back to school in May. I know quite a few people who can't work because they have a key worker partner and no childcare. Getting children back to school will be important for the economy.

So we've had July, September and now October! Any advance on October? November? New Year? Easter 2021?

Anyone want to bid for lockdown lasting until 2025?

I hope it can be lifted. I doubt it though. Austria wasn't as badly affected and was affected much earlier wasn't it? The German press does carry a lot of editorials on the cost of a life not lived (i.e. isolation) versus the relatively small risk of death if measures are lifted, but they don't have quite the same pressures on their ICUs.

PineappleDanish I’ve seen September 2021 on another thread.

But OP, the majority of both epidemiologists AND economists are in favour of lockdown as a method of controlling the spread of the disease -- in addition to extensive community testing and monitoring of hotspots, contact tracing and isolation.

As for epidemiologists - fine, but their scope is quite limited - they are focused on limiting the spread of disease. Work, a social life, a cultural life and so on do not figure into their calculations.

As for the economists, I've seen a few of their rationalisations and it seems to rest on the premise that the 'value of life' input should be governed by actuarial tables for insurance and lawsuit payouts rather than standard public sector life-year calculations.

One such study seemed to suggest that one lost life was worth $9 million - frankly, it is not as far as a pandemic is concerned. There is no 'wronged' party - we demand, quite rightly, that where negligence or malfeasance can be proven that the wrongdoers are held to account, but facing risk is not a harm in and of itself.