If the peak is in 9 days...

[SleepingStandingUp]

And we'd have been in lockdown for 3 weeks, does that mean lockdown is likely to end within the next 4-6 weeks? Or sooner? Could the kids be back at school before May half term?

To be fair we've no idea really if higher temps are helping in India for example. There are so many differences in medical care and living conditions that it could be far worse if they had colder weather

we aren't even halfway locked down at the moment as a pp said!!

people rocking up at work today with whole family in tow.....the weekend will yet again make a complete mockery of the situation. people will be out in the sun

lockdown isn't severe enough as it is!

But society and the economy as well as individuals simply can’t sustain having no work and no social interaction. So we will need to take out chances ASAP

Plus the toll on mental hearth land lack of investigations into other illnesses

I might be being dim but surely September is safer for our children than earlier. I know I'm lucky as only have a teenager at home who is happy to stay in. A lot of my friends think it will be September at the earliest.

I know parents are worried their children are missing out on things but this is a very unusual and scary situation. Surely lives are the most important thing right new over anything.

It's not missing friends, it's recognising there's no way this is sustainable until vaccine. It might be sustainable until anti- viral, maybe. Even those who are wfh for now can't all sustain it indefinitely.

"But I accept that schools, universities will not open before September."

Though there might be an argument for schools to go back in summer so that any 'next wave' starts then, rather than waiting until September, when the next flu virus will be expected shortly, and more demands on NHS generally. Especially if it's feasible to do rapid testing and contract tracing by the summer - though I realise that is a very tall order.

Not sure why only half my message was posted.

6 months of lockdown, same outcome but a hammered economy and a second wave in flu season. Versus an earlier relaxing of measures, a second peak in August when we don’t have flu cases to deal with and less of an impact on the economy...

@mascotte those things won't matter when you are dead

Covid 19 is not the only way this situation will kill people in the short or medium term though.

All this speculation about school going back over the summer. Can I ask you all who is going to be teaching them?

Why is September safer? This virus won’t have gone by then... and you’ll have less chance of getting a bed if you need it.

The minute everyone socialises again this will return. June/July/September/October.

We can’t stay locked down until a vaccine..

@LavenderQuartz you’re in a different world

Candodad this is why I think they might let childcare open.

The figures we need to think about is those testing positive in hospital and needing treatment. That is really rising now and the number of younger people with no underlying conditions are rising too. Average time on a respirator 2-3 weeks. Number if respirators not enough even with the new Nightingale hospital ( which gives me the creeps Everytime I see it along with the temporary field morgue in middle of london) . 60,000 people each day at Cheltenham, well it isn't going to be enough is it? Peak in 9 days without complete lockdown and massive testing not on your nelly!

I think what might happen is that we will see some easing of lockdown around June (e.g. some lower-risk businesses reopening, increased access to open spaces), and then something a bit closer to normality in September (schools open, many businesses open, but no large gatherings and retain some rules around social distancing). We won't have a vaccine by then, but hopefully, we will have more hospital beds, better testing and more expertise/treatments.

For those who advocate a 'full lockdown', I'm not convinced this would help much. The most risky activities, such as treating patients in hospitals and caring for carehome residents, would need to continue, and the workers would come home to their families, potentially spreading the virus. Stopping people from going for their daily jog or walk in the open air would have limited effect on the virus spread, but would have a negative impact on people's physical and mental health.

More like September.

I don't think a lot of people would have stuck it if they'd said 12 weeks from the outset. More palatable to be 3 weeks + another + another + another. Then that'll take us up to the summer holidays.

I think that 9 day peak is realistically just the peak of the first wave. Maybe they'll relax it a bit but I very much doubt the schools will be opening again for months.

@Sostenueto different issues - 80% of transmission is in family homes or shared accommodation - Africa and India have much higher rates of muligeneratial housing and shared housing than we do, plus general hygiene poverty, shared community water supplies, lack of information and ability to share accurate information in huge rural communities with very patchy internet access.

@mascotte yes, the real one

harping on about mental health, other illnesses and lack of social interaction?? people are dead and dying, young healthy people.....and you're saying we need to take our chances!!

All wipe out any slowdown due to temprature

Oh yes and in Africa in particular almost no PPE for medical staff

@Sostenueto yes, inclined to agree with you there.

Delatron

I'm not being rude but have you got children? Let's socialise again after 12 weeks but sensibly.

I'm not saying we should all stay in till September.

Well unfortunately in my dgds case she's not even allowed out for exercise and me as I have just finished cancer treatment so some of us ( at least 1 5 million) have to cope with full lockdown now to save our lives.

Until vaccine