If the peak is in 9 days...

[SleepingStandingUp]

And we'd have been in lockdown for 3 weeks, does that mean lockdown is likely to end within the next 4-6 weeks? Or sooner? Could the kids be back at school before May half term?

Don't forget a lot of people have no income at all for various reasons during lockdown. Those people would be wanting to get their businesses up and running again asap.

Yes I have children!

I don’t think every child going back to school together in September is a good idea or necessary safer.

Unless you are prepared to keep your kids off school until there’s a vaccine?

I think the fact they were announcing more temp hospitals today tells you they don't see this as a single peak at Easter but as something longer. Even if these proceed at a similar pace to Nightingale they won't even be open by then. This lockdown is buying time to increase capacity and slow spread so they can balance (ish) demand with capacity but I'm not seeing a plan that isn't still most non vulnerable people catching it.

Gonna take a bet we don't hit peak till April 22nd at the earliest.

statisticallychallenged yes! Now that is feasible!

Our school has sent a letter confirming closure for "at least 12 weeks" (letter sent this week but we've been closed for 2 weeks already)

Not a hope on Hell kids will go back this academic year

But you are hoping that the kids don't go back before Sept whether or not that is safe and better for the vast majority because as you said before you feel only your child will have missed out. My DGD has CF and l know her mother wouldn't allow her go back before she could be as sure as possible she was safe. But never once have l heard her or my DGD hoping that things turn out better for them even if that scenario was not better for the other kids and parents. I am close enough to both of them to know that even if they were thinking it secretly they would tell me, we talk openly about their fears and darkest thoughts if necessary as well as the optimistic ones.

I'm 32 weeks' pregnant and my OH is a ft key worker. I have two very lively boys who will be 10 and 13 by the time baby is here. Clearly I will not be able to have any support from friends and family when baby arrives and I'm absolutely terrified how tough this is going to be. My youngest is already waking at least twice in the night due to anxiety.
But ateotd my childen are my responsibility and it's my duty to reduce their risk of catching Covid-19. That means not attending school until it is safe to do so.

I work in education, we have been told nobody is coming back before the end of June but to start making preparations to delay the start of the next academic year as it may be necessary.

But you are hoping that the kids don't go back before Sept whether or not that is safe and better for the vast majority because as you said before you feel only your child will have missed out.
Please quote the bit where I said this. I said I'll worry for him if they go back before him. Am I only allowed to worry he might die or I might die? If they're going back May and he's going Sept and he's going to be behind them that's something we have to manage and try to ameliorate. That isn't the same as saying I hope all the kids go back in Sept and screw everyone if it means more people die is it?

It's not necessarily a vaccine we are waiting for. It is possible that some treatments are quite promising. That would be a start

We in Italy are at the peak. Except it's not a peak, it's one hell of a plateau. A plateau where round about 800 people die each day, and have done for a week. Let's put it this way, dh's work (an office working for a factory, not an IT office!) have already confirmed wfh until the end of May. I have been in the house with the kids now for a month already. Even when cases are zero things won't return straight back to normal. I would be happy to just go for a walk. But anyway, if I were you I'd get myself mentally prepared for about three months of lockdown. Plan for that, act like it will be that long. Don't hope for less, it is better to accept reality and adapt to it. Think end June.

The 'exit strategy' for all of this is a combination of factors.

A greater capacity for the NHS to deal with the high number of sick people.

The development of a vaccine, which would be prioritised for vulnerable people and key workers first. Potentially then school children, like they are given the seasonal flu vaccine now.

The development of suitable treatments to help reduce the number who are very poorly or dying of this virus.

Yes, the growing 'herd immunity' of people who have had it, probably unknown to them if mild, who have some degree of immunity.

And the development of the antibody test to prove if you've had it and are safe to be out and about.

It's not about whether we are losing money and freedoms, or if the children are missing their friends, education and structure. It's about preventing as many people as possible from dying.

As soon as restrictions are lifted, without several of those points in place, cases will surge up again and we are definitely going to be looking at waves of restrictions being tightened and loosened over the next 2 years. The Spanish flu, for example came in 3 significant waves over 18 months, and in some areas it was the 2nd wave that was the most deadly. We have better living conditions and good levels of medical intervention and antibiotics that they did not have access too, thankfully.

The flu epidemic in the 60s (H3N2) that killed thousands still kills thousands as it's around as our seasonal influenza A. Covid 19 may be around for a very long time to come, we just have no defenses against it at present.

Where have l said you are saying screw everyone else even if more die?
I've qualified what lve said about you not wanting all the kids except yours to go back to school with ' even if it were safe for them to do so and if it were better for them and their parents' it would hardly be better for them or safe if that meant more would die now would it.. .
Here's the quote you asked for where you said only your son would miss out in answer to a pp :
**28SleepingStandingUp

But isn't the point that all our children are missing out.
not if they all go back in May and mine goes back in Sept**
I hope you don't pass on this woe is me attitude. You are not the only person affected by all this and neither will your son be.

I posted the other day to say that a letter from DD's school mentioned that they had been briefed by Downing Street that it is likely October they will go back.

Also, the head of Nursing where I am doing my masters told us yesterday that we need to now stay full time in clinical practice until the end of August, and that there was the possibility of another wave in November (not sure why she mentioned that month specifically, but it would tie in with a late Sept/ Oct re-opening of the schools).

Personally, I don't think it can be guessed just yet, as how long it will continue will depend on when we do actually peak, how long that peak will last and the numbers involved. Also, it's still possible that the virus will mutate/ people will become re-infected.

If I had to guess though, I'd say full lockdown will last till mid June at the very least. I get that there will be wider effects of lockdown eg, MH, the economy, wages , but whilst those things are all a risk, they pale in comparison to the devastating effect an unmanaged pandemic would have on the UK.

also how would going back in Sept rather than May mean more would die, it would be more likely other way round surely!

also how would going back in Sept rather than May mean more would die, it would be more likely other way round surely!

Not necessarily, as it would give the NHS more time to prepare. They also might be hoping that a lot of healthcare staff will have become immune by then, and there is a reliable antibody test, as the current high levels of staff sickness/ isolation is exacerbating the lack of available critical care capacity. No point in having the ventilators/ beds etc if there not enough trained staff to treat people. There would also be more time to train more non- specialised staff in acute care/ ITU skills.

But isn't the point that all our children are missing out.
not if they all go back in May and mine goes back in Sept*

But tjays got stuff all with wanting no kids to go back until mine is ready regardless of what is best for everyone. It qualifies my point about me being worried about him slipping behind after working so hard for 18 months to catch up. Which means we need to work out how to manage that not thst I expect Boris to pander to my every whim. And pointing out that he (and by extension other kids) going back late will miss out isn't woe is me / him it's a statement of fact. The kids being "taught" at home in isolation will be academically and socially worse off than the kids with proper teachers. That's a fact not a pity party. I can worry about nurses dying in their hospitals, the economy crashing, people losing their homes, increased deaths from DV and neglect and my child's welfare all at the same time. I don't need to only worry about the most pressing one.

OP there is literally nothing academic your ds would be going to learn at school between May and September that you couldn't easily teach him at home in that time. You wouldn't need 6 hours a day to do it in, either. Worry all you like but you really don't need to worry about that.

CLAP THE NHS THURSDAYS BOO THE GOvT FRIDAYS

For the brilliant mess of the job they have made so far and the rubbish they try to come out with. Selling us short on BREXIT was one thing that was bad enough but this clown is lying to us through the times when we deserve the truth.

I dont know where we get these people to run the country. They state that the peak is going to be next week, what planet are they on, they are building hospitals to house 5000 people just in one exhibition centre. You have to ask therefore is it likely the peak will be next week. The stats show that we are having a higher death rate than Italy at the same time as us. The fact that economic figures show there will be a massive cliff edge for the economy and that things will be as worse as the depression or thereabouts, with the Prime ministers Lead virus advisor saying we have made a mistake in locking down and that it should end and we should go for 'herd immunity' and that we are sacrificing the young futures for saving the old. Same as the govt getting staff at care homes to talk to their residents into signing do not necessitate forms. The govt had the choice at the beginning to follow the model that worked Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, but they didn't want the effect of this on the economy. So having cocked that up they then go for herd immunity but people then get concerned and they then have this farce of a lockdown- with the regular statement stay at home - so they can say yes we said to stay at home. Now they want to persuade us that the way forward was this half baked 'herd immunity' that isn't working anywhere else. Talk about is manage things - do they realise that sending people to work just on a notion that it may result in herd immunity when there are no signs of this to date is futile and will make a bad problem worse. When will they start seeing what works instead of what works for them and their shareholdings? Dont they realise most people don't have massive shareholdings and even if they did they would choose their lives and their loved ones to keep their stash of money safe. We are no way near the peak and is about time somebody with a bit of common sense and humanity rather than economics started to advise the prime minister- let's not forget it's us that put them where they are and we can also remove them. A recession or depression is bad no doubt, but humans are not tests for some theory that has no real basis and works more on hope and preconceptions, how far have those got them so far.

As for the serum test, they didn't want to test people with the test the rest of the world was using because this was an identify and isolate and control test, they wanted to make sure their economy wasn't affected and 'herd immunity' was achieved. Then they said we will get the serum test so we can say you've had it already back to work, were they so shallow to realise this test, therefore, tells people if they haven't had it and they will then stay at home, now they say the test they put all their hope on doesn't work. They state its the chemicals that we cant get hold of the chemical companies to say there is no shortage of these - they say there are problems but cannot say what these problems are and when asked by C4 they refuse to comment. I think we know what it is - their test will show that their herd immunity figures that 60% have already had it are false. Have they not listen to the welsh doctors all the people in their ICU beds are under 50 years of age. Its been 3 months and they haven't even got to the point where they can say we are testing substantial people, their soundbites don't match reality as the NHS doesn't have the PPE they need and deserve maybe we should have clap for the NHS every Thursday and boo the Govt every Friday for the job they're doing. God even Trump is doing a better job.

I'm not seeing a plan that isn't still most non vulnerable people catching it

I agree StatisticallyChallenged

I’m sorry that your thread has led to so many bizarre projections about yours, and other people’s capacity/commitment to being a good parent/citizen @SleepingStandingUp - utterly depressing and judgmental. You asked a honest question, that I’d like to know the answer to as well, but I’m not sure mumsnet is the place for it. And no I don’t hate my child. Think I’m off to flouncer’s corner!

The first 'peak' will be around 3-4 weeks after schools closure. Bearing in mind that many people still got together for mother's day on 22.3. the peak might be around 19.4. Looking at Italy, I'd say it will be more a plateau than a peak.

After this, death rates of members of the general public and demand on for critical care will slow down very, very gradually over the following 3-4 weeks. This takes us roughly to 18.5. During this period we will see a rapid increase in nurses and doctors being critically ill .

I wouldn't be surprised if schools opened briefly for 4-6 weeks after May half-term (29.6). This would lead to an increase in Covid cases and deaths and another peak/plateau 4-6 weeks after they close the schools for the summer so beginning-mid July.

Schools to start in September and close at October half-term until Christmas. I'd expect half termly school closures until we have a way to tackle Covid either vaccine or anti-viral drugs.

The government will have to invest heavily in online learning and adapt the curriculum and how it is delivered accordingly.

To those posters who shout keep everything shut, please remember that millions of people will loose everything, their livelihoods and futures.

Thousands of children are vulnerable, due to SEN or due to living in abusive homes. Lockdown is a downwards spiral. We cannot be in lockdown for ever. There will have to be a balance between protecting people from Covid and protecting the public from the effects of lockdown. There are no easy ways forward.

There was a professor on radio 4 this morning (missed his name) and he seemed to suggest the current lock down could go on until the end of May.

He was reiterating the importance of not lifting measures too soonas that would then cause an increase in cases again. Also, it depends on how quickly cases decline.

Personally, I think we will be in this situation for a while. Not wishing to be all doom and gloom, just realistic.

I think there will also be a limit to how much businesses can tolerate the oscillating restrictions idea. I wonder if they are actually more likely to focus that on state facilities - primarily schools, but also things like libraries, sports places, playparks etc. Possibly along with continued social distancing for the elderly and vulnerable