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Original poster

If the peak is in 9 days...

260 replies

SleepingStandingUp · 03/04/2020 19:07

And we'd have been in lockdown for 3 weeks, does that mean lockdown is likely to end within the next 4-6 weeks? Or sooner? Could the kids be back at school before May half term?

OP posts:
Original poster
SleepingStandingUp · 03/04/2020 22:40

We are 11 days into social distancing now.
Surely that's not right... Its been about a month hadn't it🤣🤣🤣

OP posts:
Sapphiresunrise · 03/04/2020 22:40

This lockdown is not going to continue like this until June. Not a chance.

LavenderQuartz · 03/04/2020 22:42

why not @Sapphiresunrise

Sostenueto · 03/04/2020 22:43

sleeping it sure is and the system to grade them is going to be unfair to say the least. But that's for another thread😕

Delatron · 03/04/2020 22:43

@SpokeTooSoon I completely agree.

I have no idea why everyone thinks September. That would be madness.

LavenderQuartz · 03/04/2020 22:44

why would it be madness @delatron

people want to limit the spread

StatisticallyChallenged · 03/04/2020 22:45

This is why I wonder about them letting childcare open first Delatron. Where we are - tends to be two working parents - I'd say only about 1/5 use holiday childcare at any one time. Most of the others have a stay at home parent, or a term time worker, or stagger their holidays and only use care for a few weeks. You'd get some kids mixing over summer, building immunity, reducing the size of that school returner wave

JohnMcCainsDeathStare · 03/04/2020 22:45

9 days is the earliest for 'peak death' but then there would also be a surge in cases AFTER then, assuming a bigger roll-out of tests. This is a result of the 2 week average incubation period but also the effect of people movement prior to lockdown. This would mean that cases would be expected to increase even if there are no subsequent new infections after lockdown.
This means that the shortest possible lockdown would be 1 month but it is not likely to be the case given that heard immunity might not be a thing with this virus and there is still no cure or vaccine yet.
The question is what peak death will look like and the need to avoid any subsequent spikes post-lockdown.

Wordofwarning · 03/04/2020 22:46

Social unrest.

And I love having my dc home but two adults and two dc trying to do online lessons and meetings with .5mb internet is impossible.

So sooner they are back the better for us and them.

Gamble66 · 03/04/2020 22:47

@SleepingStandingUp I know right
My guess is restrictions until weather changes dramatically - a few degree rise has been shown to slow transmission down.
Schools won't go back till September

fromlittleacorns · 03/04/2020 22:48

"Review in autumn whether we need to lockdown over winter when pressure is higher on the NHS."

One thing to bear in mind is that there is a lot of time to increase capacity in the NHS before autumn - ventilators, ppe, beds, training. I think few people think there can be a vaccine by then, but there may be some combo of anti-virals. (And, maybe, an antibody test although as a pp has pointed out if that shows that not many people have had it that doesn't itself solve the problem.)

Gamble66 · 03/04/2020 22:50

If we had had mass testing and individual isolation as soon as we had cases we would not be here now.
80% of transmissions happen within family homes or shared accommodation so lockdown with no testing and self isolating within family units or HMO etc is statistically the most ineffective way to slow infection rates.

Deadsouls · 03/04/2020 22:52

I've accepted that kids won't go back to school until September in all likelihood.
The thought of say 3 more months of this is hard to stomach though

Delatron · 03/04/2020 22:53

@LavenderQuartz you think a second wave in autumn is a good idea then?

This virus won’t have disappeared by September...

Gradual reduction of lockdown over summer then a reintroduction overwinter is a better strategy.

Sorry but you won’t be any safer in September than June.....

Delatron · 03/04/2020 22:54

There won’t be a vaccine by autumn.

Sostenueto · 03/04/2020 22:55

We are not in full lockdown which we really need to be in if you want this over with pretty nifty like. People all around continue to break the 'rules' as they seem to think rules are for everyone bar them. I only gave to look out my window and see these broken on a regular basis. Workmen putting cable in, workmen on building sites it folliwing social distancing. Families popping round with DC in tow to visit grandparents . Teens hanging around in groups, kids climbing over locked gates of parks, people going shopping every day. People going to the beach in cars to walk the dog. Etc etc. We need full and unequivocal lockdown. Do that and September could be viable. Don't do that and it will take longer.

CoffeeCoffeeTea · 03/04/2020 22:55

Just had a massive row with my family as I do not agree with lock down and they do .But I accept that schools, universities will not open before September.

LavenderQuartz · 03/04/2020 22:56

no i dont...they need to do what they can regarding lockdown. i'm all for it

but sending kids back to school because they are missing friends or parents have had enough is stupid

Sostenueto · 03/04/2020 22:57

Well it certainly ain't slowing it down in India and Africa gamble where it a bit more than a couple of degrees hotter!

Delatron · 03/04/2020 22:58

Yes @StatisticallyChallenged that makes much more sense than letting all the kids go back together in September.

I think people think it will be over by September. This magical month we are all
focusing on.

It won’t. Therefore a staggered return over June/July to build a bit of immunity makes far more sense. The economy would suffer far less also. The government will be thinking like this.

Porcupineinwaiting · 03/04/2020 22:59

There wont be a vaccine by autumn but surely by then we'll have sorted the NHS to be up to dealing with another wave of infection. Plus most of the healthcare workers will have had it by then (the silver lining to the current shocking situation).

Also, a lot of research into treatment is happening right now so within a few months we may have more ideas about what may work.

That said, I dont think we'll be fully locked down til Sept. I think there will be a partial relaxation in June, then maybe a tightening up again as numbers start to rise.

Delatron · 03/04/2020 23:01

It’s not about sending kids back to school because they miss their friends!

It’s because sending all children back to school in September (and all those parents back to work) at the same time is a bad idea.

The economy won’t cope with a 6 month lockdown and the government won’t do it...

Sostenueto · 03/04/2020 23:01

Hear hear lavender

Redwinestillfine · 03/04/2020 23:01

There is no exit strategy, and if testing shows a very low percentage of the population have had it yet then I don't see how restrictions can be lifted much without a vaccine.

Delatron · 03/04/2020 23:02

So you’d chose a second wave to conicide with flu season (where thousands die?) over the summer months? Plus the economy could benif