If the peak is in 9 days...

[SleepingStandingUp]

And we'd have been in lockdown for 3 weeks, does that mean lockdown is likely to end within the next 4-6 weeks? Or sooner? Could the kids be back at school before May half term?

I agree @Egghead68

We will see controlled relaxing of measures in June. We won’t stay locked down until September.

Well we will all have to look towards China and South Korea to see what happens as they slowly come out of lockdown and pray there isn't a second wave of Covid and try and judge when life might return to normal.

I think the overall plan might still be a version of the original herd immunity idea - just adjusted to allow for NHS capacity to be scaled up and for social distancing to be implemented at a level which balances it. Vaccines are an age away, and the antibody test gives useful information but it doesn't fix anything as such. If antibody testing indicates only 5 million have had it (by the time they're widely available) then what? Indefinite lockdown until there's a vaccine/antiviral?

This virus could become a yearly thing like flu so maybe normality as it was won't return till there's a vaccine maybe early next year? Who knows!?

@ Sostenueto totally agree -

I don't care if my kids are miles behind where they should be at the end of this, as long as we are all well. If it takes them a couple of years to catch up it's not a big deal. And i say this as a secondary school teacher.

Don't know but myself and members of my family have had events changed this month/next month rescheduled for September. Are orgs being told that Sept is their best bet?

Also as this is a pandemic and worldwide none of us will be in the clear until all the world is clear and I cannot see that happening in places like India and Africa and other countries with very poor health systems.

@Bahhhhhumbug yes clearly I expect Boris to consult me on every decision. If the kids can go back and some sort of normality resumes, I'll be worried about my son for reasons other than if he does go back too soon. I'm fully entitled to worry about MY SON and for these decisions affect him without expecting any decision made nationally to be about individuals.

Although I don't think schools will totally go back before September I don't believe we'll be on lockdown until then.

I've seen evidence that fit D is helpful in fighting the illness and UV light kills it so in fact they will want people getting daylight and sunlight and being out in summer months when over the peak may not spread the infection so quickly.
Also the tourist industry brings in money for the economy so it will probably be beneficial.

What I do think will remain is restrictions on travel, maybe restrictions on numbers of people so car parks closed etc. Maybe shops having strict opening hours or limited days.
Supermarkets keeping the social distancing rules so we don't see hundreds of people fighting over the burger section for bbqs.

What we do know is that coming out of lockdown will be much harder than going into it with regards not being able to predict the outcome.

In Scotland we were told right at the beginning of the school closure that with all probability schools would not reopen until August ( start of our new school year). I’m glad we were given that message so we don’t have any of this ongoing uncertainty. I know that I’ll be wfh, fulltime, till then. My employer (NHS - back office function) are expecting our office to be shut till at least June. Again I’m glad we have been given clear guidance. It’s a shame Boris won’t man up and do the same.

Optimism keeps me going.
I personally think things will take a turn for the better sooner than anyone could have predicted.

This is my concern it only takes 1 person somewhere in the world to have it and we end up back where we are now.
I just don't see a way out

Actually I don’t think after May half term is beyond reality, schools go back everything else remains pretty locked down to keep curve as flat as possible. Full lock down again for August and September for second wave then back for autumn term from October.

Well I have an 18 yr old yr 13 Dgd who is supposed to start University in September having worked day and night literally for 7 years to earn a place at Kings College London in September. Her whole future life depends on it and she's in full lockdown for at least 4 months while she is on immune suppressing drugs for an autoimmune blood disorder. So yep I can say I'm extremely worried about her!

The government can't keep paying 80% wages for a year. Even if they could, the businesses can't keep paying their overheads for that long. Gradually their reserves will dwindle to nothing, people will be made redundant and more and more will be pushed on to basic benefits instead.

With drastically reduced tax incomes, and much higher outgoings on benefits, services will be cut to the bone. Including social care and the NHS. More people could end up dying from those cuts alone - Scotland has suspended most routine cancer screening due to Covid (for practical not financial reasons at this stage but it'san example); how many lives will that cost? That's before you get to the physical impacts of grinding poverty and then the mental ones - addictions and suicides tend to skyrocket in these situations.

The virus is not the only potential cause of death.

We are 11 days into social distancing now. Average time for symptoms to show up is 5.2 days and then another 18.5 days for mortality to occur (among those who will die from this). So that is about 24 days, adding another day for reporting - say 25 days. If we imagine the spread was highest the day before social distancing was implemented, the highest number of people will probably die 14 days from today, and then we will see a gradual decline of deaths. Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead verges on criminal imo.
Just my opinion

its a shame the daily death figures dont back that up in anyway @Sunshineafterrain24

@Namelesswonder i think you are right..and we just have to cope with it. We have had nothing like this before and need to think about what is actually important in the big picture.

@Sostenueto life must feel so uncertain to her school year

i cant help but feel if the reports were all full of children and younger adults dying then the whole thing would be taken more seriously and the old 'the economy won't cope, we'll all be on benefits' would not matter at all

because its mainly older people dying (at the moment) people dont care and claim the lockdown should end because people will commit suicide and the kids miss their schoolfriends

Wouldn’t make sense to lockdown again in August?

Preferable to get the second wave over with then. Review in autumn whether we need to lockdown over winter when pressure is higher on the NHS.

Scotland breaks up in June so different scenario.
Our school wouldn’t break up until July 23rd....

I don’t get why people think everyone going back at the same time in September will be better? You really don’t want the second peak in autumn/winter ...

@Sostenueto Wait and see what happens - I don't think pupils heading to Uni are going to be short changed. I hope that's some comfort to you. Universities are also aware things may have to be different this year.

Agree allowing Cheltenham to go ahead was was criminal.

Then a week later we are on full lockdown.

I keep saying on these threads and I still firmly believe schools will reopen in mid-late June for a few weeks before the summer break.

I wonder if a bookie would take my money on that because I really feel it’s what’s going to happen.

Totally agree statisticallychallenged.