If the peak is in 9 days...

[SleepingStandingUp]

And we'd have been in lockdown for 3 weeks, does that mean lockdown is likely to end within the next 4-6 weeks? Or sooner? Could the kids be back at school before May half term?

Could be early June, maybe sooner?

I agree with others that say the government is choosing their words incredibly carefully. IMO They are drip feeding us information on the lockdown on a need to know basis. People would react badly to be told we will be in lockdown on and off for months on end.

Employment is 'essential' for everyone who needs to put a roof over their head and food on the table.
My very unpopular opinion is that schools will be back late May or after May half-term whenever that is.
I see shops and leisure activities etc. Open in May.
I see people being able to take holidays in the summer.
Again they are just my opinions, I'm trying to be optimistic and hopeful. Nobody at all, has confirmed that schools are back in September, it's just speculation.
It must be very tiring for parents having to work from home and support their children at the same time, I don't blame them at all for finding it hard and wanting respite.

Ideally what we want is for strict lockdown to continue until cases are low again, and then some way of controlling the spread until there’s a vaccine, probably through a combination of some social distancing plus extensive testing and contact tracing. And hopefully there’ll be better treatments available somewhere along the way. That would be better than on-and-off lockdowns for the next 18 months.

My 4 year old goes to nursery for reasons other than childcare, and one of those reasons was for socialisation. She’s an only child with two parents who work and she’s always thrived in her nursery. Now she’s at home 7 days a week with parents still working, she can’t play with her friends, we can’t go to the usual places we’d go to. She misses her friends, she misses nursery, she misses gymnastics, she misses visiting her granny. It’s a bloody sin and I feel rotten for her. Her nursery graduation probably isn’t going to happen, she’s not going to have a proper transition from nursery into primary school, so while there’s no choice but to get on with it, it’s ok to wish it was otherwise and to mump and moan a bit.

If these conditions continue as they are until June, even if it's just 'sitting on the sofa' I honestly believe the suicide rate will increase as well as the number of deaths from DV cases and illness that became worse through lack of access to treatment due to lockdown.

I like having my children at home, it's no skin off my nose. My almost 13 yo is getting set work off her teachers daily and has constant emails from them to go through. She knows that the work isn't optional so she cracks on.

My 9 yo hasn't been set any work from school so I give her stuff from the websites we've been guided towards from school. She goes to her room to "get on with it" and I check her every so often to check that she's doing it. 9 times out of 10 she isn't and she's playing or doing anything other than school work 😂.

DH and I are working from home. We're all working (or not in DD2's case) at separate desks and it's fine...

However, I would love for the DDs to be able to go back to school. Not because I don't want to be responsible for them but because DD2 is desperate to see her friends and keeps getting teary because she misses them. She FaceTimes but it's not the same. There's not much for them to do. DD1 is finding it harder to switch off from her school work and feels like that she has to get it all done at once. It's stressing her out. I keep telling her that she only needs to attempt to do what she would be able to do at school ie. in the hour that a lesson would take. She thinks she has to get it ALL done. We've had lots of meltdowns and tears about it.

I think it might be more of a plateau than a sharp peak, and they're just hoping that plateau will not exceed the increased capacity of the NHS. It's either that or aiming to suppress it to virtually zero then go for very aggressive testing and contract tracing but that would probably require pretty much closed borders given how this started.

I suspect schools will be amongst the last to go back - probably non essential shops, then maybe childcare over summer (nurseries, holiday clubs etc) which would still be a smaller proportion of kids out and about, then schools, then restaurants/bars/clubs last. The on off lockdown model would be horrific for businesses as the uncertainty would be crippling

@SleepingStandingUp nobody actually knows the answer to this. But you are absolutely allowed to worry about whatever worries you. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

worry about today not tomorrow - it is hard but try.

What else can you do in a situation like this? it’s the shittest

I think we need to keep some positivity as well though, I am frontline nhs in Scotland and it hasn’t quite reached high numbers in our area but we are anticipating it over the next few weeks. I’m hoping and praying for it to come sooner rather than later so we can get back to some form of normality, DH has been furloughed which is better than being laid off (structural engineer in agriculture) but they can’t stay off indefinitely as buildings are needed by farmers for lambing/milking and the government can’t keep up furlough payments indefinitely either. Schools I agree they won’t be back quickly but that’s ok we can manage with childcare as long as DH is working, there is no way my wage along can sustain the family. To the poster then said one parent would just need to give up their job to look after the kids that would be me then, frontline nhs, giving up my job then

"Professor Ferguson said: “We’re going to have to keep these measures [full lockdown] in place, in my view, for a significant period of time probably until end of May, maybe even early June. May is optimistic.”
When lifted, enforce some forms of social distancing for months more."

"Prof Ferguson said once lockdown is over, people will still need to practise social distancing for many more months to avoid a resurgence, could mean schools/universities staying closed until the autumn, and people continuing to work from home rather than return to their offices."

Source: mobile.twitter.com/lindayueh/status/1244203389325582336

The kids will be back at school for the second half of the summer term.

@Sapphiresunrise I totally agree with you !!!

BedIsBliss.. In your opinion, if they go back in Aug, do you think they will go back into the same year they left? I know my DS will not handle moving up to the next year straight away?

I’ve just finished my week of being the rota teacher looking after key worker children in school. Can’t lie, I was very thoughtful coming out, I’m changing jobs in September and I am sure I won’t go back to my current school. I left my badge in my manager’s pigeon hole just in case. I’ve cleared out my room.

It would be crazy to allow over 1000 children back into the building, along with more than 70 staff members. I don’t know how it’s going to work, but I’d say a gradual return is likely.

Honestly I think January. September ideally!

There’s now way we’ll be ready for autumn

There’s no way they’ll want another bout in autumn and winter.

January and a short summer holiday

I hope I’m wrong because my mental health is rocky as fuck and I’m in tears most days.

I can't see non-essential travel out of your area being a thing this summer - even if conditions are somewhat better and lockdown less locked-down, I can imagine there still being moves to prevent/discourage people moving far from their local area so at least they can manage surges a bit more by region - remember it will peak in different areas at different times. IIRC, London first, places like South West later. But who knows. Not expecting kids back before September earliest, but they can't just run this to conveniently fit into school term times.

@Booseysmom I think it's going to be difficult and we need to tell our kids there will be fallout for everyone for a while. Like I said - my daughter is in the same position and really upset.

@BedisBliss.. thanks. DS is 6 and doesn't understand what's going on. It's just so unfair on our kids

I doubt we would be back to normal by September. Then there is the expected second wave of the disease coming in winter.

@LavenderQuartz, a friend, now old, told me during a stressed period with DS that there are a few things parents need to do. Help with reading, help with arithmetic. teach them to swim and cook. The rest they will learn with pressure from their age group. These are basic skills, concentrate on them.

@LavenderQuartz, a friend, now old, told me during a stressed period with DS that there are a few things parents need to do. Help with reading, help with arithmetic. teach them to swim and cook. The rest they will learn with pressure from their age group. These are basic skills, concentrate on them.

Sorry for double post.

I’m a SEN teacher for children with very severe and complex needs. School is respite for many of our parents, the only break they get to sleep and recharge. I’m exhausted looking after them for 6 hours cannot imagine what’s it’s like 24/7. I really feel for them as I know the 6 week holiday is tough and that’s when they can go out.

I have my own four DC at home one was just about to sit her National 5 exams (GCSEs) she had worked so hard to try and bring her results up from prelims. Also have one in P7 who has probably done her last day in primary school and is upset.

But all this is irrelevant really as I just want us all to come out the other side of this still alive.

So even if it were possible and safe for the kids to go back to some sort of normality along with their parents etc earlier rather than later, you wouldn't want that to happen as it wouldn't be good for your one child? Wow.