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Original poster

If the peak is in 9 days...

260 replies

SleepingStandingUp · 03/04/2020 19:07

And we'd have been in lockdown for 3 weeks, does that mean lockdown is likely to end within the next 4-6 weeks? Or sooner? Could the kids be back at school before May half term?

OP posts:
Mascotte · 03/04/2020 20:20

@LavenderQuartz there’s not because of the particular nature of my work and terms of employed

lilmishap · 03/04/2020 20:24

@PepePig is that whole post a joke? . School isn't optional unless you're wealthy enough to be at home educating them.

I hope at least now the parents who primarily saw them as a place to dump their kids off at actually appreciate the work teachers do
Really?Those parents you describe, who understand they will be breaking the law if their kids don't go to school, are at risk of being made dead, homeless, unemployed resulting in neglecting their kids, I pity them and the kids that are going to end up in care over this.

But you waste your hope on people being more grateful for adults in a career they choose, train for and are paid for, nobody is conscripted into teaching.

Trajectoryoflife · 03/04/2020 20:24

And I want to add that I am a nurse and I am still worrying about this particular subject.

You are allowed to be concerned about several things at once! It is allowed Smile

AgentCooper · 03/04/2020 20:25

@LavenderQuartz my sister is a teacher of children with additional needs, many with autism. In a deprived area where many parents earn fuck all and live in tiny flats. These are kids who get massively anxious if DSis wears a different pair of shoes in the classroom. She’s trying to stop panicking about how they and their parents are coping.

So she’s pretty keen for the schools to go back, yeah.

ilovecakeandwine · 03/04/2020 20:26

Sigh yet another thread where everyone thinks they know .
As much as I don't think you deserve 1 or 2 comments on here you kinda asking for it . No one knows !!!
Yes the peak is a week or so but September is the worst case scenario or is ? it I don't know . I'm not going to say it's May or September or Christmas 2021 I don't know no one does .
Just wait and see .

FudgeBrownie2019 · 03/04/2020 20:26

I love having my DC home - they're lovely. But despite being a qualified teacher and educational consultant, it's fucking hard for them and for us. I don't expect it to end any time soon - there's no way schools will be back before September and I'm trying to set a calm routine in place now rather than rush to get everything done in the first couple of weeks because this lockdown isn't a short term thing by any stretch of the imagination.

My DC miss their friends, they miss school, they miss their sports and clubs. They're both very sporty and active children and this will absolutely have an impact on their emotional wellbeing however we handle it. To simply state "get over it" isn't particularly helpful because actually, this is a bigger deal than some people realise and will need careful handling.

Original poster
SleepingStandingUp · 03/04/2020 20:28

But isn't the point that all our children are missing out not if they all go back in May and mine goes back in Sept

OP posts:
cushioncovers · 03/04/2020 20:28

How can we peak in a week or so when most of the population hasn't even been exposed to CV yet? The virus has barely started its journey around the country. Apart from a few hot spots barely any of us have come into contact with it yet.

MrsTerryPratchett · 03/04/2020 20:29

She’s trying to stop panicking about how they and their parents are coping.

They're not. I work in housing and those children are kicking holes in the walls while their parents tell me I don't know what I'm talking about when I suggest small amounts of structure. I have no idea how these children will come through this.

MorganKitten · 03/04/2020 20:29

From working with school - we will be lucky to go back September, if they can some school local to me want to do Scottish terms and go back August.

hopsalong · 03/04/2020 20:30

I think it's feasible that my son's school will be back after May half term. Wouldn't have thought that until a couple of days ago when we got a letter about how lunch payments will be taken not in advance but retroactively next term, depending on the start date. I think if they'd fixed on being closed until September they wouldn't have gone into such detail about that. But this may be unusual. It's a private school and in an area of central London with a high initial rate of cases (so will be among first boroughs in country to peak).

Because we went into lockdown late, it hasn't flattened the curve as much as we would any of us like -- hence earlier exit....

Original poster
SleepingStandingUp · 03/04/2020 20:33

Trajectoryoflife... I am a nurse... You are allowed to be concerned about several things at once! It is allowed i;m just gonna quote you every time someone tells me i'm only allowed to worry about people dying because anything else is selfish and proof i just want to send my child away

OP posts:
MonkeyToesOfDoom · 03/04/2020 20:34

Why do some people think the peak is in Easter? They said 12-14 weeks 2/3 weeks ago. cos i listened to the Govt briefing today

Part of me hopes it is then tbh. If the deaths are doubling every three days it's going to be over 1000 a day by then.

hopsalong · 03/04/2020 20:34

On the date of the peak: Hancock said today that April 12th looked likely to be the peak, with deaths of around 1000 a day. (Horrible though those numbers are, they suggest the doubling rate has already decreased a lot. The test positivity rate has also been down for the last two days.)

The Easter weekend has for several weeks been spoken of as the peak. I expect lockdown was timed to come to an initial end just afterwards, giving the government more buy-in to extend it for w few more weeks. (Another three is my guess, then slight relaxing, some shops back open etc.)

ssd · 03/04/2020 20:35

Absolutely no way will schools be back before Aug or September

Might even be October

Worse case scenario, schools go back August and September then we have another lock down before Xmas

We will see lock downs in cycles until the vaccine is ready.

LavenderQuartz · 03/04/2020 20:37

@hopsalong....some shops open?/ sorry,which ones are currently closed? they all seem open except for shitty primark/next

refraction · 03/04/2020 20:40

Professor in channel 4 said we were only 5 percent through! 😳

KatharinaRosalie · 03/04/2020 20:41

It will not be in a week. That's what they told us in France as well - oh just 2 weeks. Oh just another week..
Now they're talking about end of April for just the peak and we've been on lockdown since the 17th of March.

Ellie56 · 03/04/2020 20:42

As they have so readily written off the GCSEs and A level exams, I doubt very much that any schools will be back before the new academic year.

MonkeyToesOfDoom · 03/04/2020 20:45

From the link posted by Ilovecake

"Meanwhile, Nicola Sturgeon has warned the coronavirus peak in Scotland is still some way off."

"The first minister said: "I want to be very clear that nothing I have seen gives me any basis whatsoever for predicting the virus will peak as early as a week's time here in Scotland."

And her chief medical officer Dr Catherine Calderwood also stressed: "I have not been able to find that the peak will be as soon as we're hearing in the media today. Now is not the time to think that perhaps it will all be over soon.

Basically no one really knows but they're choosing to use language carefully so as not to upset those getting bored in lockdown by telling them it's going to be 2+ months.

JustInCaseCakeHappens · 03/04/2020 20:48

It’s stress and worry I might pass it onto them
then surely you of all people should understand why the last thing anyone wants is to reopen the schools anytime soon!

BooseysMom · 03/04/2020 20:49

People need to continue social distancing until the vaccine appears unfortunately, however long it takes. I don’t think anywhere near enough people would have survived covid by the end April to achieve herd immunity so it would counterproductive to open schools in May

I listened to an interview with a consultant virologist today, Dr Chris Smith, and he said there was a 300% resurgence in infections when the lock-down was lifted in Hong Kong so to ease off too early would be fatal. Also he said the vaccine will take 1.5 years as it has to be 100% trustworthy and then it has to be rolled out to 8 billion people.

What really worries me is the fact that the whole lock-down is to ease burden on the NHS and stagger the hospital influxes so does that mean they predict we're all going to get it mild or otherwise? If we don't get it this year it may well happen next year before any lock-down is in place.

mindutopia · 03/04/2020 20:50

The peak will be towards the end of April (in terms of the worst impacts on the health system and deaths) - I work in infectious diseases research and this is what I am gleaning from conversations with colleagues. My own work isn't personally involved with COVID-19 at this stage.

But our school has said they are hoping they may still be able to open for at least a short time in the summer term. It will definitely not be before May half term, I don't think.

Chosennone · 03/04/2020 20:51

I just can not see HOW we will go from these extreme measures, including loved ones dying in their own, to mingling amongst each other. The govt are really pushing it now, quite rightly if people are still ignoring the restrictions and decent weather is forecast. After the peak we need mini peaks don't we? Turning the tap on and off?