Worried About Coronavirus- thread 35

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

Good point about the Liverpool Madrid game and The North West. An influx of fans from a highly infected area will no doubt have an impact.

@defthand

From an extensive analysis of data from different regions of the world, our best estimate at the current time for the case fatality ratio of COVID-19 in China is 1·38% (95% CrI 1·23–1·53). Although this value remains lower than estimates for other coronaviruses, including SARS24 and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS),25 it is substantially higher than estimates from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.26, 27 Our estimate of an infection fatality ratio of 0·66% in China was informed by PCR testing of international Wuhan residents returning on repatriation flights. This value was consistent with the infection fatality ratio observed in passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship up to March 5, 2020, although it is slightly above the upper 95% confidence limit of the age-adjusted infection fatality ratio observed by March 25 (of 712 confirmed cases, 601 have been discharged, ten have died, and 11 remain in a critical condition). This difference might be due to repatriation flight data slightly underestimating milder infections, or due to cruise passengers having better outcomes because of a potentially higher-than-average quality of health care.

They seem to be saying that they don't think that number is reliable (due to underestimating milder infections or cruise passengers having better outcomes) and that the larger figure is a better guess?

I can see that Murray, I'm only 45 and I remember scandals when I was young about horror homes for people with ld. All in charity shop style old ladies, mens clothes, locally some were put in a cage in the garden.

In my life care has moved on an enormous degree! No large '' homes '... Smaller residential settings more like a proper house, better care.
Having said that community living schemes still have many flaws.
You sound very caring Murray.

BREAKING: A further 367 die as England's death toll reaches 1,651.

Telegraph

defthand I do not understand how someone who develops pneumonia following covid infection can be classed as mild!

Numbers really high again then

On sky they are saying the youngest person to die was 19 with no underlying conditions

I am. And I usually love my job. But it's not sustainable to operate like this for much longer... the staff that are well are knackered... and they are starting to stop picking Up the empty shifts as a result-and the PPE situation is awful.
And to top it all off we are constantly being asked to thank the NHS which of course is right-but my poor team are also on their knees, for less pay, and they aren't getting a priority shopping hour at the end of their bloody shifts :( it does feel like a kick in the teeth sometimes!!

@Oakmaiden

Clear as mud isn’t it?

But no I think they’re distinguishing between CFR and IFR there. CFR is the case fatality ratio (proportion of all cases that will eventually lead to death) and infection fatality ratio is the proportion of all infections that will eventually lead to death. So CFR is known, recorded cases and IFR is an attempt to capture the true death rate across a community, including asymptomatic cases. (It might be flawed)

That bit you bolded seems to talking about the strength of the correlation in IFR between the cruiseboat cases and the Chinese cases (with adjustment for prevalence based on Wuhan repatriations, which were all tested).

Those numbers have those that died at home up until now in them though as well I think? Which was 200...

@defthand

Ah, I think you are right there. Thank you!

@colouringinpro

Me either! But that was the Chinese definition and everyone seems to have run with it.

That is very interesting re IFR

So is that 367 England, 7 Wales, 13 Scotland (=387) and no figures for NI yet?

Is that in the last 24 hours??

Hard to tell. It is becoming evident that not all cases/deaths are being reported promptly...

6 new deaths in NI. U.K. total 393, I think?

I’m sure I’m being thick, but I’m not sure what the difference is between an “infection” and a “case”.

Fuck. I hope that is including the random catch up ones...

I think we were expecting a big rise today though weren't we, as that's including those who have died outside of hospital.

Though, it is keeping us in lockstep with Italy's progress...

Hopefully the news conference later will confirm what this figure is comprised of

What's time's the news briefing today, anyone know? And who's being trotted out to do it?

@Derbygerbil

“Infections” include asymptomatic cases — the people who never know they have it. What proportion of a community acquires this without symptoms is a crucial piece of data in working out the actual death rate. Early studies from cohorts of people where everyone was tested suggest this is around 60%. But it’s still not clear. We need more studies, more thorough testing.

Murry that is just so, so sad. My eldest boy is extremely protective of his little brother. I hope that never changes. His other brother also goes to a SEN school so hes less tolerant. You are doing an amazing job. It really highlights dispite people on FB wailing about the old and disabled during panic buying, as a society we really dont give a shit about either demographic. As I have known since my boys turned 15 months and started to show there difficulties.

I think some people will still struggle to get it after this has passed. But it just goes to show that disability and ill health cares not about age, race, wealth.

I absolutely salute you and your staff for your entire career, not just for the covid epidemic. You are the voice of the voiceless and forgotten.

Their for the grace of God go I.