Worried About Coronavirus- thread 35

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

@petiolaris, call her GP for advice? Maybe they are reducing frequency of appts, or waiting for PPE. Surely they wouldn't just drop it totally for someone with diabetes? Though I suppose the risk of exposing her...

If you've both been 'in' for 14 days, then you won't be able to infect each other.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-52094491

The care home situation seems to be replicated across Europe. It's a distressing situation and I feel for@MurrayTheMonk and all your colleagues. Didn't a poster on here say they were no longer taking care home residents to hospital for treatment but instead advising palliative care in the home?

Picklemewalnuts-it wouldn't be widely reported if it has hit a care home unless staff went to the press I guess...
They still aren't testing care home staff or service users. So we have had 5 service users symptomatic but as we can't get tests we don't know if they have it or not-therefore there is no separate reporting system for homes iyswim?

I don't believe them when they keep talking about PPE. Or tests really. We were promised both those things weeks ago

I'd really like to hope we are better prepared....

Sorry, I meant that we knew early enough that we are less likely to track infection into the care homes.

My service users are adults with LD and if they don't have a DNAR I've seen some worrying guidance this week re hospitals assessing capacity and probability of recovery for people that don't have it and making decisions on that basis. Which is worrying for those with LD or mental health issues and no families to shout for them.

Only two of my 10 have active next of kin who come and see them. The staff are the only people that care about the rest of them. I wouldn't like our chances arguing against a busy hospital consultant that our Preston needed a ventilator against someone with a vocal family and capacity. I think we know what the end result would be

Delurking to say thank you to MurraytheMonk for everything you and your colleagues are doing. I have been reading out your posts to my DH over the last few weeks - we have a preteen with LD.

I'm in correspondence with my local county counsellor about other provisions for LD children but am going to widen my self appointed remit

But anyway - thank you

I've been told (and unfortunately I don't have a source for this, but if I can find one I will post it) that hospital admissions have plateaued across the country apart from the North West.

The North West up until now has had a comparatively lower infection rate compared with elsewhere.

I don't know why or what's happening.

Maybe people in the NW are following the social distancing rules less!

I don't know

Maybe the North West situation is a result of all the Madrid fans in Liverpool on the 11th?

Only two of my 10 have active next of kin who come and see them. The staff are the only people that care about the rest of them. I wouldn't like our chances arguing against a busy hospital consultant that our Preston needed a ventilator against someone with a vocal family and capacity. I think we know what the end result would be

Omg that is heartbreaking. I have fought to get my son with ASD I to a independent SEN school. The though of non of his siblings caring about him as a adult is heartbreaking. Do the parents that are still alive care?

Scotland +430 new cases +13 new deaths.

netherlands 722 new confirmed cases. 175 new deaths

Interesting that china is reporting over 1000 asymptomatic cases currently in the country, most of which imported. And theyve admitted they didnt include asymptomatic cases in their "official" recording. I wonder what percentage of people get no symptoms at all

*netherlands 722 new confirmed cases

^those were confirmed hospital admissions due to covid-19, sorry I got the headline muddled up with the numbers.

@Jrobhatch29

There’s been some good work done on this recently in places like Iceland that are doing mass testing, and that village Vo, in Lombardy. General agree is that 60% of cases are asymptomatic or very mild, and they are usually in people under 30.

If its found alot of people are asymptomatic, would this alter the 80% mild, 15% severe, 5% critical ratio?

Yes, absolutely. Although that 80% mild includes pneumonia for many, so it’s not what we’d call mild in the traditional sense of a case of sniffles.

There’s an excellent study in the Lancet yesterday that estimates true case-fatality-rate at 0.66% when unascertained cases are included:

www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

It’s much, much higher in older age groups (13.4% in over 80s).

@defthand

Did you just scan it and find the lowest figure you could? Because I can't find anything that says that is their estimate of a "true case fatality rate".In fact they say their best estimate is 1.38% - 0.66% is merely an estimate they could making using one specific data set.

Unless I am missing something...

@Oakmaiden

No. I read the whole thing. It’s in the table if you scroll across to the line that includes censored and unascertained cases. It’s also in their results: “Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age.” It’s an estimate, but one based on the data they have right now. I’m not saying it’s right — and I think it might be lowish compared to say Italy.

Wales +112 new cases +7 new deaths

covid19-phwstatement.nhs.wales/

@Oakmaiden

Sorry, I just checked and I should say I meant the very last column “infection fatality rate”

This is: “Obtained by combining estimates of case fatality ratios with information on infection prevalence obtained from those returning home on repatriation flights.”

Late figures again.

That lancet report is interesting in that the hospitalisation rates quite closely match the imperial college predictions

Lego-in two cases- the younger service users- the under 35's-the families are still interested-ish. they come and visit once a fortnight. The other 8 are older and their parents have died-and their siblings aren't interested. In most cases they have never lived with our service user as as they are bit older (over 55's) so the SU was often put in an institution from a young age once it was realised how mentally and physically disabled they were. Thus they don't have the family bonds.
Lots of mine were in the same institution from
Childhood to when it shut about 25 years ago as well-and it wasn't a nice one :(

Thankyou Notonthestairs...x