Worried About Coronavirus- thread 35

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

So far, I think there is only one or two weeks this year apparently showing no statistically significant excess mortality.

I wonder how many excess deaths there need to be to trigger a statistical "excess". And how much effect the fact there will currently be fewer deaths from accidents/surgery/other infections has on the figures?

I'm thinking this through on multiple threads...

The excess death data is the one you want to watch. Raw number of all deaths is meaningless without some context.

I am wondering if there is a time lag on this too.

I believe the published data for Italy does not yet cover March.

I wonder if the number of deaths in the UK are too statistically small, so far, to show up in our published data. Each week in the UK we have around 10,000 a week around this time of year. 1% of that is 100. Assuming the margin of error is 2%, you won't see anything until we surpass at least around 30 deaths per day. And it depends on whether other causes of death are remaining stable or changing (less regular scheduled surgery might lead to a temporary reduction in deaths). I think the week by week data in this series is at least 2 weeks behind. It's possible that this week might be the first week that covid-19 could start showing in this particular data series. And it might be another week, maybe two yet.

That's not a conspiracy. That's just stat collection taking time to do.

Hope that makes some sort of sense.

The register of death shows figure for people dying of "respiratory" illnesses - so I guess changes to that figure are going to be enlightening...

I wonder how many excess deaths there need to be to trigger a statistical "excess". And how much effect the fact there will currently be fewer deaths from accidents/surgery/other infections has on the figures?

Crossed Post.

My thoughts exactly.

Less opportunity to be run over by a bus means less deaths by bus.
Less opportunity to die by being struck by lightning means less lightening deaths.

On the other hand you might get more domestic violence deaths and more deaths in freak gardening accidents or DIY disasters though.

We will see some sort of changes due to our changed normal behaviour.

Covid-19 deaths have to exceed this change to show.

On average this year, until 13 March, there have been 1660 deaths a week from respiratory conditions. 10 of those (in the last week) were due to Covid.

Week 12 should show an additional 167+ deaths, and week 13 has around 600 attributed to CV. So week 13 should show a noticeable change, I would imagine.

The register of death shows figure for people dying of "respiratory" illnesses - so I guess changes to that figure are going to be enlightening...

I think there are problems with this too though.

It was discussed before how cause of death can be vague and influenced by other factors.

For example how common has it been in the past to give the cause of death as old age or another comorbidity rather than respiratory illness in the past? It depends on the doctor on the day in no small amount. The fact we are looking for Covid-19 means it's more likely to be recorded as respiratory illness or covid-19. Not that more people have died of respiratory illness.

So I'm slightly cautious on that.

It's a useful tool but shouldn't be viewed alone.

The excess death one has to be looked along side it, and with a note of caution that deaths from other things, might go down now and be more common in six months to a year.

It's hard to guage.

Ultimately I don't think we will know until much further down the line in retrospect.

We may be asking too much to see it now if the death rate is 1% of cases.

Copied from Guardian Live News.

Covid-19 on 210 death certificates in England and Wales by 20 March
The ONS has published the first of its new weekly bulletin which will include all instances where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate and will include non-hospital deaths.

A total of 210 deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to and including 20 March (and which were registered up to 25 March) had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics.

This compares with 170 coronavirus-related deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales up to and including March 20.

A quick note on the difference between the figures published by the ONS and those that have been published thus far by NHS England and Public Health Wales:

The ONS death figures are based on the number of deaths registered in England and Wales where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate as “deaths involving Covid-19”. The number includes all deaths, not just those in hospitals, although there is usually a delay of at least five days between a death occurring and registration.

The figures published by NHS England and Public Health Wales are for deaths only among hospital patients who have tested positive for Covid-19, but include deaths that have not yet been registered.

Oakmaiden, I notice the number of deaths in London (where covid-19 data should show first) has remained fairly stable. Whether that's normal for this time of year I don't know.

Not so much worried but its bloody depressing. Just watch good morning tv and vanessa phelps was on and very full on....its that attitude i find depressing.

Im happy to follow all the rules but getting them rammmmmmmmeeeeddddd down your throat is miserable

Im happy to follow all the rules but getting them rammmmmmmmeeeeddddd down your throat is miserable

As well several posters own personal extended interpretation of the rules which they feel ought to apply to everyone, that's pretty hard to take too.

That's an additional - what - 25%?

@RedToothBrush

I don't know if it is normal, but I do know that those figures only go up to 13th March, and there had only been 11 deaths attributed to CV by then, so I wouldn't expect this to make much difference to the figures published so far.

Oh I get it now thank you!

Care home update... still got too few staff but down to 30% less than I need rather than at its worst 75%.
I'm currently living in.
I won't see my kids til Thursday and I hate it.
All the governmental PPE we'd were promised would arrive a fortnight ago has now been requisitioned for the Excel 🤷🏽‍♀️.

@MurrayTheMonk

It never stops, does it?

It does not . The thought of months of this is not inspiring!!

Haven’t had time to read the full thread this morning as at work but does the new addition of deaths mean they’ll be included in today’s 2pm figures?

Yet Dr Harries reassured us all that you would have the PPE you needed.

By new addition of deaths I mean the ones occurring in community

I'm not sure, namechange. I suspect not, because it would majorly alter the relevance of the figures.

Sorry if I'm not following the reasoning well enough...

Are we saying a lot of deaths in the U.K. so far were already probably dying of something else? Because it's hit the hospitals and the weakest of people? And that's why the stats aren't showing much? YET!

The spike in DV seems to be showing- several murders/family annihilation in the news.

I'm well aware that this isn't "only a problem for old people who were close to death anyway" so please don't start that again.

I fully expect this will spread across the population and a lot of otherwise well people are going to be very poorly- unless we are extremely fortunate with discoveries of treatment regimes/vaccines.

Murray would you know if it had hit in a care home in the U.K.?
Are they issuing guidance? There are two in our village, we're very worried about the residents and staff, though all seems ok so far.

Elderly DM has phoned to say her monthly chiropodist appointment is cancelled and her toes are hurting where the nails are growing in. She’s diabetic and foot injuries can be very bad. Now debating whether to continue social distancing or go and sort out her feet 😩

@petiolaris I think I would.

Wear a mask, gloves and maybe change your clothes when you get there?

Off topic. If you want a daily laugh, watch This Morning. I'm not usually a fan but I've sat laughing at the tele! A great distraction.