If CV turns out to be less deadly than flu...

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

do you think you will still feel the restrictions were worth it?

Just asking out of curiosity really.

Op, what do you suggest we do otherwise?

People are going to die regardless. Whichever route we take. It’s a shit situation. I’m pretty sure everyone agrees that.

the government completely failed to plan to this or respond to it as soon as they knew what was coming

I agree, but also - the public played a part in this, in not taking it seriously enough. We currently have 100's dying a day and people are still flouting the rules. I mean really - what will it take?

If there's no immunity @MintyMabel, then once you get treated you can go away and get infected again, so treatment is pointless.

So we stay indoors to flatten the curve. And we do so until the number of cases becomes smaller and a vaccine is developed and we then vaccinate.

Not only does flattening the curve help healthcare, it helps businesses and services still be operational. If we were all still out and about the contagious nature of the virus would mean large numbers of staff off sick at the same time, leading to huge stresses on the remaining workforce, pressures on businesses and schools. Before the lockdown our school staff reduced by 25%. You think that's better for the mental health of the team trying to keep a school going?

You keep fighting with people but you are starting from a false premise that seriously underestimated the affect on society of having half the nation sick at once.

Yes because:

1. Many of the population will have immunity to flu (either from vaccination or natural immunity), no one has immunity to coronavirus. Even if that weren't the case, the herd immunity threshold for coronavirus is approx 3 times that of the herd immunity threshold for flu. Even if the mortality rate of flu and coronavirus were exactly the same, that means that the number of people who die from COVID-19 will be many more than would die from flu because many more people will catch coronavirus than flu if the epidemic is allowed to run its course without intervention to prevent transmission. A 1% mortality rate for an disease that infects 20% of the population is a quarter of the deaths than 1% of one that infects 80% of the population.

1. COVID-19 appears to be affecting HCPs far more severely than the general population, possibly because of high infective dose of the virus. If we don't take drastic action until we have enough adequate PPE for them, many doctors and nurses will die unnecessarily.

@thedailycarbuncle I wouldn’t get too excited about Germany’s rates. Firstly, if there’s another health condition, they’re attributing the death to that. Secondly, their testing regime isn’t perfect. My cousin has been sick for almost two weeks, as has her husband, daughter and son in law. The son in law was hospitalised on Friday but they’re not testing the rest of the family. This family is very fit, regularly hiking and running. My husband’s cousin died last Monday; she was a mild asthmatic but in control (Never been hospitalised from an attack previously) - her death is being recorded as asthma. Both families are in the North Rhine-Westphalia region.

Starlight you can see from some of the posts here why I reckon.

Italy has a large elderly population which is one of the highest in the world. Majority are smokers. The Lombardy area is known to have the highest pollution in Europe. Also, many multi-generational families live together.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

“Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.”

People are going to die regardless.

This is the unspoken truth. Many people will die no matter what we do. But many more will die if we do nothing.

Vaccines are based on immunity @MintyMabel - that's how vaccines work. You are injected with a form of the virus and you develop immunity. No immunity, no vaccine.

Carbuncle how would you deal with it?

Op, what do you suggest we do otherwise?

Yes - that is also my question.

Yes, there will be some dire effects of isolation and lockdown. That is sad, but I do not see an alternative. In think it should also be noted that lockdown etc will come as a welcome relief from jobs/ responsibilities for some, and much needed time to spend with their DC's/ family.

@Mumlove5

Also, a far more tactile nation than us reserved Brits.

We also need to stop talking about "Italy" as a whole. Large parts of the country aren't as badly affected.

Whatever the ultimate death rate turns out to be isn’t particularly relevant IMO. What matters It seems much more communicable than flu As an example, we are a normally healthy family living and working in London. I’m in my late fifties and as far as I know I have only had flu (rather than a bad cold) once. My husband and and two adult children have never had it. I don’t know if that’s because we have some immunity or because it’s less easily spread.

What is very clear is that this virus is overwhelming health services globally. If an ‘ordinary flu’ mutation ever did the same thing we would have to take the same steps.

If we do nothing and people are dying in the streets like China that will affect mental health, economy, and people will still be abused.

In an ideal world, mass-scale antigen and antibody testing would start now.

Anyone with antibodies goes back to work.

Anyone currently infectious is quarantined and treated if necessary.

Anyone not immune or infected asked to monitor symptoms and come for testing at the first sign of infection. If they are vulnerable they stay at home, with proper help and support provided to help them do that.

What’s your solution then OP? You can’t go back in time and perform the testing and tracing that should have been done. What should happen to the people who are symptomatic and deteriorating? Are you just going to leave them to die and carry on around the bodies?

It is a view. Is it yours?

Dying in the streets @Josette77????

Yes and while we wait for the testing, which we are.

What are you suggesting?

They are expecting 200,000 deaths @HRH2020. I'm asking, what if that doesn't happen?

Well, if it doesn't happen, we can rejoice. Far more would have died if we hadn't practised social distancing, so that would in fact be a validation of the measures taken.

We can only compare COVID-19 with flu once there is a vaccine available and we have more data.

What's with the constant comparison with flu? It's nasty and it can have complications like pneumonia (I did last year. But it isn't as infectious as COVID-19; so many people think they've had it when what they had was a cold. (Hence those saying coronavirus is 'just flu'.

you can see from some of the posts here why I reckon

Yes!

I'm not easily worried by things. But you'd have to be a complete fool to not be worried by this. It is serious and it is happening, and sadly it is not possible to put a positive spin on a pandemic. The only way through is to listen to the advice, follow it and hope for the best.

“In an ideal world, mass-scale antigen and antibody testing would start now”

If wishes were horses...

Back in the real world, what should be done?

My solution again, for anyone who missed it:

In an ideal world, mass-scale antigen and antibody testing would start now.

Anyone with antibodies goes back to work.

Anyone currently infectious is quarantined and treated if necessary.

Anyone not immune or infected asked to monitor symptoms and come for testing at the first sign of infection. If they are vulnerable they stay at home, with proper help and support provided to help them do that.

They are working on scaling up antigen testing and antibody testing may happen soon. So that's at least good news.

You can’t wish for a test and that’s the answer

It’s not here yet so what else?

Ironically, with the cdc figures you have quoted, they state the numbers may be adjusted down as some of the data might be Covid related...