If CV turns out to be less deadly than flu...

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

do you think you will still feel the restrictions were worth it?

Just asking out of curiosity really.

@starlightgazers If my calculation is inaccurate, please provide the correct one. If you are referring to the numbers being inaccurate, I agree. But that's the only numbers we have during an ongoing pandemic.

@Rocketmam will you still feel that way if doing too much means that the economy takes 10+ years to recover?

I can avoid flu by having a yearly jab which generally gets the right flu virus to vaccinate against.
I have MS so I get one free. I took care of my dd who had flu last Nov without getting it. Without the jab, I would have got it.
There is no fucking jab against Covid-19. Please stop this teenage speculation shit.

@TheDailyCarbuncle how do you think the NHS would cope over the next few weeks if we hadn’t taken the measures we are now?

But most of you on this forum are DESPERATE for things to be dreadful, and awful, and for people to be dropping dead left, right and centre. What the fuck is wrong with you?

I'm absolutely not. I'm hugely relieved by how well the modelling suggests the lockdown will be in reducing the number of death. I think it's amazing.

I'm aghast by the number of people who would let so many people die because they don't personally think they'll benefit from these measures.

Regardless of it being less or more deadly than flu, the point of shutdowns across the globe at present is to prevent health systems becoming totally overwhelmed by the influx of seriously ill people who need ICU treatment and ventilators. SOME people have it but have a relatively mild illness. However so many others have such a serious form of it, and their bodies are unable to cope, that they require significant resources to be treated. And those resources are finite, not a never-ending supply - so they need to be rationed.

COVID-19 is much more infectious than the flu and we don’t have a vaccination for it. If we don’t slow down the infection our hospitals won’t be able to cope and the death rate will skyrocket.

OP, on this thread you are simultaneously arguing that Covid has a low death rate so we don’t need to be in lockdown and also that as soon as we come out of lockdown our families will catch it and die so there is no point being in lockdown. I get it. You don’t like lockdown. Neither does anyone else. Take a look at some global news and decide if Italy and Spain are just totally overreacting and should be carrying on as normal. Have a think about the field hospitals and temporary morgues. Search your brain for an answer to why a Tory government led by Boris Johnson would torpedo the economy if they had any other choice at all.

I’ll pointlessly say it again: lockdown buys time. We KNOW it doesn’t eradicate the virus! We KNOW it brings about other many and terrible consequences! But it gives us TIME to prepare - to build the ventilators and the hospitals and sadly the morgues. Time to work on antiviral treatments. Time to spread the rate of illness so that hospitals can manage. Time to spare our medics some of the massive exposure to the virus which is killing young and healthy doctors and nurses.

We weren’t ready for this pandemic. We need time.

But most of you on this forum are DESPERATE for things to be dreadful, and awful, and for people to be dropping dead left, right and centre. What the fuck is wrong with you?

I agree there are some doom mongers on here. But it simply cannot be denied that the situation is incredibly serious. SARS and sepsis ARE deadly, they are not flu and comparisons to it are pointless and unhelpful. The WHO are an incredible organisation and have the best experts it the world - they are generally reasoned and diplomatic - they simply would not be almost screaming at people/ governments for no reason.

If there are a lot of asymptomatic cases then observed transmission will go down faster than predicted and we will come out of this earlier than predicted

At the moment it is quite clear, from what is actually happening in Spain and Italy, that the NHS could not cope if unrestrained transmission is allowed. So we have to accept a period of restrictions to reduce transmission

And - god willing - these will allow the health service to cope.

OP, I’m sympathetic to your question and I think it’s worth asking... trouble is you won’t find the answer. There is a chance that this could set the ball rolling now for a new life where we have government restrictions imposed on us every 5 years or so as soon as some new flu comes out.

I don’t know, only time will tell. I agree that the social cost is going to be high. The effect this is having on those most in need of social connection is actually too great to think about; it forms part of my job and it’s horrible right now.

You will however be called thick and a bellend for even DARING to question the status quo so just brace for that, because obviously if you’re even asking the question it means you’re off out to the shops and kissing strangers in the street, right?

It probably wouldn't cope. Because the government has left the country totally vulnerable and without any sort of disaster planning.

If we tested and traced every case from the start, there would be no need for most of this.

I also don't think people realise that by staying home now they might prevent themselves/a loved one from getting it, but they or their loved one might still get it in October or in Feb 2021 or in January 2035

Most people get that. This is the whole point of lockdown, to flatten the curve so when they do get it they can get access to treatment if they need it not be left to die.

Do you understand that? If so, what's the problem?

Of course people don’t want to see high numbers

Hence relieved re restrictions

Bizarre thinking

Oh boring. Why are so many stupid people obsessed with this flu comparison.

Well, if it turns out to be deadlier than the flu, up to a million will die.
250,000 people died from flu even though there are immunisations year on year. This is supposed to be more contagious x3 iirc.
I doubt it will be anywhere near the fatalities from flu.

If Covid 19 turns out to be less deadly than flu I will do the same thing as I would do if I won the lottery since both scenarios are as equally likely to happen, happy events. I would weep tears of joy and then throw a party.

It doesnt matter if it's worse than the flu or not regarding an overall death rate. The fact is if too many of us get it at once (which is what is happening with covid, and doesnt happen with the flu because we are not a naive population when it comes to the flu) it will overwhelm the nhs.

Meaning there will be more deaths because patients wont be able to receive appropriate care. If, when the disease has settled and becomes part of society the way the flu has, that has no bearing on what the death rate is now as it burns through a population with no immunity.

people with other illnesses (heart attacks, strokes, car accidents) will die unnecessarily, because adequate care will not be available. People will die of other diseases, like cancer (because it wont be detected early enough) or asthma/diabetes (as it wont be able to be managed as well as it previously was). These are just a few examples, not even a drop in the ocean.

Are you honestly still saying that the flu is worse?

@TheDailyCarbuncle we don't have immunity to bubonic plague either.

But we do have antibiotics now which, if they are administered quickly enough, will prevent you dying.

In the past, the best we could do was to isolate when plague came to a village or city. Now we have medical interventions.

With flu, we now have a vaccine. But even that can go wrong - look at swine flu. That crept up and there was no vaccine for a while.

So this will continue until we get either a treatment, immunity in some people that breaks the chain or a vaccine against it. That's the way of a new disease (or a centuries old one in the case of plague). But plague, which killed 40-60% of populations at it's height, even without immunity for anyone, still didn't kill everyone. Otherwise you and I wouldn't be here. Why was that? Why did some people get it and survive? Why did some people not get it at all?

it'll be the same with this. Some won't get it, some will get it more than once, some will die, some will survive with or without immunity. All you can do is try and that's all the medical people can do. The alternative is to either carry on and take your chance or curl up in a corner.

I don't think people do get it @whatdayisitanotherquestions, I think many people genuinely believe that isolation will mean their loved ones will never get it.

blu

Because it has many similarities.
HTH

It probably wouldn't cope. Because the government has left the country totally vulnerable and without any sort of disaster planning

Yes you’re completely right, the government completely failed to plan to this or respond to it as soon as they knew what was coming.
But the only relevant point is that if we didn’t take these measures, regardless of what the overall death rate turns out to be, is that the NHS wouldn’t cope. So not only those with CV19 dying, but also those with other conditions who could no longer access healthcare.
That’s why we’re doing it, and that’s why it is worthwhile.

But most of you on this forum are DESPERATE for things to be dreadful, and awful, and for people to be dropping dead left, right and centre. What the fuck is wrong with you? I was lambasted in a simialr vein when I said that this would go on for up to 2 years.... it is not desperation or wishing peolpe dead. It is a hard dose of realism. Getting my head round the possibilities and not living in a land of rainbow flavoured unicorns!

'Worthwhile' is a stretch when other people die as a result isn't it @HoffiCoffi13?

If we tested and traced every case from the start, there would be no need for most of this

yes, I agree with this.

I was reading an NHS document on the 2002 SARS outbreak which says 'if a similar virus occurred in the future, the UK should be able to contain it'

And yes - we should have, but the power of a pandemic was grossly underestimated by the governments and the people. In the NHS, we were being briefed on this mid January and advised to get in extra PPE. Staff are still going without this, and some staff are now dying as a result.

I think many people genuinely believe that isolation will mean their loved ones will never get it.

Do you see anyone saying that here?