If CV turns out to be less deadly than flu...

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

do you think you will still feel the restrictions were worth it?

Just asking out of curiosity really.

www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Flu killed 1692 people over 2018/2019. It had a whole year to do that.

I don't think it's a fair comparison when one is far more contagious than the other and the medical world know very little about one compared to the other.

America are expecting 200,000 deaths from covid19 as I understand it. That's a lot more than 23,000

In the UK.

The death rate is based on number of people tested not number of people infected

And? What's your point?

The death rate also doesn't include most who are dying from it outside hospital.

@TheDailyCarbuncle you're not dicussing facts and figures, you're trying to argue its less severe than flu, which based on current data, literally no scientist or expert believes. That's sowing discontent - 'but would it be worth it'. I'm rolling my eyes almost out of my head.

They are expecting 200,000 deaths @HRH2020. I'm asking, what if that doesn't happen?

Yes it will mean the restrictions have worked very well.

How it compares to flu long term isn't the point. It's that right now it's sweeping the world and there aren't enough equipment or staff to deal with it if we just carryon letting it spread. There will be vast numbers during all at once. Would that be a good idea? Yes, lots of people die from flu, but there is a vaccination and we have enough historical beds to deal with it (mostly) And we're geared up to cope with those deaths with sufficient mortuary spaces, undertakers etc.

The current pandemic will be overwhelming and horrific if we don't flatten the curve. The curve is already flattened for flu.

What makes you think it won’t happen?

It’s crazy to question the restrictions if they lower the death rate. That is their purpose.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52006988

From the BBC article (above):

Until we know how many cases there have been, it is impossible to be certain of the death rate. At the moment the estimate is that around 1% of people infected with the virus die. But if there are large numbers of asymptomatic patients, the death rate could be lower.

Then it will be amazing and a tribute to the collective action to commit to social distancing and save lives.

Not everyone gets the flu at the same time.

It's not the actual illness,cas such, it's the number of people getting it all at once that is the problem.

Yes, staying in is worth it.

Why do people keep asking this crap?

OP, not everyone gets flu at the same time. If they did we would be in the exact same position we're in now and then it would have to be a flu we don't have a vaccine for.

You can't compare it.

Is it like the stages of grief to why we're still seeing these questions being asked? Denial etc

The average mortality rate of seasonal flu is 0.1%. That is also based on those who have made the statistics ie, those who have been tested presumably. Since the majority of people who have flu just stay at home until theyre better then that means the 0.1% stat is also skewed.

There is also usually a vaccine for seasonal flu.

So if on balance the death rate for covid is 0.1% and the death rate from isolating the whole country is 0.6% will it still be worth it?

It’s the fact that it’s new to the entire population that makes a difference.
The actual illness itself can be quite trivial, but that’s not the point.

I'm asking, what if that doesn't happen?

IF (unlikely) it doesn't happen then we thank fuck we put social distancing measures etc in place and that they worked.

Do you honestly think whole countries would close down and their economies go into freewill for flu?

Not read the whole thread

But the mortality rate for flu is 0.85% i believe, and lets not forget that the vast majority (like with CV) do not get diagnosed with flu. Current mortality rates for the UK are over 6%.

I don't really understand this question @starlightgazers:

Do you honestly think whole countries would close down and their economies go into freewill for flu?

OP, the hospitals are overflowing and running out of essential supplies. Elective surgery and almost all outpatient appointments have been cancelled to accommodate the extra patients, an unprecedented number of whom need critical care. Doctors are dying young. New field hospitals are being established in a matter of days.

In what way is this comparable to a normal flu season?

So if on balance the death rate for covid is 0.1%

Completely pointless question as the death rate is indisputably higher than that.

And yes, for all the vulnerable children and adults, I'd say it was worth it.

If large numbers of people get it at the same time the death rates skyrocket because of lack of resources. That’s the point of the lockdown. A low mortality rate could be a sign that the measures worked.
But as many people aren’t very bright they may well feel it wasn’t worth it.