If CV turns out to be less deadly than flu...

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

do you think you will still feel the restrictions were worth it?

Just asking out of curiosity really.

@TinklyLittleLaugh

If CV is allowed to rip through the population as this plans suggests, you’d have to test every carer every day, and have a near immediate result, to check they didn’t have it before they did their work. Totally impractical and impossible at the moment.

Gloves worn by a CV-infected carer would hardly protect the vulnerable person! I’m sure carers could go some way to reducing risk by wearing masks etc, but with a population riddled with CV, it’s going to be impossible to keep the most vulnerable shielded.

Finally, those who are young and fit and with no underlying conditions may be in good shape to fight off the illness, but anyone over 50 is at a reasonable degree of risk. With it ripping through the country, massive numbers would still die.

I think everyone struggles with the fact that yes it's probably very similar to flu except that there is no immunity yet so we're all getting hit with it at the same time. THAT is the problem and why we need extra hospital spaces and that we need more intensive care spaces and that there will be more deaths. The same would probably happen with flu if it was new and the poorly weren't already vaccinated and if a lot of the population didn't already have some immunity. It is impossible to directly compare the things tho because we already have immunity. The people dying now of COVID 19 may have also died if there was a new flu in front of them.
Despite all of this though I do think the measures will be completely worth it as it will save some lives if the NHS isn't overwhelmed and if they can postpone some of us getting it until we know more or until there's a vaccine then that's great. It will still probably kill some of the vulnerable off every year but then so will flu.

I live in the New York area. The number of cases jumped 14 percent in one day between yesterday and today to 75,000 cases for NY state. It has now killed more people in New York than September 11 did. New York City alone has 40,900 people infected with the disease and close to a thousand dead. This is no joke.

I am with you OP. I think there is a great risk that the deaths and suffering in the short and longer term caused by lockdown, will outweigh the deaths and suffering saved by lockdown. Especially if we looked at years of life lost rather than number of lives.

I think many people are underestimating the deaths and hardships that lockdown will cause. They are also overestimating the extent to which lockdown will be able to save the vulnerable.

It will be interesting to see what the final outcome is in Sweden which has not implemented a lockdown (yet)
news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-hasnt-sweden-gone-into-lockdown-over-covid-19-pandemic-11966132

It will be interesting but you would have to compare it to another country with a population density of 64 people per square kilometre and with a comparable health service. We have a population density of 274 per square kilometre and an overstretched health service, so it would be no good to compare us with Sweden in terms of what makes for the better solution.

Notwithstanding Sweden’s different circumstances, I fear they have made a catastrophic misjudgment. Their deaths per million are running a day or so behind the UK, and their restrictions are pretty lacklustre.

Sweden does still have urban centres, in particular Stockholm, that can facilitate spread, and it’s also worth pointing out that the sparsely populated north was devastated in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic

As we’ve seen time and time again over the past weeks, there is a significant lag between taking firm action and reaching a peak. That action has to be taken before things get too bad (we arguably left it too late by locking down when we had 335 deaths - we now have around 1,800).... Had we locked down on Monday (which is roughly where Sweden is now) the impact would likely be catastrophic!

The issue with Sweden is that people just assume it’s being sensible and reasonable, because it’s Sweden. Sweden is regarded by the world as some kind of utopia - this puts it at a unique risk in this situation. Any other country would be lambasted if it did something similar.

Agree with Derby and Four. Very good points.

Germany would be a better country to look to with its approach to testing.

I think many people are underestimating the deaths and hardships that lockdown will cause. They are also overestimating the extent to which lockdown will be able to save the vulnerable.

Lower pollution levels will save some lives. Less car journeys will mean less accidents, saving some lives. Not straightforward.

I agree. There are some estimates that the lockdown may save more lives from reduced air pollution than from preventing infection.

www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2020/03/11/coronavirus-lockdown-may-save-more-lives-from-pollution-and-climate-than-from-virus/

Haven't read the full thread, but the difference is that there is a vaccine against flu. There is no vaccine against cv-19.

So, if you have underlying health conditions you risk your life. With flu, you just get the vaccine.

I also haven't seen flu overwhelming the NHS in the same way that CV will

The idea that we might find ourselves saving so many people from the better air quality resulting from the lockdown is amazing. I hope this severe learning curve in working from home and making international business work without international travel emerge out the other side of this pandemic. That and handwashing.

Apparently air quality in both China and Italy has already improved by between 30- 40%.

Can't remember where I saw this a few days ago.

There is criticism within Sweden of their government's stance. The Guardian.

Hope you're doing okay now, @Amymayapple

Just came on to say I have started a thread about online events if you want to join:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3868104-Feeling-isolated-Lets-share-links-to-online-events

@goingoverground thank you for asking. I am not doing great. Anxiety/depression runs in my family. My mental health has taken such a sharp downward turn.

I am not actively suicidal, but constantly thinking "I don't want to live, I can't do this for three more weeks, and thinking of bad situations from my past" and crying for hours every day

I have set up links to try to help me - emailing samaritans, trying to write my feelings out.

Thank you for asking

Amymayappl - I am sorry you are feeling so low - it is a dreadful place to be.

I too am struggling as OH recently died, so the normal grief process is being compounded by the absence of contact with friends and family - and I am here on my own.

The dwelling on bad situations from the past is a challenge because they pop unbidden into the mind. There were so many bad things that happened to OH over the years of his illness that it is hard not to dwell on them - I do employ a very simple - and seemingly silly - technique when this happens. It uses imagination - I imagine the thought being packed onto a train and watch it drive over the horizon. Sounds bonkers - but I find it helps - puts me more in control. Anything is worth a try when such thoughts get a grip.

Hope you find your own way through this; and wishing you well.

@mischance thank you for sharing, we can all help each other through. I send you a massive hug about your OH. I totally understand. I lost some one to tragic circumstances two years ago, and I think that I am still grieving aswell.

I send you such a hug and love about your OH aswell, it is so important to come on here and talk about it. ❤️❤️❤️❤️. Keep going. You are not alone.

Maybe we should start up a specific thread

Sorry you're still struggling, @Amymayapple It's tough being away from your friends and support at such a difficult time.

Have you chatted to people on the positive mental health thread here?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3858840-The-positive-mental-health-thread-part-4

It looks like quite a few people on the online events thread I started are planning to watch the National Theatre play screening at 7pm tonight. It's a comedy with James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors. Maybe you'd like to watch it too and join us on the thread for a discussion afterwards?