If CV turns out to be less deadly than flu...

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

do you think you will still feel the restrictions were worth it?

Just asking out of curiosity really.

Ok sure it's been mentioned but even if it wasn't as deadly as flu we can't have a virus rampaging that's causing death all at the same time when health systems can't cope.

@Amymayapple

Yes - hundreds each day in the UK. 259 one day.

There has been more than 14 in Ireland!

I agree with OP that rather than a UK wide lockdown we should:
Test and isolate actual and suspected cases of the virus
Quarantine high areas of infections until the rates of infection reduce

AND

Invite the vulnerable to self isolate with added support from gov in terms of resources and care within the community - ie they get extra incentives to self isolate such as financial support and assistance from caters if required (people to go get food, medicine, speak to them on the phone etc)

This country wide lockdown is unsustainable and risks causing other issues if it goes on too long. Not just economic. Also, mental health issues, stress, domestic abuse and deterioration in physical health. The vast majority do not have exercise equipment at home. The majority rely on their every day routines to get physical exercise and stay healthy. Now that we are all confined to the house we are moving about less, eating more, and getting less vitamin D from being outside. I would guess that all that is going to contribute to weakened immune systems the longer it goes on which surely makes even the previously healthy vulnerable to the virus and more likely to need medical support.

Yes, because so many countries would destroy the economy and impose restrictions not seen in about 70 years.. For shits and giggles. Don't be fucking ridiculous. Chances are it's worse than they say!

The mortality rate is based off the number of people tested, no the number of people actually infected

I am no expert but I believe you are incorrect there OP. The mortality rate is based on the number of people infected which is why it is still under discussion. The deaths among people who have actually tested positive are used to calculate the case fatality rate which is different. No one claims the case fatality rate is the mortality rate.

@Amymayapple

I'll think you'll find there have been 54 deaths in ROI and they have been increasing rapidly. Bit of a difference from 14 ....

The majority rely on their every day routines to get physical exercise and stay healthy. Now that we are all confined to the house we are moving about less, eating more, and getting less vitamin D from being outside.

If people who are healthy are sat on their asses instead of working out at home, that's on them and, as for eating too much, where are you shopping, I didn't even get my order of rice in my last delivery?

People can still go outside and exercise.

You are boring. Find something worthwhile to do.

Test and isolate actual and suspected cases of the virus
Quarantine high areas of infections until the rates of infection reduce

It is too late to do that, the community spread is too wide. if that was possible, the WHO would advise that. They are not. For a bloody good reason.

@TheDailyCarbuncle

Have you heard the saying...

Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt

To Candycane

@Amymayapple

Where did you get the number 14 from?

Where did you get the number 14 from?

Is it all the positive thinking?

Not just economic. Also, mental health issues, stress, domestic abuse and deterioration in physical health

Yes, all that is terrible. But nothing compared to a pandemic that could wipe a large chunk of us out given the chance.

I was thinking wishful thinking.

The strategy she suggests should have been used at the time when the focus was only on testing people who had come back from an infected area overseas or if they'd had direct contact with a confirmed case.

It took the government too long to accept that the UK was itself an infected country.

Seriously - most of us now have a bit of extra time one our hands. Why not use it wisely and try to educate yourselves one what is happening (as in read proper sources, not the daily mail) and see how you could perhaps help others struggling with abuse/ MH issues rather than spout crap and plan to protest

It took the government too long to accept that the UK was itself an infected country

It did, but even then, a big chunk of people did not listen, take it seriously and follow guidelines.

Yes, all that is terrible. But nothing compared to a pandemic that could wipe a large chunk of us out given the chance

An interestingly blithe write-off of MH problems there.

It has been interesting this week to see how little concern there really is for people who struggle with MH issues.

I suspect at least a few of the people writing off MH problems have also at some point said #bekind or have posted something on social media about mental health.

There are many people who would not take it upon themselves to work out in that way, and going about their daily business was their way of getting exercise. Cut that away and those people are unlikely to suddenly take to indoor workouts and the prolonged lack of physical activity is going to deteriorate their physical health. The mental health issues caused by this situation are also likely to take their toll on physical health. As you say, staple products are missing (again caused by the lockdown) and so people are more likely to rely on convenience high carb foods. Re vitamin D - many people don’t have a garden, and are only allowed out once a day.
For a large majority I think this lockdown will impact their physical health and potentially make their bodies less able to fight the virus if it goes on too long. It would be interesting to see what the scientists think of that variable in predicting rates of serious cases.

If it does turn out that way, it will because we have done the right things and we will have been fortunate - which is not a wholly appropriate word- because it could have been so much worse.

1 person with CV infects 59000 people.

1 person with flu infects 14 people.

IF it turns out to be less deadly it will be BECAUSE of the measures we took.

If CV turns out less deadly, do you think we will regret that we bothered staying in to save lives and sacrificed our economy, you know when we could have just let it kill several hundred thousand, cos like flu does anyway. FFS.

Can I add, that 15% of people with CV will end up with reduced lung capacity. They may never be running marathons again. And I am talking about anyone, any age, any fitness. Take away 20-30% lung capacity and you won't be playing netball in your local team.

Italy has had almost 1000 deaths per day from this virus. Other countries are headed the same way. You don't see that from regular flu.

We won't know actual numbers until this is all over, so perhaps keep your questions for that point.

The deaths per day will also grow exponentially without mitigating measures. Let's just say for example that a hypothetical infection at a hypothetical time caused a death rate doubling every day. You would see something like this, please correct me if I am wrong..

Oct 1st 10 die
Oct 2nd 20 die
Oct 3rd 40 die
Oct 4th 80 die
5th 160 die
6th 320 die
7th 640 die
8th 1280 die
9th 2560 die
10th 5120 die
11th 10, 240 die
12th 20, 480 die
13th 40, 960 die
14th 81, 920 die

Quite a fortnight! Now if this is seeming to double every three days you can see how it might go. We go from seemingly small numbers and small increases to astronomical ones in a very short time. So mentioning numbers of deaths at early stages is not very meaningful out of context.

You don't give people much credit candy cane. For all we know, the boredom of lock down might have inspired a whole bunch of desk bound/ couch bound individuals to start up exercise that otherwise wouldn't and I'm sure anyone who works out regularly will keep it up in lockdown. And I have heard as many people say their mental health has improved with the change of pace and in any case, I'm sure mental health suffering would increase if we saw the level of deaths that were predicted without intervention. That level of mass grieving wouldn't be without consequence.