If CV turns out to be less deadly than flu...

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

do you think you will still feel the restrictions were worth it?

Just asking out of curiosity really.

Every 40 seconds someone somewhere in the world commits suicide and that will definitely increase now.

But will it increase more under lockdown or with millions of people who will die worldwide within a year if no interventions are made?

There are no options without further misery in a pandemic.

@FourTeaFallOut

Exactly. This is simply a thoroughly shit situation and I think the government are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

I think either scenario would be damaging to mental health. Anxiety will go through the roof whatever the strategy.

Whatever decisions are made, the welfare of people with MH issues should be taken into account.

I am three weeks in, and my mental health has taken a sharon downward turn.

Too much time to think makes me think of traumatic times from the past. I cried for hours and hours today. I feel awful. Isolation is not good for us.

*sharp

I really feel the worst I have felt in a long time mentally. Going over and over traumas from the past and not being able to stop crying. I need to try to get a support group in place - friends online that I can tell when I feel bad

Isolation is terrible for our mental health

The models aim for the least worst option. There are SO many variables it's impossible to predict with any real certainty what could've happened. A slight change in the infection rate or death rate could lead to completely different outcomes.

We have to hope that the data the government has is correct.

There will be people who die as a consequence of isolation. We just hope that isolation deaths + covid19 deaths is a lower figure than covid19 deaths with no isolation.

What about people who die from mental health issues in isolation?

I honestly felt suicidal today.

What about people who die from mental health issues in isolation?

I hear you, and am sorry you feel so down, but I don't see an alternative to the measures we are currently under.

Have you tried the samaritans? Or the MH boards? There will be people out there who will be trying to help

What about people who die from mental health issues in isolation?

I imagine the measures that are being taken are based on the probability that fewer people will die of mental health issues in isolation than would die if CV19 was allowed to rampage through the population unchecked.
I believe the figures are something like 500,000 CV deaths if no measures taken, reducing to something more like 20,000 with isolation measures in place. Obviously just projections though.

@Amymayapple I agree a thousand times over. You really are not alone.

Hello Amymayapple, we are really sorry to hear you are feeling this way. Life is hard enough for many without being isolated from those we love and trust.

We hope you don't mind, but when these threads are flagged up to us we usually add a link to our Mental Health resources.
You can also go to the Samaritans website, or email them on [email protected]. Support from other Mumsnetters is great and we really hope you will be able to take some comfort from your fellow posters, but as other MNers will tell you, it's really a good idea to seek RL help and support as well.

We also like to remind everyone that, although we're awed daily by the astonishing support our members give each other through life's trickier twists and turns, we'd always caution anyone never to give more of themselves to another poster, emotionally or financially, than they can afford to spare.

We very much hope things will look brighter soon Amymayapple

Sorry you're struggling, @Amymayapple. There are plenty of people on here who can help support you through lockdown by chatting. You said too much time is giving you too much time to think. What do you enjoy doing in normal life that stops that happening? There are lots of things going on online now that can't happen in real life at the moment - gigs, concerts, plays, pub quizzes, lectures, exercise classes. Here's a couple:

www.southbankcentre.co.uk/blog
www.goosesquizzes.com/

Ooh thanks for the table quiz @goingoverground. I will do that. Are there gigs and lectures online?

Where are they , if you could share a link if you have it please

Thank you @goingoverground for being nice . It means alot

@esjee I really don't understand your attitude. It's really up to the OP what she posts about. It is her forum as much as yours. You sound so angry. Why does her post warrant such a flippant, nasty response. If you're sick of 'this bollocks', don't read it. Or you explain properly why you don't agree.

Most of the places I am on the mailing list for are going online, @Amymayapple - concert halls, museums, galleries, public university lectures (not just teaching), comedy. Audible has free online books. If you google coronavirus online lecture/gig/concert/comedy/pub quiz etc you'll find stuff. TedTalks are always there, if you enjoy lectures, it's worth a look. Why don't you start a thread for people to post links to the best online events? Here are some articles with pointers to start you off tonight:

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/27/its-friday-night-as-britons-head-to-the-pub-theatre-or-a-gig-online
www.telegraph.co.uk/music/what-to-listen-to/events-concerts-cinema-festivals-not-cancelled-coronavirus/
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lockdown-the-best-gigs-art-dance-and-classical-concerts-to-stream-at-home-pm82p5fbw

Take care. Hope you feel a bit better tomorrow.

@goingoverground

What a lovely, thoughtful post - I'm sure it will help many .

Keep strong everyone, things are tough, but so can we be.

Yeah, the flu. Remember how every year they have to turn Birmingham NEC into a hospital and airports into morgues. It’s just like that. Completely the same.

Quite.

gamerchick do you understand how vaccines work? Spoiler, they're based on immunity

Or alternatively they'll find an effective treatment sooner. They're going into clinical trials now for four already existing drugs which show promise in treating this - so no need to go through earlier steps of animal testing etc.

We need to be careful predicting how many numbers each person infects. That 59,000 is based on every contact being a new contact. In very big cities, like London, Paris, New York, people will come into contact with many different people every day which is why numbers tend to be larger in tourist or large cities. However, for lots of us that us not the case- we have a much narrower range of contacts, social groups and quite set routines so the numbers are much smaller. This is why many doubt Neil Ferguson's figures will be accurate. There is a goid article about it which I will see if I can find.

good, not goid

In terms of a 'solution' I would like to see an actual calculation, with real data, of how many lives will really be saved by the measures, vs how many lives will be lost due to the measures.

How do you suggest we arrive at such a calculation? What are the parameters you're considering?

If the restrictions have resulted in just one life saved then yes, I think it is worth it.

@LuluJakey1 You're correct that R0 is a theoretical number, the average number that 1 infectious person infects in a homogenous population where no one is immune and everyone behaves in the same way, has the same number of contacts and no one enters nor leaves the population. In reality, children behave differently from adults, people in cities will have more contacts than those who live remotely, people live in different sized households (you are most likely to infect people you live with), the means of transmission will affect who you infect. Those are things that we have data on so can be factored into models.