If CV turns out to be less deadly than flu...

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

do you think you will still feel the restrictions were worth it?

Just asking out of curiosity really.

An interestingly blithe write-off of MH problems there

Nope - I suffer from MH issues myself, they have been severe in the past, and MH killed my DM. I have campaigned for extra MH provision (with little success).

I would still rather live in isolation with MH issues than die a horrible death from SARS or sepsis though.

What is your solution then? Given the scale and threat of the current pandemic I do not see an alternative to the current conditions imposed.

What is you

*posted by mistake before editing but hopefully the gist is still there

I suspect at least a few of the people writing off MH problems have also at some point said #bekind or have posted something on social media about mental health

Stop making assumptions on sod all evidence.

MH issues are, or should be, a huge concern. But a pandemic is a much bigger threat to overall health.

To the people concerned about MH on here - are you actually doing something to help those affected - volunteering for the samaritans, as a listening ear in your community etc?

Worldometer states 19% of closed cases have resulted in death. That will, of course, not be a true reflection due to ongoing case and lack of testing, but I would say that given the world wide lockdown measures this is not comparable to flu. It is also an ADDED strain on health services with flu and other illnesses going on as normal. I'm not entirely sure why people can't understand that.

Fourtea, you’re assuming most people, who
would not ordinarily exercise, will realise the impact of the loss of their daily routine on their physical heath. They won’t. And the question is - will this deterioration make people who would have fought off the virus easily more susceptible to serious illness. I’m really interested by the fact that the gov advice doesn’t in any way cover the importance of us all staying healthy through this. They should be encouraging people to still go out to exercise too (while maintaining social distance). I know they permit it but there’s a lot of public misunderstanding of the importance of this, not least because there appears to be a strong link between a person’s health and how their body fights the virus.

I’m really interested by the fact that the gov advice doesn’t in any way cover the importance of us all staying healthy through this

I do agree they could do more in this regard but with so many people pitching a hissy fit about their lack of freedom, telling people what to do when in their home might have been an active decision.

I don’t think they should order people to stay healthy. I just think they should give some tips and guidance. And I think they should emphasise the importance of going outside to exercise. As long as people maintain physical distance why shouldn’t they go for a walk or run?

Neil Ferguson estimated that 50-100,000 may die from BSE in cattle. The sheep stuff was on top of it. So yes, he got it totally wrong. Obviously forecasting is full or errors but the ‘half a million will die’ is being treated as fact when it simply isn’t. The disease is obviously serious but there needs to be a sense of proportion and that is getting drowned in hysteria

I think possibly that the cavalier approach by many might be to do with this, the fact that the predicted high levels of deaths did not materialise with bse and swine flu. But what we have with COVID 19 which really is vastly different, are the testimonies from frontline medical staff all around the world, and the experience of the countries "ahead" of us in terms of time.

Also, I don't think that the official line talking about a 3 week review of lockdown and then being hopeful about a phased return to normal are showing "hysteria". The 3 weeks is to do with the fact that within that time any new cases should be apparent and therefore the spread measurable - on the basis that social distancing will have drastically reduced infection if everyone buys into it and practices social distancing - and one problem is that not everyone is buying into it. The other problem is that this message is being lost amidst the concerns about loss of human rights and fears about police state and martial law and that some people feel they need a social life. I really think that we need to give this 3 week (or 6 week in France) period the best chance.

No, I agree. Anyone who isn't being shielded could do that. In fact, we get regular texts about staying in touch with people and getting outside in a private garden. They could do the same for every one.

@starlightgazers

I'm sorry you've had to cope with so much, that sounds so painful.

I want to echo your post, asking those PPs who are bleating about MH issues on here whether they would be prepared to do anything to help. Because this is definitely a really hard time for those with MH problems, especially those who are living alone.

My DB is very much in that position. He has serious MH issues. (So do my DSis and I, PTSD due to childhood SA), but we've managed to get our shit together and we have happy family lives. (Our DDs of 11 and 8 are adopted, so it's not without challenges but that's for another thread.)

My DB can't cope with life at all and is very lonely and has always struggled socially. He's for that reason always been very dependent emotionally on my DM (he can be abusive to her too, so it's not particularly healthy), but now she has to self-isolate, aa she's 80 years old now. He has no friends so is alone all day and my DM has told me that he isn't coping well.

But it's right that she should isolate from him. She catches every infection going round and my DB's hygiene isn't good. This is a time when a strategy needs to be found to help people in his position; he has a social worker now, so hopefully they will assist in some way.

Another thread whereby a prediction of what most likely will happen if no action is taken is seen as being wrong when the prediction doesn't come true BECAUSE ACTION WAS TAKEN

@midgebabe

Another thread whereby a prediction of what most likely will happen if no action is taken is seen as being wrong when the prediction doesn't come true BECAUSE ACTION WAS TAKEN

^This 100%. I don't understand why it's so difficult for some PPs to see that.

I find it impossible to look at Spain and Italy and think, oh ffs it’s just the flu everyone needs to calm down, tbh

It's really hard to know because so much of our information is filtered through media portrayal. Maybe if the media reported on every flu hospitalisation and death the way they are about COVID-19, we'd all be feeling much, much more worried about the flu? Especially if there was no vaccine for the vulnerable.

But we’ll never know how many people would have died if the restrictions were never put in place
And we’ll never have a complete picture unless the whole country is tested

Yes I think weirdly this thread also shows that we have become complacent about the flu - because to be honest the flu isnt just the flu its actually a pretty big killer.

Indeed respiratory infections is historically the 6th largest killer per year (around 2 million deaths a year)

Of course, OP. Every government in the world just decided to crash the world economy and create mass panic for no reason. All perfectly logical.

OR

They know something more about the figures and complexities than an armchair commentator like you.

I mean, I know which one I would pick. Jesus, now is not the time for conspiracy theory. People are losing family members. Don’t be a dick.

@Mittens030869 - thank you. for you too, I am sorry to hear about your DB, but pleased to hear you have overcome your own MH battles.

It's a difficult time, but it's not fair for others to come on here and point their figures at others saying they are disregarding MH issues. I get they are a huge issue, I get isolation may exacerbate issues in some. I also think though that the time of work and slower pace of life will benefit some.

It is also awful that some will be trapped with their abusive partners/ parents.

But seriously - what is the alternative? Mass death - because in turn, that would serve to increase MH and abuse rates too, possibly for generations.

If I had the time and my own MH was strong enough, I'd be seriously looking into starting some sort of group on SM or similar for those suffering in such a way.

But we’ll never know how many people would have died if the restrictions were never put in place

Eventually, we'll have a very good idea. But is no one seeing the UK daily death rates and realising how high they are going to get over the next few days? Because these rates are from before the restrictions were put in place, without measures in place they would have increased indefinitely. The science tells us that. Why is that not enough for some?

I know what you're saying but in answer to your question: because if a lack of vaccinations and how little we know about it, no, I won't have minded this reaction to it even if it turns out to be less deadly than flu.

think we're misunderstanding each other.

I think you are misunderstanding a whole lot.

It's really hard to know because so much of our information is filtered through media portrayal. Maybe if the media reported on every flu hospitalisation and death the way they are about COVID-19, we'd all be feeling much, much more worried about the flu? Especially if there was no vaccine for the vulnerable.

Even in a bad year, the flu doesn’t cause anything like the pressure on the NHS that CV has caused already... and that’s with us being locked down! They don’t convert the Excel into a 4,000 hospital and scramble for 1,000s if extra ventilators every winter, and that’s even when we let flu rip through the population without even a single public info poster to remind us to wash our hands!

@starlightgazers

I quite agree. People with MH issues wouldn't get any help at all. NHS and Social Care services are already overstretched.

Besides, there have already been 1,400 deaths, and there are thousands more in hospital. I think it was misguided to say that most people would have mild symptoms. According to BBC News today, there are a lot of young and healthy people who have been admitted into hospital.

I think it was misguided to say that most people would have mild symptoms. According to BBC News today, there are a lot of young and healthy people who have been admitted into hospital

The health trust I work for has seen far more young people than you ever would with flu. Sepsis is a massive risk. People need to stop thinking this virus can't affect them because they are young and fit.

People get flu over a number of months. We're expecting a "surge" over a few weeks that will mean stretching critical care capacity in our hospitals. Not once in my time working in a hospital have we had to decide which patient gets the ventilator and which dies yet we're expecting that despite increasing capacity 4 times our normal it won't be enough. Not vaguely comparable to the picture you're painting.

We've also never ordered additional mortuary capacity. We're not doing this for fun