Lockdown over sooner than we think - positive outlooks

[oldbeforem]

I keep reading threads about this lasting 6 - 18 months.

I have had an operation cancelled with no date for it to be rebooked.

I need to think positively and believe that this will be over sooner than we think!

Anyone agree?

“Yep. Some of the stuff I've read today about his handling of the BSE crisis has shocked me. Plus the model he's using for CV has never been peer-tested, which is troubling”

This is appalling. How does this man have this much power? Am I missing something?

When might we reasonably expect flights to be operational again? I need to visit someone abroad and cant see when I will see her next.

Your issue isn't flights. Its when other countries relax entry requirement and when you can get travel insurance. Thats dependant on how this pans out in other countries more than what happens here.

The countries we need to be watching is Germany and Sweden. Sweden is ignoring Neil Ferguson.

Do people realise that many people will die alone, struggling for each breathe? Or worse, they will be found to have passed with no one with them, in their final moments? Is this what people think is acceptable because they’re old and would likely have died soon anyway? What a terrible world we live in.

@Mumlove5 and Germany is doing far better than we are.

We will not be having several months of lockdown, don't worry 💐🙂

The German population have been far more compliant with social distancing. And they have a far superior health system.

LadyAnnNeville I'm not with you, which people think that?

@WhatWouldYouDoWhatWouldJesusDo My friends ds is in Japan and he's just posted a video ((pretty sure he's in Wuhan))

Wuhan is in China.

@creaturcomforts, which people think what? Posters upthread commented on older people of a certain age will likely die anyway, in a year or so.

ScarlettBlaize Geography never was my strong point

Either ways he's teaching over there and going off his video updates I'd say life is easing back to normal. If we can do the same in the UK there's no reason the same can't happen here.

It's not Neil Ferguson personally advising the government. It's his group at Imperial. They genuinely are experts at this kind of modelling.

As I understand it, he said that the BSE crisis could be very bad indeed if BSE spread to sheep. In the end it didn't spread to sheep so wasn't as bad as it could have been. So...?

I honestly don’t see how the country and people could cope with a total lockdown for 6 months. I don’t think schools will go back until September! I think international travel will take a while to start, could again be September. I’m not sure theatres and cinemas will open. I think the main reason for lockdown is to enable NHS to cope, the virus is going to be around for a long time, potentially forever depending on vaccines. Saying that and despite the government getting caught over this, I do believe that they want a certain amount of natural immunity to happen, so they want hospitals to be able to cope with the very ill people, and they probably do want the fit and healthy to get mild cases of it, and to them become immune. The antibody test is going to be crucial, so they can see the amount of the general population that has become immune.

(I mean obviously he personally is involved, but it's not like the government just picked a random bloke off Twitter and went 'You are now solely in charge of our pandemic response strategy!')

I’m sure millions have had Covid. It’s been circulating since Christmas... which means the death rate is substantially lower than what it is.
We need antibody tests ASAP. I heard they began last week according to Oxford.

The government shouldn’t put all their eggs into one basket.

I need to think positively and believe that this will be over sooner than we think!

Anyone agree?

I hope you are right, but fear that you are wildly optimistic.

I'm in lockdown in Europe. Where I am the current detected infection rate is between 200 and 400 confirmed cases per 100,000 population, varying by region. Note, these are the people that have had a confirmed diagnosis - there are bound to be others yet to be tested and detected.

If that is also the rate in the UK, then there are currently potentially somewhere between 1.2 million and 2.4 million people already infected. But because the UK has so far only tested 127,000 people there are only 17,000 confirmed cases. This is completely out of kilter with the rest of Europe, despite what Gove tried to claim this afternoon.

The UK appears to be a couple of weeks behind Europe in the spread of the virus. If there really are a million (or even more) infected people walking around in the UK completely oblivious to the fact that they are infected and can unwittingly be spreading the virus to others, then coming out of the current situation within a matter of weeks is not going to be possible.

with a mentally ill adult stepdaughter we've been practically under a lockdown for several years anyhow. Couldn't even go shopping without being phoned up and screamed at, so in essence not much has changed!

“But because the UK has so far only tested 127,000 people there are only 17,000 confirmed cases. This is completely out of kilter with the rest of Europe, despite what Gove tried to claim this afternoon.”

Those are cases confirmed. We need antibody tests to see who has already had it, which is in the millions.

@Saladmakesmesad no worries, I really hope it's the same for you. A good moisturiser is needed as my skin was very dry under the cast...

Good luck :)

I also think early June. We cannot (and shouldn't) keep this going for longer that that, the economic and social consequences would be enormous forever, not just the near future.

I think what we're doing for the next few weeks to allow the NHS to increase beds, buy respirators and spread things out a bit is a great idea, but we can't keep doing it forever.

We will, for a long time, instinctively avoid passing strangers closely in the street, avoid public transport, avoid pubs and cinemas where strangers sit close to each other. Businesses will realise that they don't need such big offices, because they can make it work with a high proportion of staff working from home. We will realise that it's quicker, cheaper, easier, to FaceTime relatives, rather than travel to visit.

Absolute bollocks. Me and everyone I know is clamouring to see their family, go to the pub, have a party and get back to the office once this is all over. All the virtual screen stuff is never a true replacement of the real thing, otherwise this would be a doddle and no-one would be complaining.

Some people can't WFH no matter how hard they try - I've never had a productive day at home because I have no motivation, and associate home with relaxing. I love being in the office for the social side. Skyping my grandma isn't the same as flying over, enjoying a meal and a drink and a laugh with them or going to the theatre. People like to go out and drink coffee and be sociable. I think we'll dive straight back into old life with a vengeance.

Neil Ferguson is going out on a limb. He wasn't speaking in his official capacity when he made the comments to the press.
Others are predicting a different trajectory where we start to peak in the next 7-10 days and then begin coming back down the curve.
There's an interesting piece in the NYT that essentially says what ever you do this is having a finite season infections are not climbing as fast in other countries, look at Iran's figures, it's too early to say if that is true here after 2 days of data.
But the data and modelling that is gathering momentum debunks Ferguson and his missguided approach to handling other data predictions.
The trouble is being under prepared would have been catastrophic. Being over prepared would be costly we need to be well prepared and only time will tell if we are.
What's becoming clearer as well is the Chinese haven't been as open about this as the WHO said they were in January.

@Devlesko
Could I ask where you got your facts and figures from please? I’ve been looking at these updates, which are stating just a few cases and all from people travelling in to China and not originating there. I just want to know if they are not reporting on here correctly?

I'm not saying that it'll stay like it is now. I'm saying that our return to normal won't be the same normal we had before. I'm saying that saying goodbye to the old normal is making now feel worse than it is, in and of itself, and there'll be parts of it we'll keep because they'll work better for us.