Lockdown over sooner than we think - positive outlooks

[oldbeforem]

I keep reading threads about this lasting 6 - 18 months.

I have had an operation cancelled with no date for it to be rebooked.

I need to think positively and believe that this will be over sooner than we think!

Anyone agree?

I think it's a matter of incremental improvements - things could be eased if new information becomes available, if they do clarify a test to confirm whether people have been infected (given that evidence seems to be around 50% of people with it have no symptoms) and whether they really are safe to move around more freely, which is not a given. Also event small improvements in treating the sickest and moving them from hospital could have a disproportionate impact.

I guess it is also possible we get to a point where the gov says 'We've got healthcare to as much capacity as it's going to get to and we can't keep everything shut down any longer, sorry'

Sadly, we may see some things proved by the US where some states aren't bothering with as many measures as others, and others aren't getting the help they need because Trump is a psychopath who'd rather millions died than help governors who don't grovel at his feet.

@Havanananana

It’s not hard to figure out. Majority of people have mild or asymptomatic symptoms. The virus transmits very easily. But this brings down the death rate substantially. Germany has a 0.05% death rate... because they are testing!!

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-infected-28-million-brits-21773925

Sorry, meant around 0.5%

I don't understand why they cancelled routine operations everywhere.
Some areas are hardly affected.

@Lunar567 even routine operations can go wrong and need an ICU bed - they can't risk it.

Most routine stuff has been cancelled in order to reduce contact with the virus and further spread though. Nothing will restart until the virus is out of the equation.

Bluntess100 People will be told to go back to work. Schools will be open for those who can’t work from home. But all social and hospitality venues will remain closed and social distancing will remain in place.

This is what's really bothering me. If social distancing remains in place for 6 months, is it still going to include not meeting people outside of your household? I live alone so this is the bit I'm finding hardest - not socialising with ANYONE for months. There may be a particular person I'm already missing...

The problem, which a lot of people are forgetting, is its not just what we do here in the UK. It's also about what other countries do and how successful their suppression strategy is.

From the very beginning of measures in this country the fear has been if you suppress and then relax rules will there be a second wave?

This is personally why I'm of the mindset it's going to be a long drawn out, on off situation.

Not enough people are catching it to produce the level needed for herd immunity. Nor are we going to be able to completely suppress this.

Until we have a vaccine we are going to have an ongoing battle on this.

We can't as a nation close the borders completely for trade reasons: we import 40% of our food for starters. That means people crossing borders continually.

We could restrict entry from certain countries but we know from the experience of China that people worried about travel restrictions took long indirect routes to get around them.

We might be able to go down the route of contact tracing again but we are still establishing the levels of testing required to do that. And asymptomatic cases make this an issue. We are still some way off having the capability to achieve that because of the logistics involved.

We are between a rock and a hard place. Every country has to be a corona free zone. At the same time.

It's not about merely whether the UK can and will have lockdown for x number of weeks. It's also hugely dependent on what is happening elsewhere.

We might see things like certification of your covid-19 status before travelling. But this will take time to set up and administrate. That's the problem.

The plan to provide emergency packages to most in need has shown the lengthy waiting involve.

I wish it was as simple as switch the light switch on and off.

I'm focusing on dealing with the next 2 and a bit weeks till the lockdown review date - then I'll deal with what comes up next.*
Very wise me too .
Like someone else said some people are trying to say a few weeks others are saying a few months or longer who knows ? all we know is it's 3 weeks at the moment. At the the end of 3 weeks it may be extended and we'll have further threads speculating how long.

I'm looking to the end of the first 3 weeks. If I think about being at home with my 3 year old whilst trying to work at the same time for the next 11 weeks I think I'll crack up.

@Ghgtyhhd Good post.

2-3 months of lockdown, I suspect. The last three days of cases are quite promising in the U.K, already stable at around 2,500 new cases per day.

After 2-3 months (mid June?) we should have lots of tests and have built up hospital capacity. If we have infectivity down to 0.85 with the current lockdown, then I think we should also have very few cases by then.

London is an issue, though, with the tube still open and do many claiming to be essential workers (many of whom are not really). I suspect the London lockdown may need tweaking.

They may also release the lockdown regionally earlier, though that would mean somehow restricting travel.

I am guessing peak will be in April. There be less restrictions in June and then slowly we will return to normal with social distancing being a norm for 6 months.

So relieved to find some sanity and measured debate. The doom-mongerers out there really do seem to be relishing the bad news.
I don't have any wisdom to add to what has already been said.It does amaze me that more people don't understand that 'the government' can't just pay people's wages forever. An acquaintance (was a friend but her attitude disgusts me) works for the NHS part time in a wholly clerical capacity, nowhere near any patients, and no underlying illness doing a job that in other organisations wouldn't even exist anymore because paper filing and paper letter writing is becoming a redundant task. She only works two days a week so plenty of time to get shopping in, but using her NHS card to get priority slots. She has heard that others in the NHS are getting paid leave (rightly so as they are in the firing line of infection and have other health issues) and had requested it for herself ('if it's up for grabs' 🙁) I have tried to point out that unsustainable for people to get paid leave willy nilly but she thinks I am a mug for not finding a loophole to exploit....

Some more positive news to start the morning - bbc is reporting that some ucl and mercedes researchers are trialling a breathing aid which could help keep some patients out of intensive care.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52087002

You've totally missed the point. Lockdown isn't to eradicate the disease - that's not possible unless we literally bolt everyone in their rooms, even key workers, and don't let people buy food. We'd also have to completely shut the border for years while every other country has it. We will all get corona over the next year, or most of us. Lockdown is not to "Keep everyone safe". Lockdown, on and off, will spread out the infections so people have a hospital bed if they need one and we don't get it at the same time and have to queue in hospital car parks.

This is what people are missing time and time again. The lockdown has nothing to do with eradicating the disease, that's impossible to do until there's a vaccine. We are being locked down, socially distanced, etc, to stop the NHS collapsing under the pressure of treating patients and ending up like France – last week there wasn't a single bed available in any hospital anywhere in the country and people had to be transferred to Germany. Which is easy for them to do, as it involves just driving across the border, but difficult for us on our little island. We can't as easily airlift people out.

The fewer of us who get ill, the more the NHS can cope. It's that simple. Which is why I think things will ease off by mid-May because all the other winter nasties that fill up beds generally slack off at that time of year too. Infections will still continue, the NHS will just be in a better place to treat them.

To be fair lock down could eradicate the disease, but not this lock down, because people are still going to work, the supermarket etc, the type of lock down to eradicate it would mean no one leaving their house at all. They aren’t looking to eradicate, just control to ensure anyone who needs treatment gets it.

I also think people have to remember what normal life looks like, being able to fly, goong on holiday, spa or hen weekends, going to concerts, busy pubs, wedding receptions, parties, all these things, I think are the ones that will take up to six months to come back.

The rest, and primarily all other people working and the government cutting off funding to ensure they do, is likely what will be occurring more quickly, because we simply don’t have the money to not lift it, I’m not even sure we could borrow that much, there’s no magic money tree, we’d be bankrupt..

People in social. Hospitality, airlines, airports, these people may be facing several months off. Everyone else will need to get back to work in the next month or so, which will involve schools going back, even if just for folks who can’t work from home.

Also the additional capacity they have built, I suspect we could see all corona patients in those nightingale hospitals as far as they possibley can, and then normal hospitals going back to working normally too, so all routine operations required can be done.

So normal life likely won’t come back for up to six months, but normal life including all those things like flying, going to gigs, the pub etc as mentioned.

MN is the worst possible place to be at the moment, it is more pessimistic than absolutely any actual scientist or doctor I know (and I know a lot of both), most of whom are concerned but pragmatic.

The 12-18 months figure that is being bandied about is, I suppose, the worst-case scenario if there are literally no improvements in treatment, no learning about how to improve management etc before a vaccine has been found or it has passed through most of the population.

I gather the gov is saying today expect 6 months of disruption, which seems realistic - can't see kids going back to school before September.

@Stellamboscha that's shocking , I'm furloughed and I absolutely would love to go back to work . A couple of days of work would give me some purpose but I'm not a key worker . My dc is obviously not in school either and my dh is working and is a key worker.
To exploit the situation is wrong it shows people for who they are .

Did anyone hear Neil Ferguson on radio 4 just now? I didn't, but guardian reports that he said that hospital admissions appear to be slowing a bit so the infection rate may be slowing although not yet plateauing (so a little unclear, but I haven't worked out how to do the radio equivalent of i-player!).

Interestingly he also is reported as saying that the 'had you ever had it?' test may be rolled out, he hoped, "within days if not weeks" (yes I know). Interesting because that test has not been mentioned much over the weekend.

So, some tentatively more positive input for you (and the rest of us!) op.

@fromlittleacorns yes, I heard that too. Don’t want to get overexcited but sounds potentially very positive.

News articles here:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-uk-showing-early-signs-21778057.amp

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/30/politics-latest-news-government-adviser-neil-ferguson-says-early/amp/

The short version is that he is saying that there are ‘early signs’ that the rates of infection are slowing in the UK. The main sign being rates of hospital admission (slowing meaning that they are still increasing but the rate at which the numbers increase is slowing in pace). The death rates are lagged 1-2 weeks behind the infection rates so we wouldn’t expect to see them follow the same pattern just yet.
But the best way to understand the pattern of infection rates is through antibody testing (looking at who has had it already).

2-3 months of lockdown, I suspect. The last three days of cases are quite promising in the U.K, already stable at around 2,500 new cases per day.

That is good news!

Although remember, we have to accept that without a vaccine, any drop in restriction will cause cases to rise again, so although I am trying to be on the optimistic side, it is not a case of lockdown 'just being a few weeks' until the first peak passes - even at that point only a single figure % of the population will have had it.

I have seen an encouraging post from a British ex-pat in China saying how the seven weeks actually passed pretty quickly and some more things were returning to normal, though.

Colleagues in our Hong Kong office had been back there for 2-3 weeks, but had returned to working from home after someone in the building was diagnosed, although HK did come down very hard and tested very extensively, so a different approach from here.

About a fortnight ago we decided to move our daughter's bat mitzvah, which was down for mid-June, to next year (as it happens, our synagogue has just started moving girls' bat mitzvahs to age 13 like boys, rather than 12). It seemed and still seems to us that the best case scenario for this year would be that we'd have a tiny gathering of the minimum allowed to hold a service (10 people) and no party, but I suspect the synagogue will not have reopened then. I really feel for anyone with a wedding etc planned in the next few months!

But (more optimism again!) the position may be so different by then - testing and ppe in place, more ventilators and trained staff - that the way we can react to any renewed increase may also be different. I know i've said this before but worth bearing in mind - NHS capacity and treatments won't be static.

I also think some people may react very cautiously if the restrictions are lifted/relaxed - others may not - which may limit (but not eliminate, obviously) the impact on infection rates. 'May may may' I know, but then again this is the 'positive outlooks' thread.....