Lockdown over sooner than we think - positive outlooks

[oldbeforem]

I keep reading threads about this lasting 6 - 18 months.

I have had an operation cancelled with no date for it to be rebooked.

I need to think positively and believe that this will be over sooner than we think!

Anyone agree?

I read on Daily Mail (I know....) that the government have provisionally ordered 17.5 million antibody testing kits, they just need to be validated. Sounds hopeful!

I think theatres/museums/concerts and big gatherings etc may be off limits for a long while - maybe some venues, attractions and restaurants/cafes may find a way to operate at lower customer/visitor densities to lower risk?

I'm not 100% we'll even be able to have as big a gathering as planned for DD's bat mitzvah next year - or whether the venue we gave deposit to will still be in business. We'll have to review early next year, I guess.

I just want DS to hopefully get back to preschool before the end of the school year as he starts school in September and I worry it may be more of a shock than it was already going to be.

I'd like to see my parents, who DS also adores.

Who'

Sorry... whilst I worry for the economy, regards people working, shops opening etc my main concern is DS' education.

In a way I wouldn't worry too much about that @TobyeBella - it's better for it to happen now than if was in Reception/Y1 I'd say, when he might be in the middle of learning to read/do numbers and then you'd feel on the hook for making sure he can do that by the time things restart. He's young enough to be flexible in many ways.

I am very relieved DD is in Y7 and DS Y4 because neither is a major inflection point for their education, albeit it is a big social point for DD - I've only just got her a smart phone for this so she can keep in touch with friends and I've realised she actually needs quite a lot of guidance on how to start and sustain a conversation remotely!

If the gym would just re-open I honestly wouldn't complain about anything else. And I say that as someone who is locked down with two young, constantly demanding kids needing homeschooling and huge amounts of emotional support, a 'challenging' husband, and 70+ year old parents who need me to do their shopping.

I read a good comment that I'm not sure if it was by Caitlin Moran or if she was quoting someone else, but it was basically a column about talking to teenagers and the writer was saying they'd told their teen that basically, forget about this summer, it's going to be rubbish, there won't be any big events and quite possibly no travel.

But then next summer will be the most amazing, celebratory one ever in contrast!

I am still paying for my daughter's residential summer camp at the end of July, optimistically, but I would be surprised if it happens even if some restrictions have been lifted.

TobyeBella.

Same here. My son is in year 6 and I want him to finish it before secondary school and I also want my daughter to finish her reception year as well.

I hope that the schools open sooner than September

Although remember, we have to accept that without a vaccine, any drop in restriction will cause cases to rise again, so although I am trying to be on the optimistic side, it is not a case of lockdown 'just being a few weeks' until the first peak passes - even at that point only a single figure % of the population will have had it.

This ^ is the main problem I think. The lockdown doesn't solve the problem, it just postpones it, as when you release lockdown the cases will rise again.

Below is an interesting article about possible future patterns of spread and social distancing. I think they may need to keep relaxing things and then tightening them again, until we have a vaccine. Or might need to keep using mini-lockdowns in areas where cases rise.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/is-coronavirus-seasonal-summer

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/century-old-vaccine-investigated-as-a-weapon-against-coronavirus

This is very interesting.

My entire family have been telling me about the TB vaccine as a prevention! Apparently all the countries that aren't suffering badly with it have had the TB vaccine. A good contract is Spain/Portugal - similar demographic and cultures, one is suffering badly and one isn't. Spain stopped doing routine TB vaccine in 1981, Portugal in 2017.

*contrast even

Japan does it apparently.

China used to, but then stopped.

Italy don't.

@DisappearingGirl - yes, I think things will come and go. I can imagine a scenario, for example, where schools, and some work, goes back in September, and then things are locked down hard again January to March.

The TB vaccine is the BCG, right? That’s very interesting. I never had my BCG because my skin test reacted, meaning natural immunity, if I recall correctly.

It is.

But it doesn’t offer lifetime immunity, it needs boosters which aren’t done anymore. I think.

This thread is intolerable. Can you all try adding “I think” before you type your statements please. It would enable to me to read more than the first line without my eyeballs rolling into the back of my head.

Nobody knows anything. Everything at the moment is a guess. It’s just so annoying to hear people speaking as though they are God on this matter.

@JoanieCash Shh don't burst my bubble . Of course we will back in the old days by then .

Do you know what the beauty of a public forum is, Goingfarawsy?

You don't have to read and engage with all the comments.

Going,

Most of us have the intelligence to read selectively and know that everything written is preceded by an unwritten ‘I think’.

This is a chat forum, not a text book and, if anything were known with 100% certainty, the thread would be 2 posts long, with the second answering the question with irrefutable fact.

^^ Some people seem that they would only be happy if we said that the lockdown would last for years.

yes, I think things will come and go. I can imagine a scenario, for example, where schools, and some work, goes back in September, and then things are locked down hard again January to March

@Echobelly I agree something like this is likely. I think :)