Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

So it's 3rd April today - and Italy's number of cases is expected to peak between 3rd-10th April.

I know the data on daily new cases is by no means reliable, but the numbers we're getting are all we have to go on so it's the best we've got. For that reason I will continue charting it and hope to see a steady decline in the next week.

We've already gone from 6557 new daily cases 9 days ago to 4668 yesterday. Let's hope the trend continues today.

Apologies - 6557 was 12 days ago (21st March).

Sars-CoV-2 infection / transmission in animals
(my translation from German to English)

https://www.vetion.de/fokus/Coronavirus--Sars-CoV-2/115/

The Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI) started a few weeks ago with infection studies in pigs, chickens, fruit bats and ferrets.

The first results have now been published, showing that fruit bats and ferrets are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection

While ferrets can be infected efficiently with SARS-CoV-2, multiply the virus well and transmit it to other species,
there is no transmission in fruit bats

Under the test conditions,
neither pigs nor chickens were found to be susceptible to infection
with SARS-CoV-2.

According to the current state of knowledge,
they are not affected by the virus and therefore do not pose any potential risk to humans.

In the infection studies, SARS-CoV-2 was administered to the animals' noses to mimic the natural route of infection in humans via the nasopharynx.

Ferrets could therefore be an animal model that reflects human infection.

The complete evaluation of all test series will take some time, with the final results expected in early May.

There is also a preprint of a publication from China on March 30, 2020 for the journal nature, in which infection attempts with SARS-CoV-2
were successful in cats, while the virus was only able to reproduce weakly in dogs.

In these tests, cats, like ferrets, excreted the infectious virus and were able to infect others by droplet infection.

Sorry I missed all the hoohah over the post barraker. I'd read it but never assumed for one second you hadn't posted without permission of making it sure to be anonymous. I'd have defended you if I'd read the subsequent attacks.

This thread has been useful and I've learnt so much that will be useful in everyday life.

I'm hoping our figures today will remain under 600. I know we will probably get and expect high figures but it would be good if they stayed high but stable rather than continuously rising.

please don't let people like Bearbehind put you off posting. They might not like hearing the truth but it's their choice to come on threads like this one. If they don't want to hear bad news they don't need to open the post, it's ridiculous to wring your hands and report people for posting things that scare you when it was your choice

I didn’t report that post because it ‘scared’ me

I don’t doubt it was all true and it’s awful if it is

My point is and still was that it is not on for people to share identifiable information when they are posting second hand stories

Whether it was the OP or her mother, the only person with the right to decide if they want that information shared on social media is the actual nurse herself

The current quest on these threads for posting the most shocking stories appears to be preventing people applying common sense and good judgement before they post information they have no right to share unless they anonymise it or have the explicit permission of the person involved

Matt Hancock has said it's possible the virus could peak over Easter weekend (as we've been expecting) and that Easter Sunday could have the highest death toll of the epidemic with around 1,000 deaths.

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-health-britain-pea/uk-peak-of-coronavirus-outbreak-could-be-easter-sunday-health-minister-idUKKBN21L1MH

I thought Easter weekend would be the UK peak in terms of new infections, not deaths.

Back to the actual topic - is there any more info on the back dated nursing home deaths included in France’s numbers yesterday

I’ve not been able to find much

A first, provisional estimate of “at least 884” deaths at nursing homes was finally announced on Thursday, though officials cautioned that many homes were yet to report. And in the absence of widespread testing of residents, it is not clear how the government plans to collect and verify the figures.

The above is from France 24 - it sounds like there are more to come. Full article here: www.france24.com/en/20200403-as-coronavirus-creeps-into-french-care-homes-a-tsunami-of-deaths-unnumbered

The opening sentence is sad: "Long a neglected branch of French healthcare, care homes for the elderly are accustomed to working in the shadows, their losses unremarked."

Thanks utterly - that makes pretty grim reading doesn’t it?

GIF showing the progression of global lockdowns by date

www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F13f6c498-75a0-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=490

Big Choc - oh dear ,don't like the sound that cats might become infected and transmit ....

I think the study on animals in really worrying! They’ve been exposed to a high dose of the virus and MIGHT be able to the transmit it.
But it was under artificial conditions so not massively reliable.
We don’t need pets dumped during this lockdown due to scaremongering

I know someone who just bought a kitten.

Oh god
684 deaths
3605 total

Apparently 684 have died today

I'm really getting concerned about the proportion of each day's death statistics and how few of the deaths quoted each day are actually from the previous day.
I think there is an extremely large lag, and each day's stats comprise deaths stretching back a long time.

If this is the case, then what we are observing each day is not even close to being current, and we may have to wait days before we properly understand what the true toll is and how it is evolving.

The data we all saw a few days ago in the press was date stamped, and it could be seen that some of the deaths reported on that day stretched back weeks.
Today, I've read that on Thursday, 561 deaths were reported, but only 84 took place in the 24 hours to 5pm on 1 April.

Yes, it’s very out of date. I thought the numbers on the 30th were weirdly low.

Does the death rate lag tally in some way then with what medics are reporting?

They feel like they are seeing massively more than is being reported. Which they are, but it’s down to a delay rather than anything more sinister.

I thought the numbers on the 30th were weirdly low.

On 30 March, 159 deaths were reported by NHS England. The true number of deaths on that day has since been revised up to 401

I’m concerned that the “new cases” stat is now capped by the amount of tests they can process in a day, as well. If they’re maxing out capacity we don’t have good visibility on case trends. Hospitalisation stats will therefore be important.

The delay seems to sit with public health and NHS England who release the compiled data.
It appears that the hospitals are reporting promptly, but then somehow the national bodies are introducing the lag. They report 'confirming figures' and 'validating' and 'seeking relatives' consent'.

It's really concerning.

new cases going up by 5% which is more positive.

Is there any lag coming from the weekend for the collation of deaths ?
Data collation by admin / tech might not be ft on the same 24/7 basis as frontline work

I read that the UK has now moved to an anonymised system that does not require the informing - and possibly tracing too - of Next of KIn
That would remove one reason for delay to date.

I'm surprised this wasn't the case at the beginning, but maybe this decision had to be organised and signed off by a chain of people.

I'm not sure how to regard the daily number of new UK cases, as this depends so much on the number of tests.
I am also cautious about the high death % of confirmed cases, for the same reason - too few tests

The number of positive tests as a % of the daily or weekly tests would be useful to track
Has anyone a table or graph for this ?

The total % from the start of the crisis would have too much old data for an exponentially changing situation

They did say on R4 why this was the case, not suppressing data, or even slowness due to bad practise (but maybe overwhelmed to a certain extent) but made sense at the time. Involving family notification.