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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

983 replies

Barracker · 29/03/2020 14:33

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil. Flowers

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
Bearbehind · 03/04/2020 09:17

OP, I have reported your post where you have published a PM.

That is absolutely dreadful behaviour - of course hospital can identify the person in question from that

You have put that poor nurse at risk of disciplinary action by posting something that was clearly confidential

peridito · 03/04/2020 09:29

I think the nurse will retain her anoyminity ,surely staff will be too busy to be reading MN and then trawling through shift patterns to identify her ?

And it was her mother who contacted Barracker not her .

LivinLaVidaLoki · 03/04/2020 09:31

Maybe perdito but the person pmd the info as they didnt want it posted. I'd be cross if someone did that to me.

pocketem · 03/04/2020 09:31

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Quartz2208 · 03/04/2020 09:42

If the person had wanted it to be common knowledge she would have posted not pm.

happinessischocolate · 03/04/2020 09:46

*OP, I have reported your post where you have published a PM.

That is absolutely dreadful behaviour - of course hospital can identify the person in question from that

You have put that poor nurse at risk of disciplinary action by posting something that was clearly confidential*

But the poster said she changed certain info, so the nurse could be male, old, worked there for years or not even at that particular hospital 🤷‍♀️

My worry would be there is a nurse who answers the description, but who has nothing to do with this. Although young? Female? Nurse? In a hospital? Must be loads of them.

Bearbehind · 03/04/2020 09:51

Really sick of tattle-tales like you. If you want to bury your head in the sand and don't want to hear what is going on, don't come in to a coronavirus news thread.

Goodness me, I’m not burying my head in the sand about how serious this is

I’m pointing out how appalling it is that someone who’s clearly sent something in confidence and has explicitly stated they don’t want it being made public as they’ve been told they would be in trouble for doing so, then has that confidence betrayed by it being published on a public forum

The post could have been anonymised by not naming the hospital

As it was, the person they are talking about could very easily be identified if the hospital read that

Bearbehind · 03/04/2020 09:54

But the poster said she changed certain info, so the nurse could be male, old, worked there for years or not even at that particular hospital

It named the hospital and referred to her ‘DD’ 🤔

It said identifying data had been redacted, not that the facts had been changed

Bearbehind · 03/04/2020 09:56

I think the nurse will retain her anoyminity ,surely staff will be too busy to be reading MN and then trawling through shift patterns to identify her

Many organisations have people who do exactly that - trawl the internet (using specialist software) looking for mentions of their establishment to check what is being said about them

peridito · 03/04/2020 10:09

Yes I did wonder about that .

However the post was posted and probably removed now .I think calling it disgusting behaviour is a bit strong .

The point has been made .Let's be kind to eachother and not argue .

Hoping said nurse is ok ,has food ,rest ,some support .And her poor mum manages a few moments off from constant worry .

Flowers to the many in these circumstances .

Bearbehind · 03/04/2020 10:14

peridito I do think ‘being kind’ starts with having the decency and awareness to not publish something that was clearly confidential rather than complaining about those of us who pointed out that it was unacceptable

If I were that mother I’d be even more worried about my DD now that has been published

People just need to think more about the consequences of their actions right now

hopefulhalf · 03/04/2020 10:15

Can we have more numbers and less bunfight please ?

NettleTea · 03/04/2020 10:30

In regard sputum tests this is something we know about a bit. My daughter has cystic fibrosis and quite regularly has to have sputum samples taken. In the past they did nasal swabs when she was small but they really were not that great. And they were looking for bacteria which are much bigger and more robust.
Once she got old enough to do a form a chest clearance called autogenic drainage, which allows you to shift stuff from deep in the lungs, the samples are much better, but they can also miss stuff.
One time they hadnt found anything although she was very ill, and it wasnt until they did a lung flush that they found stuff dislodged that was really deep in her lungs.

However I dont know how this would relate to this virus as although it appears to attach to lung tissue, Im assuming they are looking for it being shed as it actively takes over cells, and being caught up in mucus within the lungs. From the progression of sore throat to upper respiratory pain, Im assuming its progressing downwards as it goes, so depending upon where it has progressed to, may prove easier or more difficult for the 'shedding' to be picked up?

As an aside, Kings in my daughters specialist hospital and I know her unit has been taken over as a specific Corvid ward as has state of the art respiratory equipment

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 03/04/2020 10:47

I’m scared to watch the Channel 4 report about care homes.

Back to numbers, HSJ is reporting deaths in two private hospitals, this is a first:

www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-first-private-hospitals-record-fatalities/7027212.article

Princess Grace was presumably commandeered for CV19 (can anyone confirm that?)

www.hcahealthcare.co.uk/facilities/the-princess-grace-hospital/units-and-teams/icu-at-the-princess-grace-hospital

Royal Hospital for Neuro-Disability, however, is very much the kind of place that needs to be kept CV19 free:

www.rhn.org.uk/

1 CV19 death there is a really troubling situation.

www.rhn.org.uk/coronavirus/

Barracker · 03/04/2020 10:53

The poster who send me the message asked me to post it on this thread. That is why she sent me the message. I double checked with her that she was sure she wanted me to post it. This post was at her request. I actually delayed posting it for a couple of days because I had reservations but she had explicitly asked me to.

I would never, NEVER have breached someone's confidence.
Thanks to those who gave the benefit of the doubt.

To those who didn't, before assuming 'disgusting behaviour', why not just ask a simple clarifying question - "do you have consent to post that?"

Don't be so quick to assume bad faith of others.

OP posts:
Bearbehind · 03/04/2020 10:59

OP I said it was dreadful, not disgusting

And I still stand by that to be honest

You didn’t make it at all clear that the sender wanted to you post it

And, the fact it so clearly identified the hospital has put that nurse at risk now, even if her mother condoned it

There’s clearly no point in me saying that people need to think about the consequences of what they post as many on here just want to hear the worst possible scenarios all the time

ScrimpshawTheSecond · 03/04/2020 11:04

BMJ article here regarding research from China. Small sample size, but suggests four fifths of cases are asymptomatic.

www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?fbclid=IwAR2HH5JsqfkEThX2WaIJ_cHtEasW1ZEw1j1wnJ7kqslrH1fRWWUKxtxOFCo

BirdandSparrow · 03/04/2020 11:14

932 deaths in Spain in the last 24 hours, down from 950 the day before. But more infections now than Italy (117,710 versus around 115,000 in Italy). From El Pais (Spanish) but if you scroll down a bit there's a graph of the daily death toll, hopefully 950 was the peak elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04-03/ultima-hora-y-noticias-del-coronavirus-en-directo.html

BigChocFrenzy · 03/04/2020 11:15

barracker You were very careful and responsible in checking with your friend
Don't worry about this;
like most of us I expect, I assumed you had permission to post this and I would have asked you if I were concerned

Unfortunately, NHS staff are being gagged about some issues, such as the lack of PPE,
e.g. Doctors Association UK:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/31/doctors-gagged-revealing-fears-dont-enough-protective-kit-12485178/

It is a lesser risk for them to ask someone else to post about what is happening, rather than to do so themselves

Censorship is not helpful in addressing problems, rather than merely hiding them

Danceswithwarthogs · 03/04/2020 11:27

Nettle,

As I understand PCR testing (in a related medical field), it is not a whole, live virus you are trying to find but a scrap of Viral DNA/RNA, this can be tiniest sample which is then amplified massively, a bit like modern forensic DNA testing. Much more sensitive than bacteriology swabs which require a good sample well preserved enough to keep the bacteria alive to culture in the lab. As virus colonises nose/throat first it would figure that you shouldn’t need a sputum sample to diagnose.

TheCanterburyWhales · 03/04/2020 11:30

Barracker, I'm sure those of us who have come to know you through these threads know that you would never post anything "dreadful" or sensationalist. Flowers

Danceswithwarthogs · 03/04/2020 11:31

But I guess patients that are severely ill and coughing up fluid will have a higher viral load and so testing will pick up more virus

BigChocFrenzy · 03/04/2020 11:48

The initial German target of cases only doubling every 10 days has been made tighter because of long ICU stays.

German lockdown started 16 March and will continue until at least 19 April, probably longer.

Merkel:

"Treatment of severe Covid 19 cases in ICU takes on average significantly more than two weeks, which is longer than expected earlier.

Therefore, we need the number of sick people to only double every "12, 13, 14 days
We want to avoid being overwhelmed [healthcare system]

That is why we can only go from step to step, from date to date."

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/kontaktbeschraenkungen-deutschland-101.html

chomalungma · 03/04/2020 12:15

As I understand PCR testing (in a related medical field), it is not a whole, live virus you are trying to find but a scrap of Viral DNA/RNA, this can be tiniest sample which is then amplified massively, a bit like modern forensic DNA testing

You just need viral RNA - and a primer that is specific for the RNA.

Then you make cDNA and then you amplify it up

RNA is very sensitive to degradation and cross-contamination. If you get any RNA from another sample in, then you can get false positives.

pocketem · 03/04/2020 12:20

Barracker thank you for the information, and please don't let people like Bearbehind put you off posting. They might not like hearing the truth but it's their choice to come on threads like this one. If they don't want to hear bad news they don't need to open the post, it's ridiculous to wring your hands and report people for posting things that scare you when it was your choice