Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Comparison of droplet transmission with / without face masks

Fascinating video comparison

The primary way of person-to-person corona virus transmission is via aerosols or small droplets created by breathing, sneezing or coughing.

The reach of exhaled air can be effectively reduced using a face mask as shown in the video.

A simple Schlieren imaging technique is applied to visualize the air flow caused by a person breathing and coughing.

Using a face mask the exhaled air flow is blocked reducing effectively the risk of infection.

Also nicely shown is the heat transfer from the body to the cooler ambient air

and this simulation shows the busrt of droplets even if you cough into an elbow
(I did a few CFD simulations in the distant past, but not on this)

BCF Yep, before it got a chance to walk out under its own steam.

So basically, facemasks protect other people from you, but anything they cough or breathe onto you would just get stuck on your facemask and if it's a rubbish one you're going to breathe those droplets in every time you inhale

BCF tmi alert - if DH sneezes in the car, I have to open the windows - they're foul I really think 20m would be too close for some of his bunker busters.

Am I the only one who think sneezes don't smell?

Facemasks primarily protect other people

If nearly everyone wears one, then everyone is protecting everyone else
This is what may have helped in Asian countries where masks are a cultural norm anyway

If one person infects an average of 3.5 others, then if a mask can reduce this, it is a far less onerous measure for ordinary life and for the economy than most of the other social distancing measures

I'm not sure how much your own droplets would infect you ?

The Graun was claiming that facemasks can also protect the wearer by a factor of up to X 5, if they are changed regularly and then disposed of sensibly

< With those sneezes, pussycat in a mask might be better than in boots >

Latest figures from Italy:

31st March: 4053 new cases and 837 new deaths

1st April: 4782 new cases and 727 new deaths

2nd April: 4668 new cases and 760 new deaths

(Source: Worldometer)

Thanks BigChoc that makes sense

And if you look at the graph showing Italy’s daily new cases (2nd graph down in the below link) it definitely looks like Italy is coming down the other side of the peak (which I think we can safely say was 6557 new cases on 21st March):

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Worldometer is showing 1,355 deaths in France today ☹️

I'm finding the facts and statistics have really calmed my anxiety around this whole thing (as awful and scary as the rates are), I prefer logic and science to hysterical speculation as seen on other threads.

Me too - this is the only thread I look at on the coronavirus board now. The others send my anxiety through the roof!

Worldometer is showing 1,355 deaths in France today

But note the Worldometer also says this: “2116 new cases and 1355 new deaths in France, including 884 fatalities in nursing homes that occurred over a period of several weeks and that were announced only today.”

So 471 deaths not including the 884 which is lower than yesterday.

RE France figures- I was thinking that was a HUGE jump- terrifying!

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Thursday April 2nd

Total UK cases: 33,718
New UK cases: 4,244
Total UK Deaths: 2,921
New UK Deaths: 569

What has happened about the discrepanies, didn't the 4 nations tolls add up to 636 or something?

561 of the 569 cases today are in England, however the other 3 nations obviously contributed more than the remaining 8, having offered figures of 50, 19, and 6, totalling 75. Presumably the shortfall of 67 missing cases will be swept into tomorrow's figures.

However the shoddy reporting and disjointed release of data is not great. I hope the Dept of Health and Social Care get their act together and coordinate the release properly going forward.

So tomorrow's figures might look much bigger? Does this make it harder to see how it's developing if the figures jump about?

That’s terrible re. France and do many care home fatalities. What a horrible way to end your life 😔

FT article with some info about the care home fatalities.
Absolutely appalling situation for residents and staff. One I am scared is going to be repeated here.

www.ft.com/content/58ece0fb-d297-495e-8889-da216410f2c3

Evidence from Italy and Spain suggests that in the worst-hit areas, excess mortality is double the reported number of COVID deaths:
twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1245739674443939840

That's so stark Barracker but entirely credible.