Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Ahhhh thanks nauticant
Every days a school day. Though I must be naive as I'd completely skimmed past the plopper (actually think I quite like that word in a juvenile way).

nauticant I thought they turned up, shat n left oops.
Every day's a school day!

Nothing to add other than we are all looking to Italy for hope.

I'm still horrified at another near on 600 mortalities.

But am I wrong in thinking this isn't even the infections from that weekend before the proper lockdown? I've lost track of time!

But are these infections before things like closure of pubs and restaurants and schools etc which happened over 3-6 days before the proper lockdown?

These will be the infections of social distancing recommended but not enforced.

itsgettingweird, 28 days ago we had had the handwashing advice, and some people/companies were starting to cancel events, avoid public transport etc. So some people certainly were changing their behaviour, but as you say, before the other measures.

Schools only closed 13 days ago so the impact will probably not be significant for another week or so. However, people were starting to distance and self isolate before that.

So it's very likely we will still see a daily rise for a few weeks to come? I'm not sure my heart can handle this

Livin- no I know, my comments weren't addressed at you at all, but at the ploppery and ostrichery going on.

NotDavidTennant- the Italian Protezione Civile, the ISS and government and the projections from Imperial College (among others) the Koch institute etc are all saying the Italian peak is between those days.

Obviously, as others have said, until the plateauing becomes a downward curve then it's still just a plateau. Once it starts going down, the peak of Coronavirus in Italy has been passed.

Also likely to see a rise in confirmed infections as the number of tests being done increases - maybe they will also give a 'like for like' figure for comparison.

the ploppery and ostrichery

My guess is 3 weeks from lockdown to see any slow down in the rate of increase in infections reach hospital and another 1-2 weeks for that to filter through to the death rate.

reaching

On the sex/gender thing, whilst it is likely to be both Caroline Criandez-Perez (sp?) writer of Invisible Women highlighted this from her (fabulous) book - previous research on flu viruses have suggested women's bodies fight them better - it was something to do with oestrogen bonding to ... something .... I can't find the ref at the mo, but she's tweeted it in the past. Unfortunately, as women tend to be under researched in medical papers (due to 'complex' hormones and ethics around potential pregnancy) there's not as much known as there should be about sex differentials...

There was a thread in FWR on this a couple of weeks ago

Iirc it's also as pregnancy and breastfeeding are linked to a woman's immune system.

And also why more women tend to get autoimmune diseases.

Women are more likely to catch a cold when they're at the lowest point of their oestrogen cycle too.

At the moment it is 3 weeks since Cheltenham and the Liverpool v Athletico match so people who were infected there are probably just hitting the numbers now. I don’t think the areas and people they infected before lockdown would be captured yet.

I know people came from all over to those events but I'd guess we may see spikes locally?

Obviously, as others have said, until the plateauing becomes a downward curve then it's still just a plateau. Once it starts going down, the peak of Coronavirus in Italy has been passed.

Possibly we are using different definitions of the peak here then.

To me the way you'd find the peak would be to fit a curve to the numbers and find the inflection point. That would most likely be somewhere in the middle of the plateau, rather than the end.

Pussycatinboots You threw away The Dressing Gown of Doooom !

find the inflection point

Yes, that would be an early indication of a reason to hope.

I just knew all that calculus from O and A levels would come in handy one day.

I think it's because there has been brief false hope before and then curves rising again,
so we want to see curves actually going down for a while
before we can be sure that the peak has passed and then calculate its inflection point

Hello, I've been lurking for ages - I'm finding the facts and statistics have really calmed my anxiety around this whole thing (as awful and scary as the rates are), I prefer logic and science to hysterical speculation as seen on other threads. So big thanks to you all!

Something I've been wondering, and apologies if it seems basic or daft, but here goes: earlier in the thread, or in the previous one, someone mentioned that some of the deaths in the daily numbers had actually occurred days before - so not all the deaths in the daily numbers occurred on the same day.
Does this not mean the graphs aren't actually accurate? As in, if the daily numbers were deaths that had occurred the day before only, might we be seeing a slightly less steep incline?

moo It is likely that all along there has been a little delay in reporting deaths, in all countries, for logistical reasons

However, imo the "real death curves" would more likely have a time offset to the ones we have, rather than a change in gradient

Just my take, anyway