Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 2

[Barracker]

A follow on thread from here

Please try to keep it data driven, factual and civil.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

367 die in England

That's terrible

Clearly my optimism after the declining figures of the last two days was misplaced.

Fuck😢

Is today’s number counting deaths from outside hospital though? Would that account for the big rise; have they added all deaths so far outside hospital to numbers?

Nquartz
I'd like to say a big thank you to those in other countries who are contributing, it's really interesting to hear your perspectives. Also just out of interest, are you brits living abroad or natives?

British, resident in Luxembourg.

‘One death reported on Monday actually occurred on 13 March in Mid Essex hospital services NHS trust, a 17-day lag. Another, first reported on Saturday, actually occurred in Sandwell and West Birmingham hospitals NHS trust on 13 March.‘
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/england-and-wales-coronavirus-death-toll-40-higher-than-previously-stated

So does that still doesn’t include the deaths external to hospitals, as the ONS figures for that are only available for last week, yes?

Though does that not now include that extra 104, so it's not as bad as it sounds? The jump is 263, obviously bad but not double the previous.

I've noticed the figs seem to be quite cyclical. Don't know if something happens that causes a lag in collation/reporting over the weekend.
Plus if they added all the deaths outside hospital in one tranche that would artificially inflate the figures

My understanding is that that doesn’t include the non-hospital deaths

Is today’s number counting deaths from outside hospital though? Would that account for the big rise; have they added all deaths so far outside hospital to numbers?

I'm not sure - if they have then the 367 will include 103 (I think?) deaths that have occurred outside of hospital.

Gosh that's a larger jump than I think any of us anticipated.

I'm another wondering if that includes the deaths recorded out of hospital

@DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG
On the travellingtabby website for Scotland's numbers it says this:

Todays numbers are larger than normal because of some delayed tests over the weekend)

Today brought 430 new infections, which is a massive jump from yesterdays 179 new infections, and the most in a single day so far.

In total, there are now 1,993 confirmed infections in Scotland. The total number of infections has risen by 28% from yesterday, and 60% from three days ago.

This means that 0.037% of the population have been infected, although the actual number is likely much, much higher.

Most people will recover from the virus within 2 weeks. So if we assume that only the new cases from the past 2 weeks are ‘active’, then that means there are currently about 1798 active cases, 60 deaths, and 135 recoveries

So I assume Nicola was talking about the lag and why there was such a jump

Youngest was 19

The BBC said the UK’s figure today if 1,801 is solely who died in hospital.
The BBC also say 40 in the community to 20th March (like The Guardian) - not sure where they get that number from...

Just lost a giant, carefully researched post and can’t face typing it again. Here it is in list form instead:

Re: Portsmouth/Hampshire

2 weeks ago experts said it could be high levels of testing (one of the testing labs is in Southampton) or population/number of people covered by the ‘top tier’ Trust:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/hampshire-news/hampshire-coronavirus-highest-number-uk-17943183.amp

There were three confirmed cases in Winchester school pupils (3 different schools) by March 13th:

www.hampshirechronicle.co.uk/news/18303910.henry-beaufort-school-pupil-diagnosed-coronavirus/

But a Hampshire private school was closed as early as Feb 10th? Not sure how this case panned out, no test results at the time of the story:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7987667/amp/Private-school-closes-pupils-relatives-isolation-coronavirus-fears.html

(As a comparison, greater Manchester closed a primary school on the 17th due to confirmed cases in 2 teachers and another on the 19th due to a teacher testing positive. Can’t find anything at all about testing MCR children during the ‘containment’ period)

Stories from nearby counties:

3rd confirmed case diagnosed in Brighton 6th Feb:

www.nursingtimes.net/news/public-health/third-uk-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-06-02-2020/

First recorded death 5th March in Reading:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/6a6e6abc-5ece-11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98

The chap who think he might be ‘patient zero’ for the UK lives about 65 miles from Portsmouth:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/uk-patient-zero-east-sussex-family-may-have-infected-coronavirus/amp/

As of 5 days ago he still hadn’t been tested:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8155687/amp/British-skiers-filmed-partying-epicentre-Austrian-coronavirus-outbreak.html

The BBC are reporting it as 393 cases including Wales, NI and Scotland - the 367 are England only 😢

"It comes as a further 393 people with coronavirus have died in the UK - the biggest daily total so far.”

BREAKING: A further 367 die as England's death toll reaches 1,651

This makes no sense? Yesterday was a total of 1408

I'm British/Irish living in Spain. I'm not in the slightest surprised but the big jump today in the UK figures. Obviously it's terrible news, but not in the least surprising, in fact if anything I'm surprised it's not been climbing faster.
New record death toll for Spain today.

1408 was UK, not England.

That's just in England, grey sparkles. Uk figure over 1,800 I think

BREAKING: A further 367 die as England's death toll reaches 1,651

I think that’s just England? Uk wide is around 1800 I think.

Do we have the figures for new cases yet? I'm more interested in tracking them, because it gives a more current indication of if measures are working.
The people dying were infected probably 2-3 weeks ago at the earliest.

😥 so sad. Has anyone found out if that includes the figures from ONS. That ties in with the big jump on the 16 days behind Italy chart.

@QuentinWinters I had wondered the same, there was quite a spike last Tuesday too, so I wonder if it could be something to do with testing in hospital post mortem at weekend?
And @Greysparkles that figure yesterday was the whole UK, the figure you have quoted today is just England.

Almost exactly tracking Italy on that 16 day graph