Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

@doofusmoof I'm aware of all the different ways people may struggle during this crisis. I'm experiencing some of them myself. But using those as an argument for the government not taking action is imbecilic. Sadly, we will just have to manage, because none of those reasons can take precedence right now.

@doofusmoofb 1 million have already died because of covoid 19, we are at the very beginning of this.

Yes that's exactly what I said Captain, but as the NHS isn't yet overwhelmed, why would you want to lock down earlier? Where there are issues in the NHS, it's because of staff absence not lack of facilities. As keyworkers would have been excluded from any earlier lockdown , it would have made no difference to that, in fact you could argue that it is better for NHS staff to be affected earlier so they are back at work before things get really bad.

If anything too late.
Judging by the fatality rate, official numbers are massively underestimated

But mental health will be badly affected and suicide will rise from the effects of a rampaging virus destroying the healthcare system.

Lockdown or unchecked virus: both options screw the economy. Both options cost lives. Both options shatter mental health. Both options cause suicide, financial ruin, trauma and despair. We are choosing between bad options. It will be terrifying for the nation’s mental health if we have so many bodies that undertakers can’t remove them from people’s homes. That’s happened in Italy. That’s just one monstrous and traumatic consequence of the virus. No one has a crystal ball, but locking down and slowing the spread seems to cost the least even though it still takes an immense and terrible toll.

Actual numbers are likely to be 50-100 000 instead of 17 000.

@LittleDragonGirl you don’t understand the disease- please go and read about it before posting nonsense!!! [hmmm] (Which only serves to worry already anxious people). This is a mild disease for the vast majority of people who get it. Older and vulnerable people are more likely to get complications requiring respiratory support. Those are the people who need ventilators for a few days. So 18,000 does not equate to this currently with the disease, but also those who have recovered. So only a proposition of 18,000 have at one time, and only small numbers will need ventilators.

When firms who exist to make money are sending staff home way before the government did anything, it is clear the government did too little too late

And what CaptainBrickbeard has just written.

OP, one reason I think earlier lockdown might have helped is it gives us longer to get the PPE which healthcare workers so desperately need and don’t yet have. The NHS isn’t prepared for this. It has to be slowed as much as possible to get them ready.

@esjee the government has taken action though. Do people really think someone from the government could have come on tv when we had 5 deaths & told everyone to stay inside that people would listen to them? How will it be enforced without people onside?

@alloutoffucks My figures are about the UK not global

No, I think it was too late. Italy and Spain both left it later than they should have and cases have rude. USA havent got lockdown and they have more cases than anywhere else.
China whin had very stringent lockdown quite early is now coming out of the peak period.

Best analigy they gave was lockdown like turning off a tap off to stop the spread get on top off it then slowly turn it back on infection rates rise then back off to get on top off and keep repeating the cycle

IF lockdown is the correct response, then why on earth would you relax measures only to allow more infections, then more lockdown... fucking crazy idea.

IMHO Korea is the way fwd, mass testing, isolation for those infected, destroying the economy and a worldwide global depression, which will kill millions, is a flawed policy.

I agree with you, OP

@LittleDragonGirl There are more ventilators than that in the UK- the 8000 is the number the NHS had access to, there are ventilators from the military and private hospitals too.

We do still need more.

@Makeitgoaway you're not understanding how this thing multiplies.

The hospitals are currently coping, yes. But Lockdown isn't about changing what is happening now. It's about changing what happens in about 12-18 days from now, when people who were infected before Lockdown are likely to be at their sickest. The number of infections appears to double every 4-5 days, in most countries (Spain has been worse, which is one of the things that made UK government change their minds about the plan). This means that in 10 days, there will be 4x as many covid-19 patients (roughly, noone can know for sure). This is what would happen without Lockdown. However, we have had a Lockdown, which may prevent this number from continuing to rise. We'll know more in about 10 days. I hope it's good news, because hospitals cannot cope with 4x as many covid 19 patients as they currently have.

I don't think we acted quick enough!

We can't, all we can do is change the timing

As PP have said, timing is the absolutely crucial thing at the moment. As well as slowing the spread for the reasons explained aboe, the other essential thing lockdown buys us is time. Time to prepare, as far as possible, additional hospital facilities, procure protective equipment and ventilators, train as many staff to use them as possible.

I'm not arguing that restrictions aren't necessary ( not arguing at all, just pondering) but I am concerned that the timing of them needs to be right because I dont know how long we can maintain them for. If it is a out 3/4 weeks, then the people will be at the end of their tether just as it becomes most important.

Too late not too early - the worst is yet to come, you’ll be able to understand that within a week sadly.

would give her ample morphine for pain to help her on her way and not ventilate

She wouldn’t be ventilated. She wouldn’t get ample morphine either. Shipman saw to that.

Our workers do not have PPE that meets WHO recommendations. Bloody bin bags and surgical masks. Have you seen the coverage od what medics area wearing in China?
The UK response is wholly inadequate. And some medics will die because of this.

I think people’s tethers might prove longer than we knew. I think we will have to cope with more than we thought we could. I’m not saying that is easy or that mental illness can be cured with better resilience or minimising the effects of lockdown. But keep comparing it to the alternative and what happens to society, public health, etc if the virus isn’t kept as controlled as possible.

No we were at the brink of capacity when the restrictions were introduced. I’d say the timing was close enough as it can be.

I've been wondering what will happen in Sweden and how it will compare with elsewhere in Europe when this all comes to an end. www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52076293?fbclid=IwAR0NNS3nG38Em0CKm9wS51PEaK4HHp-WTO_tv2xJO7cmYl2bAVpWp0-_nuw