Did UK introduce restrictions too early?

[Makeitgoaway]

Hear me out!

I don't think they planned to close schools when they did. I think the Welsh and Scotish governments forced their hand and they themselves were influenced by public opinion more than the science.

When I first heard "the plan" it sounded like there were terrible things to come but it made sense to me, as a way of controlling things as much as possible.

The public didn't like it and there was outrage that we didn't "lockdown" to protect ourselves, although "the public" also didn't behave in any sort of sensible manner to protect themselves as we saw last weekend.

So, measures were in force earlier than planned. The more restrictions there are and the earlier they are in place, the longer this thing will last. The restrictions don't protect "us", they protect the NHS. Most people will need to get it before this is over. Lockdown won't make it go away, just slow the rate of infection, meaning it takes longer to play out. While the NHS is coping, was there any need for the restrictions?

In Italy, it has taken 3 weeks for signs of social unrest to emerge. If that happens here we won't be even close to the peak at that stage. What happens then?

*incubates

Yes, slow car crash is right. Have had this feeling of dread since January when I saw the first reports coming out of Wuhan. Kept thinking, well now they'll act. Then Italy, well, surely now, now's the time to jump out of the way.
And all the time you're doing the maths, reading the clinical reports, looking at the growth curve and you know what's coming but can do nothing about it. I always wondered what it would be like to have the power of foresight and not be listened to...it's utterly totally shit.
And this will be so binary. We will see which countries got it right, and which didn't. They tried to save the economy but they failed to realise the economy is actually made up of people. A healthy population is a prosperous one. Now we have an infected population with questionable immunity and the economy has gone to hell too. The worst of both worlds.

cornettoninja

No but the numbers of deaths per day now are significant, even if they represent the peak it's still very high, we must surely think that having acted a bit quicker and having a lower daily death rate would be better.

Oh yes they most definitely are, I’m just saying I don’t think this is the worst just yet.

I have been reading some interesting stuff about the logic of timing closures and lockdowns. The problem with reacting too early means that you then are going to be susceptible to your peak happening later on and really you need controlled waves of infection that are manageable within health service resources. It’s also an opportunity to get the public on board with strategies for reducing transmissions as restrictions are relaxed.

I found the original plans extremely distasteful but what we’re doing now is still a version of it but in a way that hopefully offers the most people the best chance. Ultimately we have nothing to defend ourselves from this virus but our own immune systems and supportive care. It’s global which means to a degree we’re also at the mercy of other countries responses.

It’s just spin really, and it pains me to say it, but in the absence of any cures or vaccines the Tory plan was/is the most logical. It would have been more reassuring to explain the aim was to ensure everyone could get the opportunity for the care they need rather than tell us all some of us will die, but that’s not really important right now.

We will need more prevalent testing alongside restrictions (and hopefully masks) the other side of the curve if we want to stand any chance of being able to function economically and socially.

Cornettoninja

Fair 'nuff

There was no need to react. We should have been proactive with tracing and border control. There was no need for this virus to take hold. Honestly....

Also the idea that our economic crisis would be helped by lifting restrictions early and enjoying a second wave is ridiculous. Literally no one thinks this, not even the WHO which has arguably been criminally cautious, in homage to their business funding, throughout.

There was no need to react. We should have been proactive with tracing and border control.

Agreed. We had time to see this coming - we could have paid far more attention to who was coming in, and and acted with far more decisiveness about quarantining those who were at risk of bringing the virus in. A strong focus on testing, focusing on those who had been out of the country initially, and on making sure those at risk of actually having the disease were not mixing in society until they were tested, could have delayed this for much longer.

And carrying on testing and quarantining would then have been a better strategy than letting it run. But once they had decided to "let it run" there was no way back to containing it.

Of course, if they had taken those actions, before we all fully appreciated the chaos this would cause, we would all have complained like anything. So now, because it was too difficult to quarantine all returning travellers for 2 weeks, we are all facing a much more difficult time. Hindsight, and all that...

Whatever was done, it would just have delayed this, not prevented it happening. Timing-wise, if this is going to come in waves, surely we want to try and avoid the next wave coming at the peak of the winter flu season?

Walkaround I agree with you I think (hard to be totally sure how things would have gone). It will be interesting to see countries in the West who have locked down very early get to vaccination.

It’s a long old haul if you don’t have the political structure of China or the post-SARS implementation as Taiwan.

It is a question of thinking things through, foreseeing likely problems and planning.

Re the past, we were given advice at the end of Jan certainly if not before about preventing it becoming what it has become. Possibly not preventing it happening completely, but preventing it getting as bad as it has.

If people had been aware of how deadly it was, many people would have taken personal responsibility so as to not get it or not spread it - at the most basic level it is to do with keeping your distance and being careful about surfaces and coughing into arms etc. And for the future, masks, gloves for future incidences.

Re the future, it isn't a matter of saying "this is going to come in waves" it is a matter of being in control of the waves and the size of the waves to the greatest extent possible.

S Korea had the tests available and the legislation, for example - this is what can be done now even if not to the same extent, so that the government is ready to act. Doctors from the far east were very clear with their information and warnings to the rest of world based on their experiences and research. On a positive note, the govmt has now built a hospital and is on the case re ventilators equipment and testing.

It is also a matter of thinking ahead about the economy now, detailed analysis about individual markets, mitigating measures, guidance.

Avoiding criminal gangs taking advantage of weaknesses after the worst of the virus.

walkaround

No. This isn't something you can get over with. Not unless you're fine with death and sending our NHS into a martyrdom they didn't sign up for and probably wouldn't put up with, quite rightly. If you think the best way is just to sail on through you're either callous or misinformed. There are other ways to deal with it. Look at South Korea, who have expertise in this area as a result of SARS. We should have been queuing up for a copy of their game plan since January.

Also, immunity isn't confirmed yet.

0vc - I’m neither callous nor misinformed. There are not enough resources in the world for every country to react like S. Korea. Yes, of course we should have stopped people flying in and tested and tracked like S. Korea, that would have been fantastic - except I don’t believe for a moment that however hard we tried to do it we were actually in a position to achieve what S. Korea has even if we had started in January. We should have been prepared for a pandemic well before this one was even known about - that’s how S. Korea reacted how it did... As you point out, they actually have expertise in the area and have dealt with it before, so were already prepared. This country, on the other hand, recently voted for the party of austerity. So in all honesty, it’s a bit dumb to argue we could have handled it like S. Korea if we had done more in January. We would still be in a situation where the global economy is paralysed by a virus that is highly contagious, already in most countries in the world and for which there is no vaccine, and competing with the whole of the rest of the world for resources to fight it - in an unseemly scramble. All we could have hoped for is a greater advantage over the other countries in the world to getting at the resources before they can get their hands on them.

And btw, I haven’t said we can “get over this” anyway. Just that now we are in this mess, we really need to avoid another wave happening in the winter flu season...

South Korea have done a great job no doubt but they can implement measures in a way that we might not accept. The below takes people with a different attitude to government intervention. Look at the would you be traced app. And any thread about police and overreaching with shopping etc.

Once a case was confirmed, the authorities tracked down the movement histories of the patient and traced the people they had contacted. The authorities worked with local governments to survey security camera footage, smartphone data, and credit card records to chart — down to the minute — the patients’ previous travels and contacts. The government also mandated and encouraged innovative ways of sharing this information. It used a GPS-tracking app to oversee and publicize patients’ movements in real time and penalize those that broke quarantine. Further, it invited companies to develop apps that visualized the patients’ anonymized location data and made them more accessible to the public. One such app — called the “Corona 100m” — alerted users when they came within 100 meters of the recent whereabouts of a coronavirus patient.

From here The Diplomat

Communal cohesion and the ability to fast track measures both lacking here.

And given the varied public reactions to the current lockdown, our population clearly bears very little resemblance to the population of South Korea. As a nation, we don’t appear to be nearly as compliant with instructions, nor tolerant of surveillance. You might as well argue our Government would have dealt with this better if it had a completely different population of people to deal with to the one currently in front of it and had started out with completely different resources at its immediate disposal. And had had completely different experts advising it. Which is all a waste of breath, given that none of that was the case, so it really is better now to focus on the situation we actually have.

Ha - whilst I was typing and hadn’t refreshed the page, I see MarshaBradyo said more or less the same thing!

Ha Walkaround yep!

As a nation, we don’t appear to be nearly as compliant with instructions, nor tolerant of surveillance I don't think that this is right. There are key differences it is true - eg the people in South Korea have been through this before, whereas people in the UK have not - but I don't think a fatalistic "the British wouldn't comply" is right. I linked an interview with a leading doctor in S Korea upthread, which is really interesting generally and worth watching, and he made the point that many young people in S Korea are ignoring the recommendations and guidelines, and partying, and going to clubs - it isn't just the UK. In relation to surveillance we have in fact accepted the fact that cameras are everywhere now. It would be a small step to use them to fight a disease.

We wouldn't have been able to replicate what S Korea did as their level of organisation and competence is very high, plus the shared experience, but more could have been done in the UK earlier to inform the population following the advice of the Asian doctors. There were very clear warnings - there is a Guardian article written in late Jan in which Prof Leung of Hong Kong is interviewed and he gave very stark warnings. In fact even now, judging by many of the threads on here, many perfectly responsible and compliant people are not aware of the relevant guidance and information. With more information, people are more likely to be compliant in relation to short term measures.

liberoncolours- there is a massive difference between accepting there is CCTV all over the place, which most people are aware of bur can tell themselves it isn’t there to spy on them in particular, and accepting that Government is scrutinising your credit card statements, forcing you to turn on location data on your phone, or possibly even using facial recognition to track you (China and Russia).
Yes, more could have been done, but more was not done. Even now, they are not telling everyone to wear face masks in public, even though that is the crystal clear message from the Asian countries you say we should be copying. That’s probably because they can’t even source enough for the NHS, let alone everyone else - and because however much they are told, in however simple the language, there are plenty of idiots of all ages and backgrounds who still aren’t doing as they are told anyway, because they can't see this virus, so don’t believe they should have to comply with what they are told, because it doesn’t make sense to them however simple the message. And the measures cannot be short term, anyway - this threat is not going away for a long time.

In relation to surveillance we have in fact accepted the fact that cameras are everywhere now. It would be a small step to use them to fight a disease.

I think it would be a very big step. We have become better at understanding our right to privacy when it comes to the state. I think you can see that on here with people aghast at various suggestions - tracking apps, even this lockdown.

I hear what you say, but not everyone is aghast at the measures now or would be if there were more measures.

Incidentally And the measures cannot be short term, anyway - this threat is not going away for a long time that isn't what the leading scientists are saying. Viruses can burn themselves out, mutate, many potential scenarios. They are saying it isn't certain but be prepared.

liberoncolours - I think your idea of what counts as short term and mine are probably different!